Market Analysis

SPY|QQQ Monday 1PM 11/17/2025

November 17, 2025 4 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

Over the past 30 days, SPY has shown mixed activity. In the most recent 13 bars (30-minute intervals), SPY has been fluctuating between a high of 673.00 and a low of 667.77, closing at 668.94 in the most recent bar. There is a noticeable increase in volume during the upswings, suggesting a potential shift towards positive momentum. The volume profile indicates that there might be accumulating interest, especially as the price tested higher resistance but failed to maintain those levels persistently.

Key Observations:
– Volume: Increasing on upswings.
– Price Movement: Recent bearish close but potential accumulation due to volume spikes.
– Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages might be flattening, indicating sideways momentum with potential for breakout.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

The QQQ shows a similar pattern, with intraday volatility over the recent period. The highest point was 611.18, while the lowest dipped to 605.04. The most recent bar closed at 606.08 after attempting to reclaim higher levels. The volume is moderately strong, with the price closing at the lower end of the recent range indicating caution among traders.

Key Observations:
– Volume: Consistent, with patterns similar to SPY.
– Price Movement: Attempts to break out failed recently, showing resistance.
– Moving Averages: Indicating sideways momentum, potential breakout on increased volume.

VXX (Volatility Index)

As a proxy for market fear, VXX remained relatively stable with minor upward pressure evident from 34.77 to 35.69. The consistent increase in volume with the upward price movement suggest sensitivity to external shocks or sudden bearish news that can affect SPY and QQQ.

Key Observations:
– Volume: Increasing with price, suggestive of growing nervousness.
– Price Movement: Uptick, implying heightened caution/volatility expectation.

Sector Analysis

Over the past 30 days, the sector rotation highlights different strengths:

XLC (Communication Services): Stagnant, indicating potential sector weakness.
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Strong start but closing momentum tapered, signaling caution.
XLP (Consumer Staples): Stable, showing defensive play interest.
XLE (Energy): Recent declines suggest energy demand or oil price concerns.
XLF (Financials): Sideways movement, sensitivity to interest rate changes.
XLV (Health Care): Mixed, could signal indecision around regulatory news.
XLI (Industrials): Slight downward trajectory, possibly due to macroeconomic data.
XLK (Technology): Volatile, reflective of broader market sentiment in tech-heavy indices.
XLB (Materials): Relatively stable, indicating possible support around infrastructure plays.
XLRE (Real Estate): Little change, indicating sector stagnation.
XLU (Utilities): Mild increase, suggesting a safe haven attraction.

Key Levels to Watch

SPY

Support Levels: 667
Resistance Levels: 673

QQQ

Support Levels: 605
Resistance Levels: 611

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario

For both SPY and QQQ, a bullish breakout could be driven by:
– Strong economic data reports, especially around employment and consumer spending.
– Positive earnings reports, with tech and financials leading gains.
– Technical breakouts above resistance levels at 673 for SPY and 611 for QQQ.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a bearish scenario could unfold due to:
– Negative economic news, such as lower consumer confidence or higher unemployment.
– Escalating geopolitical tensions.
– Breakdowns below key support levels of 667 for SPY and 605 for QQQ.

Overall Commentary

Current market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with slight upward momentum tempered by external uncertainties. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary show underlying volatility, while defensive plays remain appealing. Traders should watch for technical breakouts or breakdowns around aforementioned key levels, with an eye on external macroeconomic influences.