Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Thursday 4PM 10/30/2025

October 30, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Examining the past 30 days with an emphasis on the recent 13 bars, SPY has displayed a marginal upward trend. The price has consolidated recently, with a volume spike observed in the last two bars, indicative of potential accumulation between $679.95 and $683.98. The interplay between moving averages during this period suggests a neutral to slightly bullish scenario. The breakout above $682.00 accompanied by increased volume should be noted, hinting at increasing buying interest.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
QQQ shows a comparable sentiment to the SPY, with recent bars demonstrating bullish tendencies as prices broke above $630. Despite the lower volume in the last two bars, the ability to sustain above $632 suggests underlying strength. The momentum seems positive with key support maintained around $625.

VXX (Volatility Index):
Volatility remains somewhat subdued as VXX prices have been falling, implying decreased market anxiety. The lack of substantial spikes in the recent bars corroborates the bullish sentiment in SPY and QQQ. The lack of volatility spikes is aligning with the upward biases observed in SPY and QQQ.

Sector Analysis

Examining sector ETFs over the past 30 days, noticeable strength is exhibited in XLY and XLK. XLY’s breakthrough from $235 to $239 with increased liquidity implies capital influx, indicating consumer discretionary’s resilience. XLK’s persistent strength adds momentum, benefiting from strong technology sector performance. Conversely, sectors like XLP and XLU have remained range-bound, indicative of a defensive posture receiving lesser attention in the prevailing market uptrend.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY:
Key support is observed around $679, whereas resistance lies at $685. A sustained move above $685 may herald further upward momentum. It is crucial to observe how SPY interacts with $682, serving as an interim pivot.

QQQ:
Support levels are evident near $625, with $632 as an interim resistance. A break above $634 could potentially set the stage for a continuation to higher levels, potentially targeting $640.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario:
For SPY and QQQ, a continued bullish outlook could materialize if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive, reflected in positive economic indicators or earnings surprises. The existing technical patterns suggest a breakout installation, with sustained uptrends potentially driving prices to test higher resistance zones.

Bearish Scenario:
Conversely, a bearish scenario may unfold if negative headlines, such as geopolitical tensions or weak economic data, shake investor confidence. Breakdown patterns below key support levels like $679 for SPY and $625 for QQQ would reinforce a more cautious outlook.

Overall Commentary

The current market environment appears cautiously optimistic with the underlying trend being incrementally bullish, notably supported by the technology and consumer discretionary sectors. VXX’s dip underscores lower volatility, further supporting risk-on sentiment. However, potential downside risks are ever-present with sensitive geopolitical or economic developments which could reverse the trend. Traders should watch for how price levels interact with established supports and resistances for entry and exit triggers.