SPY|QQQ Tuesday 1PM 7/15/2025

July 15, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Over the past 13 30-minute bars, SPY shows a declining trend in volume, with a noted decrease in price from 625.10 to 623.30. This indicates a potential short-term bearish sentiment as the price is moving lower despite lower volume, which may suggest a lack of buyer interest. However, observe the moving averages closely; if shorter-term averages cross below the longer-term averages, a more significant bearish signal could arise.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
Similar to SPY, QQQ has experienced a decrease from 559.51 to 557.95 over the last 13 bars. The volume is tapering off, which could mean sellers are stepping back, but buyers have yet to show strength. If volume increases on upward price movement, positive momentum could build.
VXX (Volatility Index):
VXX remains relatively stable with slight movements, showing a small increase from 45.08 to 45.20. This stability indicates a lack of significant fear or volatility in the market currently. It’s important to monitor VXX for any unexpected spikes which could suggest rising market uncertainty that could negatively impact SPY and QQQ.

Sector Analysis:
- Strong Sectors: Energy (XLE) indicates some strength with prices maintaining relatively well compared to others. Despite a decrease in volume, the sector hasn’t seen a sharp decline, suggesting some bullish sentiment.

Weak Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE) and Material (XLB) sectors have shown price decline alongside volume reduction, indicating potential weakness.

Sector rotation appears minimal, but a focus on energy and potential rebounds in technology (XLK) could offer insights for short-term tactical plays.

SPY:
Support around the 622 level and resistance near 626. Breaking through these levels with volume could suggest a stronger directional move.
QQQ:
Support around 556, with resistance approximately at 560. Pay attention to volume at these key levels for stronger confirmation of direction.

Bullish Scenario:
For SPY and QQQ, a bullish move could arise from positive earnings announcements, particularly from technology firms enhancing QQQ sentiment or optimistic economic data indicating growth. Technically, a sustained break above the resistance levels on increased volume will add bullish confidence.
Bearish Scenario:
Potentially bearish developments might include negative economic reports or unexpected geopolitical tensions, leading to a downside breakout. Look for increased volume on a move below support levels as a bearish signal.

Overall Commentary:

Current sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with limited volatility and a focus on upcoming earnings and economic data. Although key indices have shown recent near-term declines, this is happening on decreasing volume, which may suggest a lack of enthusiasm rather than outright bearish sentiment. Keep a close watch on sectors like technology and energy for leadership, and especially guard against any sudden volatility spikes which might alter the current quiet market state.
Charts:

To further illustrate the analysis: