SPY|QQQ Wednesday 1PM 6/18/2025

June 18, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF): The recent 13-bar development on SPY’s 30-minute intraday chart indicates a slight decline followed by consolidation. There was a notable volume spike on the bar around 13:30, indicating increased interest or supply at that level. Currently, the price is consolidating around $599.50-$599.60. The moving averages likely show flattening out, suggesting a pause in momentum. The volume indicates a potential weakening of momentum, but the price managed to hold above intraday lows, showing some underlying support.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): For QQQ, a similar pattern of slight weakening is observable, with a drop followed by sideways movement. The key movement was a significant down move towards 13:00, with a quick recovery, signaling potential technical buying or short covering. The volume remains elevated, indicating interest at the current price levels around $530. Volume trends are consistent with a market at a pivot point, awaiting directional cues.
VXX (Volatility Index): VXX showed an intraday spike during the same period of weakness in SPY and QQQ, suggesting increased market volatility and defensive positions by investors. A rise towards 53.81 and subsequent decrease back close to open levels indicates volatility without sustainable fear. This movement could suggest temporary nervousness but not a full-blown risk-off sentiment currently.

Over the past 30 days, noticeable strength has been seen in sectors like XLE (Energy), maintaining a firm tone above $88, and XLV (Health Care) showing resilience with recent highs. The strength indicates rotational interest possibly due to uncertain market outcomes, with investors favoring defensive or stable cash flow profiles.
Weakness was centered in XLY (Consumer Discretionary) and XLI (Industrials), reflecting potential consumer sentiment concerns or economic headwinds.
This rotation implies a market cautiously optimistic, yet hedging with defensive positioning, indicative of careful sentiment navigating current macroeconomic conditions.

SPY: Watch for support around $598 and resistance at $601. Break of either side could signal the next move in that direction with significant volume confirming.
QQQ: Notably, support is visible at $529 with resistance at $532. A breakout and close beyond these levels may guide short-term bias leading into the next trading days.

Bullish Scenario:
- For SPY and QQQ, positive economic data or strong earnings results could act as catalysts for breaking resistance levels. Technical breakouts, coupled with declining VXX, would enhance bullish sentiment.
Bearish Scenario:
- Negative economic developments or geopolitical tensions could lead to breakdowns of key support levels. A rise in VXX alongside breakdowns would confirm heightened risk-off sentiment, potentially leading to swift declines.

Overall Commentary:
The market currently exhibits cautious optimism, with sectors like Energy and Health Care finding favor while discretionary sectors face pressure. The action suggests investors balancing growth prospects with defensive strategies, as headwinds remain apparent. Upcoming sessions will pivot on breaking established key levels, guiding either continuation of proceeds into defensive sectors or rotation back into risk-on mode. SPY and QQQ reflect an inflection point, with sentiment pivoting between awaiting catalysts and reacting to current volatility cues.
Include Charts: