SPY|QQQ Monday 1PM 10/13/2025

Market Sentiment Analysis

1. Overall Market Sentiment:

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF):
  In the last 13 bars on the 30-minute chart, SPY has been demonstrating a mild upward momentum, with volume remaining relatively steady after a noticeable spike around the 11:30 bar, returning later to an average level. The moving averages indicating the medium-term are slightly positive, supporting the bullish short-term outlook. There is a mild upward trend from 660.210 at the 11:00 bar to around 663.4185 at the 13:00 bar.

• QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):
  Similar to SPY, QQQ shows a positive trend in recent bars, with the price moving upward from 598.06 to about 601.7799. Volume started high at the morning session but there has been a gradual decline after initial spikes, which suggests a sustainable upward trajectory backed by significant buying in early hours and a decrease in volatility, favoring a bullish sentiment.

• VXX (Volatility Index):
  VXX shows declining prices from earlier in the day, with a reduction in volatility, as evidenced by a drop from 35.4650 to 34.8700 by the end of the 13:00 bar. This decreasing trend suggests calming market conditions, typically correlated with upward momentum in equity indices like SPY and QQQ.

1. Sector Analysis:

• Currently, the sector ETFs generally reflect stability with mild increases across most sectors. Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) indicate strong relative performance, suggesting a rotation into these sectors. This focus on growth-oriented and consumer sectors suggests a bullish outlook driven by confidence in consumer demand and technology resilience.
• Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) show some bullish sentiment as well, typically seen as defensive plays, which indicates some cautious optimism balanced against growth sector performance.

1. Key Levels to Watch:

• SPY:
  Key support levels are observed around 660, with resistance levels near 664. A break above 664 with increased volume could strengthen bullish sentiment.

• QQQ:
  Support is identified near 600, with resistance at 602.83. Crossing above this resistance could suggest further bullish advances.

1. Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario:
  For both SPY and QQQ, a continuation of macroeconomic optimism, supported by strong earnings or positive economic data, could strengthen the bull market. A technical breakout above key resistance levels backed by solid volume could further consolidate gains.

• Bearish Scenario:
  Potential bearish factors could include negative global economic news, significant geopolitical tensions, or any unfavorable earnings surprises. Technically, a breakdown below support levels could trigger a short-term bearish phase, with heightened volatility potentially observed in VXX spiking upwards.

1. Overall Commentary:

   The market, as of recent data, is showing mild bullish sentiment, supported by sector performance and low volatility from VXX. Consumer-oriented and technology sectors appear relatively strong, which bodes well for risk appetite among investors. Key resistance levels in both the SPY and QQQ, if breached, could lead to further bullish momentum. The continued absence of negative catalysts could maintain the current upward trend.

2. Include Charts:

This comprehensive analysis should help clarify the current market dynamics and potential future trends, providing valuable guidance for momentum traders.