Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Tuesday 8AM 6/24/2025

June 24, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
The analysis of SPY over the past 30-minute intraday chart indicates a modest upward trend within the last 13 bars, albeit with noticeable fluctuations. Volume appears to have been relatively stable, but a slight uptick is seen in recent bars suggesting increased trading interest. The moving averages confirm a slight bullish sentiment as the price maintains itself slightly above short-term averages. The recent price action showed a tendency to surge during early trading, testing higher resistances, followed by slight retracements, indicative of some buying pressure but facing resistance.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
QQQ shows a similar pattern to SPY, although with slightly higher volatility in recent 13 bars. The volume has notably picked up, aligning with the price fluctuations and suggesting a more active trading environment. The moving averages denote a slightly bullish sentiment but face resistance near recent highs. The fluctuations within the low-to-mid trading range signal potential consolidation or cautious trading among investors.

VXX (Volatility Index):
VXX has remained relatively stable with slight intraday volatility. There was a brief spike in volume which didn’t correspond to a significant price change, suggesting a brief period of increased hedging activity or intra-market correction. The relatively stable low indicates investor confidence with a mild sense of caution—indicating neither elevated anxiety nor overt optimism.

Sector Analysis:

Across the sector ETFs, XLC (Communication Services) and XLY (Discretionary) have shown stronger movements, suggesting sector strength in growth-oriented categories. XLK (Technology), although stable, showed some volatile activity suggesting caution among tech stocks. Conversely, sectors such as XLE (Energy) and XLF (Financials) exhibited signs of pullbacks with lower volumes, hinting at rotational movement away from these sectors. The rising interest in select sectors like communication and consumer discretionary can indicate increased risk appetite among traders, pointing towards growth potential in those areas.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
– Support Levels: 603.50 and 601 are key support zones to watch.
– Resistance Levels: 607.50 and 610 are notable resistance levels, where breaking above could trigger further bullish momentum.

QQQ:
– Support Levels: 535 and 532 are critical support areas.
– Resistance Levels: 539 and 541.50 need monitoring for any breakouts.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
– SPY and QQQ: A continuation of the current mild uptrend can be reinforced by strong economic data releases or positive earnings reports. A breakout above the aforementioned resistance levels would signal potential upside with sustained volume.

Bearish Scenario:
– SPY and QQQ: If geopolitical tensions escalate or if there’s unfavorable economic data, it could trigger a breakdown. A drop below key support levels such as 603.50 for SPY and 535 for QQQ would be concerning, potentially leading to further declines.

Overall Commentary:

Current market sentiment demonstrates a cautious optimism, with sectors showing rotation into growth-oriented categories signifying short-term speculative risk-taking. Traders eye potential breakout conditions while maintaining watchful levels on key support and resistance areas. The robust surveillance of volumes in conjunction with moving averages suggests vigilant yet optimistic sentiment. Investors and momentum traders might find opportunities in sectors with potential growth indicators but should remain alert for rapid shifts influenced by upcoming data releases or external economic factors.