Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 8AM 6/17/2024

June 17, 2024 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
– 30-Minute Intraday Chart for the Past 30 Days:
– Volume Trends: There has been a noticeable increase in volume over the last 13 bars, suggesting heightened market interest or activity. This could either signify accumulation or distribution.
– Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages have been trending upwards, indicating a bullish bias in the short run.
– Price Movements: Price action has been relatively stable with slight upward movement, aligning with the volume increase. A recent push towards higher highs within the last few 30-minute bars highlights bullish momentum.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
– 30-Minute Intraday Chart for the Past 30 Days:
– Volume Trends: Volume has been relatively stable but has shown periodic spikes, particularly during the last few bars, potentially indicating position openings by larger players.
– Moving Averages: Similar to SPY, short-term moving averages are trending upwards.
– Price Movements: Recent bars show a tight range but with a slight bullish tilt. The price continues to hover near recent highs, suggesting a possible accumulation phase.

VXX (Volatility Index):
– 30-Minute Intraday Chart for the Past 30 Days:
– Volume Trends: Volume remains low with occasional spikes, indicating that significant volatility events are infrequent but impactful when they occur.
– Price Movements: The index has seen a slight downward trend, suggesting a decrease in market fear and a potential for stability.
– Impact on SPY and QQQ: A declining VXX is typically a bullish sign for SPY and QQQ, as it implies reduced market anxieties.

Sector Analysis

Examining the performance of sector ETFs:

Strong Performing Sectors:
- XLF (Financials): Volume has been moderate with slight upward price action, indicating steady confidence in financials.
- XLK (Technology): Volume spikes noted with steady upward momentum in price, reflecting strong investor interest.
- XLI (Industrials): Steady upward price movement and robust volume highlight this sector’s strength.
Weak Performing Sectors:
- XLV (Health Care): Mixed performance with slight retracement over recent bars, indicating investor hesitation.
- XLU (Utilities): Stable but with minimal upward momentum, suggesting limited interest.
Sector Rotation: There appears to be a rotation into financials, technology, and industrials, possibly indicating a preference for growth and economically sensitive sectors. This rotation suggests investors are positioning for continued economic strength.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY:
– Support Levels: Near-term support is observed around 540.00, where price has previously bounced.
– Resistance Levels: Key resistance around 545.00, a break above which could signal further bullish momentum.

QQQ:
– Support Levels: 477.00 appears as near-term support.
– Resistance Levels: Strong resistance around 482.00, acting as a critical barrier for further upside.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario:
– For both SPY and QQQ, a continuation of strong economic data, coupled with tech sector strength, could propel the indices higher.
– Breakouts above key resistance levels (545 for SPY and 482 for QQQ) could initiate further buying.

Bearish Scenario:
– Negative economic indicators or geopolitical tensions could prompt a market sell-off.
– Breaking below support levels (540 for SPY and 477 for QQQ) could precipitate additional downside pressure.

Overall Commentary

The market sentiment appears cautiously bullish, with major indices showing upward momentum supported by key sectors like financials, technology, and industrials. With VXX trending downwards, there is reduced fear, indicating a potentially stable environment conducive to short-term upward movements. However, traders should be aware of key support and resistance levels that might become pivot points for substantial moves.

Charts to support the analysis: