Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Thursday 8AM 6/26/2025

June 26, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

In the most recent 13 bars on the 30-minute intraday chart for SPY, the ETF has shown stability around the 609 level, with a slight upward momentum. The last few bars indicate an increase in volume, suggesting growing interest or uncertainty. The moving averages might show a slight upward slope, indicating potential for a bullish continuation.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

QQQ mirrors a similar pattern to SPY with prices stabilizing near the 543.50 level. The recent bars reveal a slight uptick in volume, especially during minor dips, suggesting buying interest. The moving averages are likely flat or marginally up, reinforcing a cautious bullish sentiment.

VXX (Volatility Index):

The VXX demonstrates low volatility with no significant spikes, indicating a calm market sentiment overall. The slight declines in price point to easing fear among investors. This stability may support sustained bullish sentiment for SPY and QQQ if maintained.

Sector Analysis:

Strong Performing Sectors: XLK (Technology) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) show resilience with higher volumes and upward price momentum, signaling potential sector strength.
Sector Rotation Observations: XLF (Financials) and XLE (Energy) maintain steady traction, with XLF showing higher trading volumes, possibly indicating sector rotation into financials. If this continues, it could influence broader market sentiment by suggesting confidence in economic recovery.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support Levels: 607 and 605 are critical supports that could attract buying if tested.
Resistance Levels: 610 and 612 are near-term resistance levels, and a break above could indicate stronger bullish momentum.

QQQ:

Support Levels: 542 and 540.50 serve as crucial support areas to maintain its upward bias.
Resistance Levels: 545 and 548 are key hurdles, with a break above potentially signaling robust bullish activity.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

SPY: A bullish scenario may evolve if positive economic reports surface, especially concerning employment or GDP. A break above 612 with strong volume could signal continuation.
QQQ: For a bullish trend, strong earnings from tech companies within the index could propel it past resistance, especially if economic backdrop supports tech growth.

Bearish Scenario:

SPY: A bearish outlook could emerge from unfavorable economic news, like weak consumer spending or rising interest rates, potentially pushing SPY below 607.
QQQ: Negative news from major components (e.g., tech giants) or geopolitical tensions could hinder QQQ, possibly driving it below 540.50.

Overall Commentary:

The market currently shows a cautiously optimistic sentiment, with notable strength in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Investors remain moderately bullish, evidenced by low volatility and steady buying in major ETFs. However, potential risks from economic data releases and geopolitical developments require vigilance. Continuation or disruption in sector rotation patterns could significantly influence market direction in the upcoming sessions.