Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Tuesday 4PM 8/19/2025

August 19, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

Over the past 30-day 30-minute intraday chart, particularly in the recent 13 bars, SPY shows a mild bullish sentiment. Specifically, the recent bars indicate a steady climb with slight pullbacks, ending at a higher close with respectable volume. The volume has tapered off in the final bars, suggesting consolidation. The moving averages (assuming 50-period and 200-period) likely indicate a golden cross, bolstering the bullish sentiment if applicable.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

Similarly, QQQ displays a consistent upward movement over the same period, ending with moderate volume. The recent 13 bars reveal higher highs and higher lows, demonstrating momentum towards the upside. The leveling of volume on the closes suggests traders are finding value at these levels.

VXX (Volatility Index):

VXX shows a significant drop, indicating decreased volatility and a reduced fear gauge in the market. This sentiment typically aligns with a rising stock market, where SPY and QQQ find support. The lack of aggressive spikes in VXX supports a bullish trend assumption for SPY and QQQ.

Sector Analysis:

Strong Sectors:

XLC (Communication Services): Slight upward movements with consistent volume surges hint at investor interest.
XLK (Technology): Displays strong price stability and consistent volume, aligning with QQQ performance.
XLE (Energy): This sector shows a minor uptick, hinting at rotation towards energy, indicating potential inflation or geopolitical considerations.

Sector Rotation:

XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities): Traditionally defensive sectors, these are maintaining their positions but do not show aggressive growth, indicating a speculative bias in the market.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support: Near-term support at 639, given past lows.
Resistance: 640.5 to 641, with previous rejections at these levels.
A break above could pioneer further upward movement.

QQQ:

Support: Approx. 569.0, aligning with past consolidation ranges.
Resistance: 570.0 – 571.0, needing to breach for significant bullish confirmation.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

For both SPY and QQQ, breaking above mentioned resistances with robust volume is crucial. Positive economic datasets or strong corporate earnings announcements could spur significant buying.
Technical breakout patterns like bull flags or ascending triangles could act as launch zones for further gains.

Bearish Scenario:

Failure to maintain support levels (below 639 for SPY, 569 for QQQ) could trigger selling pressure. External factors such as unexpected geopolitical events, poor earnings, or macroeconomic data could intensify this.
Loss of moving average supports (if identified) could align with bearish continuum confirmations.

Overall Commentary:

Overall, the market sentiment leans towards a cautious optimism as suggested by decreasing VXX levels and consistent recent upward momentum in both SPY and QQQ. While certain sectors like technology and communication services illustrate leadership, there remains a need for vigilance against potential volatility resurgence. Traders should closely monitor key levels and sector performance shifts as indicators. The current market environment appears to be one benefiting from low volatility, suggesting strategic long positions with vigilant risk management strategies.