Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 4PM 12/15/2025

December 15, 2025 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
Based on the SPY 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days, the recent 13 bars indicate a consolidation phase with some weakness. Despite opening at 680.835, SPY has been unable to hold above 681.69 and closed at 680.82. Volume peaked significantly on the bar ending 15:30 with 13,498,773.0 shares, suggesting an increase in selling pressure or short covering around these levels. The inability to hold gains suggests a cautious to bearish sentiment.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
QQQ also exhibited a similar pattern to SPY, with a slight decline from 612.1200 down to 610.5900 over recent bars. The highest volume occurred in the bar ending 15:30 with 5,582,353.0 shares. As with SPY, QQQ is in a consolidation with a slight leaning towards bearish sentiment due to failure to maintain intraday highs.

VXX (Volatility Index):
VXX remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations from 29.57 to 29.55, and no significant spikes in volume, except during the 15:00-15:30 interval. This stability with a slightly lower close suggests that traders are not expecting abrupt volatility increases despite the lack of clear market direction.

Sector Analysis:

XLC (Communication Services): Downward pressure is present as closing prices declined over the bars, indicative of mild sector weakness.
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Displayed similar weakening, with a clear downtrend in the recent bars and a significant volume spike at 15:30, potentially due to selling activity.
XLP (Consumer Staples): Also portrays limited weakness; however, volume indicates higher interest possibly in sell-offs.
XLE (Energy): Showed strength with up-move in price through the session, suggestive of sector buying or interest.
XLF (Financials), XLV (Health Care): Both sectors are seeing consolidation with no clear directional bias but slightly tilted towards weakening.
XLI (Industrials): Stabilized yet closing lower, indicating mild bearish pressure.
XLK (Technology): Significant drop in price over recent bars with elevated volumes suggesting bearish tone within the sector.
XLB (Materials), XLRE (Real Estate), XLU (Utilities): Generally stable but remain under small bearish pressure from price drop over recent bars.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:
– Support: 680.00 where recent activity concentrated around.
– Resistance: 681.70 as recent effort to break above failed.

QQQ:
– Support: 610.00, close to where it is trading, marking psychological and technical significance.
– Resistance: 612.00 post barrier evident recently.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:
For SPY and QQQ, a rebound above the highlighted resistance levels backed by encouraging earnings reports or positive macroeconomic updates could drive an upward move. Needs to be supported by increased volumes.

Bearish Scenario:
A bearish scenario could unfold if the market receives negative economic data or heightened geopolitical risks, pushing SPY and QQQ through current support levels, leading to potential additional downside.

Overall Commentary:

The current market is reflecting a subdued sentiment with a slight skew towards cautious or bearish tones. This is particularly showcased by SPY and QQQ’s inability to maintain upward momentum and close lower. Despite a show of strength in the energy sector, other sectors reflect consolidation phases or minor bearishness. Traders should remain cautious, focusing on the immediate technical levels to gauge potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.