Situation Awareness: Bearish. Today’s rally — SPY +2.9%, QQQ +3.8% — pulled indices off multi-week lows but failed to breach their respective 200-day MAs. The session was driven by ceasefire optimism in the Iran conflict, with Trump signaling willingness to end operations even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Iran signaling readiness to de-escalate under guarantees. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive. Key context: geopolitical relief fueled risk-on, but oil settled above $100, and all majors remain below their 200-day MAs. The 40-day SMA breadth closed at 28.0% (vs. 22.4% prior), regime held at Bearish, with the 4% Bull/Bear gauge showing 624 bulls vs. 38 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery momentum but not yet a regime shift.
SIP: GCTK SXTP WVE AEHR
- What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 70 signals, D9M: 134 signals, Reversal: 181 signals — broad reversal scanning active
- Leading sectors: Technology (+3.98%), Industrials (+2.97%), Communication Services (0% change but +4.4% gain in earnings); leading themes: AI infrastructure, energy logistics, cloud distribution
- Key event: Iran’s president confirmed willingness to end the war with guarantees against attacks, prompting oil to drop $1.77 to $101.15 and triggering a broad sector rotation into tech and industrials
- Regime threading: morning SA called Bearish (22.4%), closing is Bearish (28.0%) — held, as breadth improvement remains shallow and leadership remains narrow (mega-cap tech led)
- DEP watchlist: AA, AMLX, ARK, SXTP, GCTK — all showing D9M reversal signal clustering
- SIPS: GCTK (Q4 revenue miss followed by 19.5% drop), SXTP (Q4 reported, +4.9% from open), DELL (Truist hold initiation, 200d support at $160)
Market Breadth — 2026-03-31
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Neutral |
| Bull 4% | 624 | Bear 4% | 38 |
| % > 20 SMA | 26% | % > 40 SMA | 28.04% |
| Bull 9M | 77 | Bear 9M | 7 |