Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Tuesday 8AM 6/25/2024

June 25, 2024 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

30-Minute Intraday Chart Analysis for the Past 30 Days:
The 30-minute chart for SPY over the last 30 days shows a robust uptrend with minor corrections. Emphasizing the most recent 13 bars:

Recent Price Volume Development: The last 13 bars reveal increased buying interest, as reflected in the recent uptick in volume and steady price rise.
Volume Trends: There’s a notable increase in volume during upswings compared to downswings, indicating strong buying momentum.
Moving Averages: The price is above the 15-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend.
Price Movements: Recent price action shows higher lows and higher highs, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

30-Minute Intraday Chart Analysis for the Past 30 Days:
A similar bullish pattern can be observed in QQQ:

Recent Price Volume Development: The latest 13 bars show consistent upward price movement accompanied by moderate volume spikes.
Volume Trends: The volume increases during upward movements, indicating strong buyer interest.
Moving Averages: Prices are comfortably above the short-term and medium-term moving averages, pointing to bullish momentum.
Price Movements: QQQ is exhibiting higher lows and higher highs.

VXX (Volatility Index)

Examining Market Volatility:
– Significant Spikes or Drops: Recently, VXX remained relatively stable, with a minor uptick in price.
– Impact on SPY and QQQ: Low volatility suggests a complacent market, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for SPY and QQQ.

Sector Analysis

Examining the performance of various sector ETFs over the past 30 days:

Strong Sectors:
- XLC (Communication Services): Demonstrates consistent growth, aligning with the bullish market sentiment.
- XLK (Technology): Shows robust performance, supporting the overall bullish sentiment observed in QQQ.
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Also indicates strength, with higher volume on up moves.
Weak Sectors:
- XLU (Utilities): Performance is relatively flat, consistent with the sector’s defensive nature during a bullish market.
- XLP (Consumer Staples): Shows less momentum, reflecting low investor interest in defensive sectors.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY

Support and Resistance Levels:
– Support:
– Near-term support at 540, aligning with recent lows.
– Resistance:
– Significant resistance around 550.

QQQ

Support and Resistance Levels:
– Support:
– Strong support around 474.
– Resistance:
– Critical resistance near 478.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario

For SPY and QQQ:

Key Drivers:
- Positive economic data releases (e.g., strong job reports, GDP growth exceeding expectations).
- Strong earnings reports from major companies, especially in tech (XLK) and communication services (XLC).
- Technical breakout patterns above the mentioned resistance levels (550 for SPY, 478 for QQQ).
Outcomes:
- Sustained rally with increased volume, potentially leading to new highs.

Bearish Scenario

For SPY and QQQ:

Key Drivers:
- Negative economic news such as poor job numbers or unexpected inflation spikes.
- Geopolitical tensions causing market uncertainty.
- Technical breakdown below key support levels (540 for SPY, 474 for QQQ).
Outcomes:
- Sharp sell-off with increased volume, breaking the current bullish trends.

Overall Commentary

The overall market sentiment leans bullish, backed by strong performance in major indices like SPY and QQQ. Sector analysis indicates that growth-oriented sectors such as Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) are leading the rally. However, traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels and be prepared for potential volatility stemming from economic data and geopolitical events.