SPY|QQQ Monday 4PM 8/19/2024

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

Analyzing the SPY 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days, with a specific focus on the recent 13 bars:

1. Price Volume Development: Over the recent 13 bars, there has been a noticeable increase in both price and volume. The volume peaked significantly during the bar covering 15:30 to 16:00 on 2024-08-19. This indicates substantial buying interest and suggests bullish sentiment.
2. Moving Averages: If we assume commonly used intraday moving averages (e.g., 9-period, 21-period), recent price action has likely crossed above these, indicating upward momentum.
3. Price Movements: The price closed higher consistently, moving from around 557.70 to 559.17, showing clear bullish momentum.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

Considering the QQQ 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days, focusing on the recent 13 bars:

1. Price Volume Development: There was a significant uptrend in both price and volume in the recent 13 bars. The volume spiked especially during the bar covering 15:30 to 16:00 on 2024-08-19, similar to SPY.
2. Moving Averages: Again, assuming common intraday moving averages, recent price action would likely have crossed above, indicating upward momentum.
3. Price Movements: The price closed higher consistently, moving from around 478.47 to 481.45, suggesting strong bullish sentiment.

VXX (Volatility Index):

Examining the VXX 30-minute chart for recent developments:

1. Volatility Analysis: VXX has remained relatively stable with no significant spikes.
2. Implications for SPY and QQQ: Low volatility generally indicates reduced market fear and can be supportive of bullish conditions in both SPY and QQQ.

Sector Analysis:
Reviewing sector ETF performance over the past 30 days:

1. XLC (Communication Services): Showed strength with higher highs in price, specifically gained during the recent 13 bars.
2. XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Consistently moved upwards, closed higher indicating strength.
3. XLK (Technology): Exhibited strong performance, an indicator of continued sector leadership.
4. XLU (Utilities): Modest gains but remains less volatile, typical defensive asset behavior.

Sector Rotation:
The rotation appears to favor Technology (XLK), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), suggesting a risk-on environment. Defensive sectors like XLU showed modest gains but didn’t lead the market.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY

1. Support Levels: 557.50 (recent intraday low levels), 555.00 (psychological and historical support).
2. Resistance Levels: 560.00 (recent intraday high), 562.00 (around key moving averages).

QQQ

1. Support Levels: 478.00 (recent intraday low), 475.00 (psychological support).
2. Resistance Levels: 482.00 (recent intraday high), 485.00 (psychological resistance).

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

For both SPY and QQQ, prices could drive higher if supported by:
1. Positive economic data signals.
2. Strong earnings reports from major companies.
3. Technical breakouts above resistance levels (562 for SPY, 485 for QQQ).

Bearish Scenario:

For both SPY and QQQ, market downturns could occur due to:
1. Negative economic news.
2. Geopolitical tensions escalating.
3. Breaking below critical support levels (555 for SPY, 475 for QQQ).

Overall Commentary:
The overall sentiment appears bullish, with strong uptrends observed in both SPY and QQQ, supported by low volatility indicated by VXX. Key sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary are leading, suggesting a risk-on environment. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and breakdowns at the identified key levels.

Continue to monitor economic indicators and earnings reports for short-term catalysts that could influence market direction.

Charts: