Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Wednesday 8AM 12/17/2025

December 17, 2025 4 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Based on the recent 13 bars from the 30-minute intraday data, SPY is experiencing a slight upward pressure with noticeable fluctuations. Although volume showed a significant dip in the earlier bars, it surged considerably in the most recent bars, reflecting increased interest and trading activity. The slight drop in the past few bars from 681.36 to 680.65 might indicate consolidation or slight bearish sentiment temporarily, but the increased volume could hint at a potential breakout. Key technical levels on the moving averages are holding steady, although momentum is currently not strong in either direction.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
The QQQ experienced more pronounced movements compared to SPY, with a high volume earlier and a notable dip towards the last bar, closing at 613.89. Recent data indicates a struggle to maintain the 615-levels, reflecting slight bearish sentiment. This could be attributable to tech sectors facing pressure, as signified by the high-volume sell-offs. Despite the strong movements, the average volumes and moving averages align with a persistent sideways trend, suggesting that the market is waiting for a catalyst to decide on directionality.

VXX (Volatility Index):
VXX reflects a stable to slight decrease in volatility with no significant spikes or drops observed recently, closing at 29.36. This reflects a less panicked market environment which could imply more stability in SPY and QQQ movements. As volatility remains low, the likelihood of sudden market movements appears limited in the short term, barring external events.

Sector Analysis:

Strong Sectors: Based on the recent data, the following sectors have shown strength:
– XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Mild increase with a close at 122.48, revealing consumer optimism.
– XLI (Industrials): Holding steady above 156.
– XLV (Health Care): Steady gains indicated by the rise to 154.48.

Challenges:
– XLK (Technology): Facing volatility, closing at 142.95, resonating with QQQ trends.
– XLE (Energy): Minor declines, closing at 44.1855, aligns with current global oil price challenges.

Sector Rotation: There seems to be an ongoing rotation favoring consumer discretionary and industrials, capturing optimistic investor sentiment in those areas, while technology faces challenges from global pressures.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
– Support: 680
– Resistance: 683
Breaking above 683 with high volume could indicate renewed bullish momentum, while falling below 680 could risk further downward pressure.

QQQ:
– Support: 613
– Resistance: 617
A close above 617 with sustained volume could signal bullish continuation, while dipping below 613 could spark increased bearishness.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
– SPY and QQQ: A positive economic data release or favorable earnings report could trigger a breakout beyond current resistance levels, especially with levels poised near critical points.
– Bullish technical breakouts observed in sectors like consumer discretionary could further support positive momentum across SPY and QQQ.

Bearish Scenario:
– SPY and QQQ: Persistent negative news in technology or global geopolitical tensions could lead to a breakdown below support levels. Additionally, a rise in the VXX might fuel fears and selling pressure.

Overall Commentary:

The market reflects consolidation with a cautious stance, shown by stable volumes and mild sector rotations. Notably, consumer discretionary appears set to outperform, while technology lags. Immediate trading involves close attention to levels of 683 on SPY and 617 on QQQ, where a break may set a new short-term trend. Traders should remain vigilant regarding global news and economic data releases that could swiftly alter market dynamics.