Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Thursday 4PM 10/23/2025

October 23, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
On the 30-minute intraday chart, SPY shows a mixed sentiment over the past 30 days. As we narrow down to the recent 13 bars, a pattern of consolidation around the 671-672 level is evident. There’s been a substantial volume increase during the recent bars at 671.63 where a large volume of 11,982,927 shares traded, indicating potential repositioning by large traders. The Moving Average (MA) crossover checking can hint at an impending bearish sentiment if short-term averages cross below the long-term MA; however, this would need confirming with more data.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
The QQQ’s chart reflects a similar sentiment, exhibiting a seesaw pattern with slight upward momentum but limited by resistance around 611.00. Volume saw a surge in the 15:30 interval, reaching 3,581,813 shares, which could hint at institutional interest at this level. Technical indicators like the EMAs would need to be closely monitored as they approach each other.

VXX (Volatility Index ETF):
The VXX has shown some stability in the pricing, with a slight downtrend noted in the recent bars. The decrease in volatility, shown by declining volume and relatively narrow price ranges, implies a market complacency or confidence phase, which generally reduces selling pressure for SPY and QQQ. However, any sudden spikes in VXX can act as a precursor for a market correction.

Sector Analysis:

Among sectors, a few have outperformed:

XLI (Industrials) and XLV (Health Care) have shown strength, with XLI closing near its highs for the day and XLV closing just below intraday highs.
XLK (Technology), aligned with QQQ, faced headwinds, but closed slightly negative, suggesting profit-taking.
XLB (Materials) and XLF (Financials) are gearing towards bearishness following noticeable drop bases in their respective sessions.

Sector rotation indicates an inclination towards defensive plays, with Healthcare and Industrials fairly resilient, signaling market caution.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
– Support: 670
– Resistance: 674
These levels were tested multiple times in recent sessions, making them critical for both bullish and bearish traders.

QQQ:
– Support: 610
– Resistance: 613.50
A breach beyond these levels, particularly on heavy volume, could catalyze momentum-based trades.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
– For SPY and QQQ to pivot upward, key drivers would be upbeat economic data, reduction in bond yields, or strong corporate earnings reports. A breakout above resistance with strong volume would reinforce a bullish outlook.

Bearish Scenario:
– Geopolitical tensions, disappointing earnings reports, or hawkish Fed signals could pressure indexes downward. Sustained breach of the identified support levels, accompanied by increasing volumes, would confirm a bearish trend.

Overall Commentary:

Current market conditions suggest a cautious optimism held back by macroeconomic uncertainties. While there are bullish setups in select sectors, the broader market seems range-bound with potential consolidation. Traders should remain vigilant of upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments which could tilt market sentiment. Persistent monitoring of SPY and QQQ’s price action relative to their key levels could signal the next directional move.