SPY|QQQ Monday 8AM 6/23/2025

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
   • Over the past 30 days, SPY has exhibited a range-bound trend with no significant breakout or breakdown. The recent 13-bar development reveals a modest pullback from recent highs, with decreasing volume, suggesting a lack of strong selling pressure. The 20-period moving average on the 30-minute chart shows a flattening trend, indicating indecision in the market. Despite a price dip, the volume has not spiked, reflecting potential consolidation rather than aggressive selling.
2. QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
   • The QQQ has shown similar consolidation patterns near recent highs. In the past 13 bars, there has been a mild retracement with below-average volume, which suggests a pause rather than a reversal. The slight uptick in the 50-period moving average indicates underlying bullish sentiment despite the short-term retracement.
3. VXX (Volatility Index):
   • The VXX has experienced minor fluctuations with a few spikes, but no sustained elevation. Recent spikes coincide with minor pullbacks in SPY and QQQ, suggesting caution among investors. However, the overall stability in VXX reflects subdued fear and relatively calm market conditions, suggesting potential for a risk-on environment.

Sector Analysis:

• Sector Performance:
  • The last 30 days have seen strength in technology (XLK) and energy (XLE), with notable gains in these sectors. XLB (Materials) and XLF (Financials) have shown some sideways movement indicating mixed sentiment. Utilities (XLU) have been weaker, reflecting less interest from investors seeking growth. The sector rotation towards technology and energy suggests optimism about economic conditions and demand for growth stocks.

Key Levels to Watch:

1. SPY:
   • Key support lies around 590, while resistance is near 605. A breakthrough or breakdown from these levels could dictate further movement in this range.
2. QQQ:
   • Watch for support around 520 and resistance near 540. These levels are crucial for defining near-term trends and potential breakout opportunities.

Scenarios:

1. Bullish Scenario:
   • For SPY and QQQ, a bullish scenario could be driven by positive economic data like increased consumer spending or better-than-expected earnings reports, particularly within tech and energy sectors. A technical breakout above resistance levels with strong volume could lead to further gains.
2. Bearish Scenario:
   • A bearish scenario may develop from negative economic news, such as disappointing jobs data or escalating geopolitical tensions. In such events, breakdowns below key support levels, exacerbated by rising volume in VXX, might indicate deeper corrections.

Overall Commentary:

• The current market environment exhibits consolidation with underlying bullish sentiment, especially evident in technology and energy sectors. The subdued volatility suggests a cautious but stable market, providing potential opportunities for swing trades within defined support and resistance levels. Short-term traders should monitor economic releases and sector performance, as these could catalyze significant market movements.

Charts:

Use the following Finviz shortcodes to view the charts for in-depth analysis:

These insights suggest traders maintain a balanced approach, leveraging sector strength while being cognizant of key support and resistance levels.