Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 8AM 7/01/2024

July 1, 2024 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

30-Minute Intraday Chart (Past 30 Days):
Recent price action over the last 13 bars shows SPY finding a slight upward trajectory. Volume has been moderate.
– The price is trading near the upper end of its recent range, signaling potential bullish momentum.
– The moving average indicates a firm support region around the 544-545 level.
– Notable price movements have been limited, indicating the market waits for a catalyst.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

30-Minute Intraday Chart (Past 30 Days):
Recent price action over the last 13 bars shows QQQ breaking above a key 480 resistance level.
– There has been an uptick in volume generally when breaking resistance.
– Moving averages suggest solid momentum, with short-term moving averages crossing above longer-term ones.

VXX (Volatility Index ETF):

30-Minute Intraday Chart (Past 30 Days):
– Recent prices have remained stable around the 10.80 range with no significant spikes or drops.
– Low volatility suggests a calm and steady market sentiment.
– Decreased interest in hedges implies optimism in the market’s near-term outlook.

Sector Analysis:

Performance of Sector ETFs over the Past 30 Days:
– XLC (Communication Services):
Showed steady movements, but the slight drop near the end indicates a possible transition.
– XLY (Consumer Discretionary):
Saw a steady rise with a current close at highs, showing strength.
– XLP (Consumer Staples):
Very stable, a slight climb suggests a defensive posture among traders.
– XLE (Energy):
Finished on a higher note around 91.65, modest volumes suggest consolidation.
– XLF (Financials):
Not much movement, steady around 41.24-41.08.
– XLV (Health Care):
Some minor fluctuations, closing slightly higher, seeing reduced volume.
– XLI (Industrials):
Minor rebounds but stayed broadly steady.
– XLK (Technology):
Upward trend, reflected by new highs hitting 226.8.
– XLB (Materials):
Upward trend with good volumes, suggesting growth.
– XLRE (Real Estate):
Very strong movement with higher volume, indicating robust performance.
– XLU (Utilities):
Steady performance, indicating interest in defensive positions.

Implications:
– Strong sectors: Technology (XLK), Materials (XLB), Real Estate (XLRE).
– Defensive sectors (XLP, XLU) also seeing continued interest.
– Broad sector stability with a slight leaning towards growth and defensive sectors.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support Levels:
543, 540
Resistance Levels:
545.5, 547
Any move above 545.5 may signal strong bullish momentum, breaking beyond 547 could lead to a rally.

QQQ:

Support Levels:
478, 474
Resistance Levels:
482, 486
Holding above 480 suggests strong momentum; passing 482 suggests further highs.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

For SPY and QQQ:
– Positive economic data such as employment rates, consumer spending rises.
– Strong earnings reports, especially from tech giants and consumer discretionary.
– Technical breakout patterns above 545.5 for SPY and 482 for QQQ can drive momentum higher.

Bearish Scenario:

Negative economic data, disappointing earnings, or rates hikes.
Geopolitical tensions, adverse policies, or macroeconomic instability.
Breakdown patterns below 543 for SPY and 478 for QQQ could drag markets down.

Overall Commentary:

The market is showing promising potential in sectors like Technology, Materials, and Real Estate. Defensive positions in Staples and Utilities indicate some caution. Low volatility shows traders are optimistic but vigilant for catalysts. Watching key levels in SPY (545.5) and QQQ (480) is crucial for signs of sustained momentum or reversal, balancing economic data against geopolitical risk.