Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 4PM 7/28/2025

July 28, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

Price Volume Analysis: SPY’s recent 13 bars show a consolidation phase around the 637 mark with slightly increasing volume over the last 30-minute intervals. Earlier, there was a notable spike in volume during a minor price uptick in the 15:30 period, possibly indicating short-term bullish momentum. The prices remain close to their short-term moving averages, suggesting neither bullish nor bearish extremes.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

The recent 13 bars for QQQ reflect a stable upward trend with consistent closing above the opening price. Volume spiked significantly as QQQ pushed through prior resistance levels in the 568 range, indicating bullish sentiment and potential to maintain upward momentum as the price moves.

VXX (Volatility Index):

VXX shows a significant drop during the 15:30 interval, potentially indicating reduced volatility expectations. The decline paired with low subsequent volume suggests a calm or complacent market sentiment, often bullish for SPY and QQQ unless external factors interject.

Sector Analysis:

Strong Performing Sectors:
- XLK (Technology): Displays positive momentum with a steady price increase over past 30 days, aligning with bullish trends in QQQ.
- XLI (Industrial): Also demonstrates strength, aligning well with broader economic recovery themes.
Notable Sector Rotation:
- XLE (Energy) and XLF (Financials): Both sectors show limited movement, signifying a neutral sentiment for these high-impact sectors, potentially affecting broader market sentiment.
- XLRE (Real Estate) and XLU (Utilities): Underperform relative to other sectors. This may signal a rotation away from traditionally defensive sectors toward growth sectors.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
- Support: 630 region, crucial if the market turns bearish.
- Resistance: 640, needs a breakthrough for bullish continuation.
QQQ:
- Support: Found near 560, providing a strong base for recent advances.
- Resistance: 570, acts as a key psychological and technical resistance.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
- SPY and QQQ: Healthy pullbacks and consolidation followed by economic optimism or tech earnings outperformance could push the indices above respective resistances, propelling a new wave of buying interest.
Bearish Scenario:
- SPY and QQQ: Negative news like worsening geopolitical tensions or a broader economic downturn might trigger a sell-off, breaching key supports and accelerating downward movers, exacerbated by bearish technical patterns.

Overall Commentary:

The current market environment is cautiously bullish, bolstered by tech strength and reduced perceived volatility. Broadly, the sentiment remains positive but susceptible to macroeconomic developments. The concentration in tech (XLK and QQQ’s strength) hints at potential overreliance on growth sectors. Investors should watch economic indicators closely as they could quickly sway sentiment.

Charts: