Situation Awareness: Bearish. Market opened with broad gains after Friday’s selloff and early optimism on Iran, but faded as tech weakness (especially semis) and rising oil (to $102.92) overwhelmed the early bounce — SPY, QQQ, IWM all closed lower with no index data available; S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%, R2K -1.5%. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, with emphasis on early strength to fade and avoid new long entries until regime flips. Today’s defining context: geopolitical fatigue — initial Trump/Iran deal optimism evaporated as Israeli strikes in Tehran were confirmed and oil spiked, while Fed Chair Powell’s “tools don’t impact supply shocks” comment cooled rate-hike expectations (from >20% to ~5% probability). Regime context — 21.7% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 22.4% prior day, regime held at Bearish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 79 bulls vs. 322 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.
SIP: BALY IMSR AGRO RZLV
- What’s working today: Reversal: 82 signals, D9M: 48 signals, 2LYNCH: 0 signals — reversal plays dominated, continuation setups silent.
- Leading sectors: Energy (+5.0), Utilities (+1.25), Communication Services (-1.21); leading themes: energy strength on oil, soft tech sell-off, defense/infrastructure lagging.
- Key event — most impactful catalyst: Alaska Air ALK EPS guidance cut to $(2.00)-$(1.50) from $(1.50)-$(0.50) + fuel cost shock ($2.90–$3.00/gal), -5.5%.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Bearish (22.4%), closing is Bearish (21.7%) — held, as breadth narrow and only energy showed leadership.
- DEP watchlist: ARTL, CPB, ETR, MSTZ, NVD — top D9M signals with strongest setups.
- SIPS: FRMI, CRCA, LMRI — breakout candidates from Continuation scan with strong fund inflows or volume surge.
Market Breadth — 2026-03-30
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bearish | 40SMA | Bearish |
| Bull 4% | 79 | Bear 4% | 322 |
| % > 20 SMA | 15% | % > 40 SMA | 21.71% |
| Bull 9M | 8 | Bear 9M | 51 |