Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Tuesday 1PM 9/23/2025

September 23, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Analyzing the 30-minute chart for SPY, especially the most recent 13 periods, indicates a modest sideways trend with bearish undertones as volume increases slightly during down moves. The last sessions reflected decreased price levels, suggesting weak buying interest around key support areas. The short-term moving averages may be indicating consolidation at the recent lows, with volume spikes during price dips hinting at potential selling pressure.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
The Nasdaq-100 ETF exhibits similar weakness, mirroring SPY trends but with sharper movements due to tech sector volatility. Recent bars reveal a slight decline with diminishing volume, hinting at lower participation in the current price range. The price resistance around recent highs confirms overhead supply while short-term moving averages potentially crossing over could point to further consolidation before the next trend direction.

VXX (Volatility Index):
The VXX showcases moderate peaks in volatility recently, with substantial increases in volume during these periods. This rise hints at growing market uncertainty or concern, which could pressure SPY and QQQ as risk-off sentiment may prevail. Continued upward moves in VXX would heighten caution among investors.

Sector Analysis:

Reviewing the sector ETFs, rotation is evident, with moderate strength observed recently in defensive sectors such as XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities), suggesting a possible safety trade. Meanwhile, XLC (Communication Services) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) exhibit relative underperformance, which could indicate selectivity in risk exposure. The persistent strength in XLP and XLU underscores a cautious sentiment as investors might be hedging against potential market volatility or downturns.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
– Support: ~655, ~660
– Resistance: ~675, ~680
Analysis of daily charts points to critical support around the 655-660 region. A break below could trigger further selling, while regaining 675 may solidify bullish confidence.

QQQ:
– Support: ~585, ~590
– Resistance: ~610, ~615
Support levels near 585 need monitoring; breaking these could increase downside pressure. A sustained move above 610 could open pathways to test higher resistance zones.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
For both SPY and QQQ, an optimistic outlook hinges on favorable economic data releases or solid corporate earnings surpassing expectations. Technically, reclaiming critical resistance levels with robust volume would support continuation higher, potentially facilitated by a stabilizing VXX indicating reduced volatility fears.

Bearish Scenario:
Conversely, weak economic indicators or unexpected geopolitical issues could steer SPY and QQQ towards further declines. Should support levels be consistently breached amidst high volatility and increased selling volume, this would confirm bearish sentiment and likely drive markets lower.

Overall Commentary:

The current market environment leans towards cautiousness despite attempts at stabilization. Defensive sectors show relative strength, underlining a risk-averse attitude amid elevated volatility expectations as illustrated by the VXX. Traders should remain vigilant with their positioning, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels, while remaining abreast of upcoming economic data and earnings reports that could sway sentiment. The overall bearish undertone coupled with potential sector rotation toward safer assets should inform strategy adjustments, especially for swing traders operating in a short-term momentum-driven context.