Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Thursday 8AM 10/30/2025

October 30, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Analyzing the 30-minute intraday chart for SPY reveals a mixture of signals. Over the recent 13 bars, SPY has exhibited an upward trajectory, closing at 685.66 with significant volumes, notably at 685.92 where the close reached a recent high. The move appears to have diminished momentum as it approaches previous highs, potentially indicating resistance around the 687 level. Volume spiked to 129,422 during a small price pullback, suggesting potential buying support.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
For QQQ, the recent 13 bars show a notable fluctuation, culminating in a close at 634.11. This represents a minor retreat from a recent peak at 635.80, as observed from the highest bar. Volumes also saw a rise concurrent with a price decrease, indicating either profit-taking or increased selling pressure. QQQ remains resilient though, with significant price movement attempting to establish a higher trading range.

VXX (Volatility Index):
The VXX chart highlights modest volatility levels with stable price ranges over the last few set of bars. Although the VXX recently ticked slightly upward, reaching a high of 33.05, its relatively low range does not signify heightened investor fear or significant perturbations expected in SPY or QQQ.

Sector Analysis:

Sector ETFs reveal potential rotation:

XLV (Health Care) and XLK (Technology) appear strong, with recent price upticks amid healthy volumes. In particular, XLK’s move towards 303.85 suggests bullish sentiment for tech stocks.
Conversely, XLRE (Real Estate) and XLU (Utilities) show a down drift, seeing prices retract slightly with XLRE notably closing at 40.55, attributing a negative bias on volume selling pressure.
XLE (Energy Sector ETF) and XLF (Financials) show stability but muted activity, suggesting neither are favored within current market dynamics.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support: 680, 675
Resistance: 687

QQQ:

Support: 630
Resistance: 636

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
A break above 687 in SPY could point to continued upward momentum, buoyed by improving economic indicators or significant tech earnings driving QQQ higher past 636. Breakout patterns supported by volume accumulation would further affirm this shift.

Bearish Scenario:
Potential downside risks remain with SPY faltering below 680, fueled by unexpected negative data or geopolitical tensions. A resolute breakdown in QQQ below 630 would embolden bearish positions, suggesting broader market pressure.

Overall Commentary:

Current market sentiment reflects cautious optimism with SPY and QQQ balancing near pivotal points, suggesting traders await further catalysts. Investment inflow into health care and information technology indicates favorable sector bias. Nonetheless, high market fragility persists under potential influence of macroeconomic variables. Short-term kinetics remain positive but warrant vigilant monitoring due to prevailing uncertainties.