SPY|QQQ Wednesday 8AM 8/20/2025

August 20, 2025 3 min read

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
- Recent 30-Minute Chart Analysis: The SPY’s recent intraday chart shows mixed sentiment. Over the last 13 bars, prices in a narrow range suggest a consolidation phase. Volume spikes at certain price points indicate buyers and sellers are evenly matched.
- Volume Trends: There’s decreased volume in the last session, indicating potential exhaustion in the recent trend or awaiting a catalyst.
- Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages are flattening, reflecting indecision in the market.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
- Recent 30-Minute Chart Analysis: QQQ displays a bit more volatility than SPY, with notable swings in the morning session easing to a tighter range later.
- Volume Trends: Volume appears to have decreased, similar to SPY, but the price action suggests a slight bullish bias over the recent sessions.
- Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages could be pointing upwards, suggesting strength and bullishness in tech-heavy sectors.
VXX (Volatility Index):
- Volatility Sentiment: The VXX shows minor spikes in recent sessions, but levels remain relatively stable.
- Implications: This stability indicates controlled market fear, and a potential decline in volatility could be forthcoming, which often precedes a bullish sentiment for SPY and QQQ.

Strong Sectors:
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary) and XLK (Technology) appear relatively strong, supported by recent price increases and reasonable volume.
Sector Rotation: A shift appears to be gradually moving out from defensive sectors like the XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities) into more growth-oriented sectors.
Implications: This rotation indicates a risk-on sentiment where investor focus may shift towards growth and higher returns.

SPY:
- Support: 638.50 – This level showed resilience in recent dips.
- Resistance: 639.50 – A breakout above this could signify further upside.
QQQ:
- Support: 567.80 – Watch this level for potential buying interest.
- Resistance: 568.90 – A break above this may open doors for more gains.

Bullish Scenario:
- SPY and QQQ: Key factors include breakthrough at resistance levels, positive economic indicators, or unexpected corporate earnings surprises. Technically, a narrowing Bollinger Band or a crossover of moving averages could catalyze breakouts.
Bearish Scenario:
- SPY and QQQ: Potential downturns may be triggered by adverse geopolitical news, negative economic releases such as lower than expected growth, or failure to hold critical support levels, accompanied by spikes in the VXX.

The market currently reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment with consolidation in major indices. Though uncertainty prevails due to a lack of strong catalysts, the environment supports a cautious risk-on approach fueled by sector rotation. Even as potential upside exists, traders should be wary of volatility bursts, especially in response to geopolitical or economic developments. Maintaining vigilance around aforementioned support and resistance levels will be crucial for short-term trade setups.