SPY|QQQ Friday 4PM 6/07/2024

June 7, 2024 3 min read

Market Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

In examining SPY’s 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days, with a closer emphasis on the recent 13 bars:

Volume Trends: The past 13 bars highlight a decreasing volume trend, especially noticeable in the last trading day.
Price Movements: There is a slight downward pressure as the close price has been struggling to stay consistent above $534.
Moving Averages: The short-term moving averages are slightly turning downwards, indicating a potential short-term bearish momentum.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

Looking at QQQ with the same metrics reveals:

Volume Trends: The volume is lower compared to its average, with a noticeable drop in activity towards the close in recent bars.
Price Movements: Similar to SPY, the price is facing resistance just below $464.
Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages are flat or slightly downward, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum.

VXX (Volatility Index ETF):

Market Volatility: VXX shows relatively stable levels around $11, indicating low market fear or volatility.
Spikes and Drops: No significant spikes or drops in recent bars. The stability of VXX suggests traders are not overly concerned about sudden market volatility.

Sector Analysis:

By examining the sector ETFs, the following trends emerge:

Strong Sectors:
- XLC (Communication Services): Remains relatively stable above $84.
- XLK (Technology): Steady above $215, showing resilience amid market fluctuations.
- XLP (Consumer Staples): Stability around $77.50 indicates defensive sector strength.
Weak Sectors:
- XLE (Energy): Facing downward pressure, struggling to hold above $90.
- XLF (Financials): Continues to drop below $41.50, reflecting risk-off sentiment in financial stocks.
- XLRE (Real Estate): Unable to sustain above $38, showing weakness.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support Levels: $533
Resistance Levels: $535.50, $536.75

QQQ:

Support Levels: $462
Resistance Levels: $464.50, $465.75

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

For SPY and QQQ, a bullish move might be triggered by:
– Positive economic data such as strong employment numbers or favorable GDP growth.
– Strong earnings reports from key companies beating expectations.
– Technical breakouts above the resistance levels with significant volume support.

Bearish Scenario:

A bearish turn could be influenced by:
– Negative economic news such as rising unemployment or disappointing consumer spending.
– Developments in geopolitical tensions that introduce market uncertainty.
– Technical breakdown below the support levels with increased selling pressure.

Overall Commentary:

The current market environment indicates a cautious sentiment. While certain sectors like Technology and Consumer Staples show resilience, others such as Energy and Financials are under pressure. Given the current volume trends and price movements, traders should remain vigilant for any economic data releases or earnings reports that could sway sentiment. Key support and resistance levels serve as critical decision points for short-term momentum trades.