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SPY|QQQ Thursday 8AM 12/19/2024

December 19, 2024 3 min read

Based on the provided data, here is a comprehensive market sentiment analysis, along with sector performance and key levels to watch:

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Recent Price and Volume Development: In the last 13 bars, SPY has been moving upwards, with a noticeable increase in volume particularly between 07:00 and 08:00. This indicates strong buying interest at higher price levels.
30-Minute Chart Analysis: SPY has shown a gradual increase over the past 30 days, with minor pullbacks. The recent surge might suggest a continuation of the trend, buoyed by a higher volume which often accompanies such breakouts. Keep an eye on the moving averages for any crossing patterns, indicating further momentum.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
Recent Price and Volume Development: Similar to SPY, QQQ has seen a positive price movement in the last 13 bars. However, the higher volume is concentrated around the 07:00 bar, which suggests buyers were enthusiastic around that timeframe.
30-Minute Chart Analysis: QQQ appears to follow the broader market sentiment with generally upward movement over the last 30 days. Given its sensitivity to tech stocks, watch for tech-specific news that may impact its momentum.

VXX (Volatility Index):
Volatility Insights: The VXX shows a decline from a high to a close lower in the most recent period, indicating decreasing volatility. Such a trend is typically associated with stable or bullish markets as the fear diminishes. The sharp drop around the 08:00 bar suggests reduced market anxiety.

Sector Analysis:

  • Strong Sectors:
    • XLF (Financials): Showed significant movement, particularly an increase to close at higher prices, suggesting this sector is gaining strength.
    • XLK (Technology): Also noted a significant positive drift, indicating tech might be picking up further momentum.
  • Sector Rotation Insights: The rotation seems to be skewed towards Financials and Technology, suggesting investors are favoring growth and risk-on sectors potentially due to economic optimism or earnings results.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
Support: Near-term support can be around the 586 level, where it previously found stability before the recent uptick.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is poised at approximately 591.50; breaking this level might signal a stronger bullish trend.

QQQ:
Support: Key support is around 518, coinciding with previous consolidation areas.
Resistance: Watch for resistance at around 522, as a breach would confirm continued bullish momentum.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario for SPY and QQQ:
– Positive economic data or favorable earnings reports could fuel additional rallies. A technical breakout above mentioned resistance levels with sustained high volume will validate an upward trend continuation.

Bearish Scenario for SPY and QQQ:
– Any negative economic news or geopolitical incidents could spook the markets, leading to a downturn. Look for technical breakdowns like dropping below the support levels, which could trigger further selling pressure.

Overall Commentary:

The market currently showcases an optimistic tone, reflecting in SPY and QQQ’s upward momentum accompanied by increased volume. The decline in VXX further supports a reduction in market anxiety. Sector analysis reveals a shift towards growth-oriented areas such as Financials and Technology. Traders should eye key levels for signs of breakouts or breakdowns, staying alert to economic indicators. Given the current setup, maintaining a flexible strategy to adjust to potential quick shifts would be prudent.

Charts:

To support this analysis, you can visualize the trends and patterns using the charts from Finviz:
finviz dynamic chart for  SPY
finviz dynamic chart for  QQQ
finviz dynamic chart for  VXX
finviz dynamic chart for  XLF
finviz dynamic chart for  XLK

This analysis should guide investors in making informed decisions based on current short-term market conditions. Remember, trading involves risk, and it’s crucial to consider a broader set of data points and personal risk tolerance before making trades.

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