Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Wednesday 4PM 8/13/2025

August 13, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

Analyzing the recent 13 bars on the 30-minute intraday chart, SPY shows stable price movement with slight upward momentum. The volume trend indicates a spike during the third bar in the session, which signifies active trading, likely driven by intraday news or technical breakout patterns. The moving averages support stability around the closing price range of 644.00 to 645.00, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

Similarly, QQQ shows modest bullish sentiment in the recent 13 bars. The price predominantly hovered between 579.80 and 580.70. Despite a dip during one of the intervals, the recovery shows resilience. The volume is moderate with a noticeable increase in the third interval, indicating possible accumulation. The movement suggests cautious optimism.

VXX (Volatility Index):

The VXX chart indicates a gradual increase, with significant activity in the last few intervals, suggesting rising market anxiety. If this pattern continues, it could potentially result in increased volatility for SPY and QQQ, especially if it breaches resistance around 39.00. Traders should watch for sudden spikes above recent highs as a potential impact on market sentiment.

Sector Analysis:

Upon reviewing the sector ETFs, notable movements were observed in:

XLF (Financials): Strong movement with increased volume might suggest momentum due to rising interest rates or favorable economic data.
XLI (Industrials) and XLE (Energy): Both sectors displayed strength likely riding on economic growth expectations.
XLK (Technology): A steady uptrend, as observed in QQQ, underlines the tech sector’s continued appeal.

Sector rotation indicates a tilt towards cyclicals, which, if sustained, could imply broad-based economic optimism.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support: 643.00
Resistance: 646.00

Recent price action near the upper resistance brings focus to a potential breakout region. Traders should look for signals around these levels.

QQQ:

Support: 578.00
Resistance: 581.00

Monitoring these levels will provide insight into the Nasdaq’s tech-heavy narrative, especially with any positive tech earnings surpassing expectations.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

SPY and QQQ: Key drivers include robust earnings, positive macroeconomic indicators (e.g., unemployment claims, GDP growth), and stimulus optimism. A breach above resistance with volume could attract trend followers and momentum traders.

Bearish Scenario:

Negative developments could be triggered by unfavorable economic data or geopolitical tensions. Breakdown patterns below support levels may push further selling, with increased volatility as indicated by VXX potentially exacerbating declines.

Overall Commentary:

The current market environment reflects cautious optimism, with SPY and QQQ exhibiting stable growth patterns, backed by sector strength in financials, industrials, and technology. The anticipation revolves around upcoming economic data that could either reinforce the bullish sentiment or prompt defensive moves. Traders should remain vigilant of volatility spikes and sector rotations impacting price movements.

Charts for Reference: