SPY|QQQ Tuesday 1PM 10/01/2024

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

Analysis based on the 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days with emphasis on recent 13 bars price volume development:

1. Volume Trends:
   • Recent 13 bars show substantial volume spikes, particularly during sell-offs. This indicates heightened interest but could also hint at distribution phases.
   • A few sessions saw declining volumes amid minor rallies, which could suggest a lack of conviction behind upward movements.
2. Moving Averages:
   • 50-period MA has been somewhat flat but recently started to tilt downward, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
   • The 200-period MA remains an upward slope, signifying a longer-term uptrend still intact.
3. Notable Price Movements:
   • Significant price fluctuations between $567.92 – $574.0622.
   • An observed dip to $566.57 followed by attempts to rally above $569.60, but faced resistance.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

Analysis based on the 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days with emphasis on recent 13 bars price volume development:

1. Volume Trends:
   • Volume during the latest 13 bars shows significant movement, particularly during recovery attempts, indicating active participation.
   • High vol during corrections indicates caution.
2. Moving Averages:
   • 50-period MA has been showing a slightly upward trend but flattens out towards the recent bars.
   • 200-period MA remains upward, suggesting long-term strength.
3. Notable Price Movements:
   • Significant intra-day orders have occurred in the $479.2150 – $481.62 range.
   • A recent dip to $478.22 indicates support buying, but resistance squarely around $481.12.

VXX (Volatility Index)

1. Significant Spikes/Drops:
   • Notable spikes to $54.06 indicate sudden increases in volatility, coinciding with market downturns.
   • A significant volume spike alongside volatility increases at $53.88 suggests nervousness.
2. Impact:
   • Elevated VXX levels suggest increased investor anxiety, likely resulting in cautious positions or hedging in SPY & QQQ, which could delay rallies.

Sector Analysis

1. Strong Sectors:
   • XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Outperformance is notable. Trading consistently above its opening levels, indicating robust buying interest. Highest volume spikes typically occur on upward price movements.
   • XLK (Technology): Maintains significant strength. Regular up movement and high volume indicate investor confidence.
2. Sector Rotation:
   • XLE (Energy): A cycle of slight pullbacks and quick recoveries indicating temporary sector rotation pickup.
   • XLV (Healthcare): Consistent volume on steady price, slightly falling, indicates neutral-to-bearish undercurrents.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY

1. Support Levels:
   • Strong support seen around the $566.570 area, recent dips have found buying interest around these levels.
   • Critical longer-term support around $564.00.
2. Resistance Levels:
   • Resistance at $569.60 upper range as multiple instances show failure to break through.
   • Major resistance lies around $574.00 as it aligns with rejection points.

QQQ

1. Support Levels:
   • Crucial support at $478.22, recent lower bounds showed buying halts downturns.
   • Psychological support could also exist at $475.00.
2. Resistance Levels:
   • Multiple tests around $481.62 present a significant level.
   • Crucial resistance around $484.00.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario

Key Drivers:
– SPY and QQQ:
– Breakout above $569.60 for SPY and $481.62 for QQQ could trigger short-term bull runs.
– Positive economic data and strong earnings reports will drive upward sentiment.
– A technical breakout accompanied by volume surges could see significant advances.

Bearish Scenario

Key Drivers:
– SPY and QQQ:
– Any breakdown below $566.00 for SPY and $478.22 for QQQ will add to bear signals.
– Negative economic news or geopolitical tension can prompt risk-off sentiments.
– Failure to sustain above the 50-period MA could lead to further downside pressure.

Overall Commentary

The current market shows mixed sentiment with bearish undercurrents in the short term despite longer-term bullish trends. Significant volume spikes on sell-offs and inability to break above immediate resistance points are concerning. Sector analysis highlights strong performance in Consumer Discretionary and Technology, suggesting rotation into growth sectors. Volatility remains elevated, indicating cautious investor sentiment. Key levels in SPY and QQQ need monitoring for potential breakout or breakdown to ascertain the next directional move.

Charts:

• SPY:
• QQQ:
• VXX:
• XLC:
• XLY:
• XLP:
• XLE:
• XLF:
• XLV:
• XLI:
• XLK:
• XLB:
• XLRE:
• XLU: