Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 1PM 12/08/2025

December 8, 2025 4 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

Analyzing the SPY 30-minute intraday chart for the past 13 bars, we observe a relatively stable price movement with slight volatility. The recent bars exhibit an attempt to recover after a brief dip, with closing prices oscillating slightly below the highs of the range. Volume has been moderately high, suggesting active market participation, but there’s no definitive directional momentum at this point.

The moving averages indicate some flattening, which means the market is waiting for further cues. However, the recent increase in volume during the 12:30-13:00 timeframe may suggest upcoming volatility or investor interest either catching a dip or expecting a rebound.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

QQQ shows a similar pattern to SPY, with prices hovering near recent highs but unable to break out significantly. The movements are within a narrow range, reflecting a cautious sentiment. Volume spikes during the same 12:30-13:00 timeframe indicate that traders are closely investing, perhaps expecting tech stocks to lead. The lack of a clear move higher or lower suggests a wait-and-watch approach by the market.

VXX (Volatility Index):

VXX reflects a decline in volatility with no major spikes observed in the examined timeframe. This calming down of the VXX may indicate that investors are not expecting immediate large swings in the market, promoting a more risk-on sentiment toward both SPY and QQQ. This translates to investor confidence stabilizing but still on alert for any economic or geopolitical disruptions.

Sector Analysis

Over the past 30 days, sector performance has shown some notable trends:

XLK (Technology) and XLF (Financials) hold relatively well, indicating strong investor interest in tech and financial sectors.
XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities) also demonstrate stability, often seen as defensive sectors, suggesting some risk aversion by investors.
The most significant rotation seems visible in XLY (Consumer Discretionary) and XLC (Communication Services), with some signs of bullish moves but limited volume support.
XLE (Energy) appears to struggle, which might reflect concerns over fluctuating oil prices or changes in energy policy.

This rotation implies a shift to tech and financial stocks while traditionally safe sectors hold their ground amidst cautious optimism.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY:

Support: 682.00
Resistance: 684.50

These levels indicate a tight range in which SPY is trading. A decisive move above 684.50 could suggest bullish prospects, while a dip below 682.00 might trigger bearish momentum.

QQQ:

Support: 623.00
Resistance: 625.00

A break above 625.00 could be a positive sign for tech stocks, while falling below 623.00 could signal caution.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario:

For SPY and QQQ, a bullish case could be driven by:
– Positive economic data, particularly around consumer sentiment and employment numbers.
– Strong earnings reports from key companies within SPY and QQQ.
– Breakout patterns on charts, especially past resistance levels, coupled with higher-than-average volume.

Bearish Scenario:

Conversely, a bearish scenario may emerge from:
– Negative economic news, such as disappointing job reports or poor GDP growth statistics.
– Heightened geopolitical tensions or unforeseen global crises, which often stoke fear in markets.
– Technical breakdown from current support levels, exacerbated by increasing VXX signals.

Overall Commentary

The current market environment is characterized by cautious optimism with a potential for quick directional shifts. Investors appear watchful, considering mixed signals from different sectors and economic indicators. While there’s no drastic movement indicated, tech and financials show resilience, suggesting a balanced risk approach among market participants.

In summary, traders should look for pivotal data releases and earnings in the coming days while closely monitoring key support and resistance levels for trade setups.