Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a mixed start on Tuesday, November 10, following Monday’s broad rally. On November 9, the Dow rose 1,104.02 points (+2.2%) to 52,389.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 673.71 points (+2.7%) to 25,273.52, and the S&P 500 added 173.08 points (+2.4%) to 7,550.01. That reclaimed the S&P’s November 3 Election Day close of 7,542.60. As of 07:59 ET, S&P futures are +3.00 vs. fair value and Nasdaq futures are -128.00.

The main themes were a rebound in AI-related stocks, sharply lower oil on hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, and strong participation across market caps. All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher, nine of them by at least 1.4%. Industrials (+3.8%) led, followed by consumer discretionary (+3.1%), information technology (+2.9%) and communication services (+2.1%). The PHLX Semiconductor Index surged 6.9%, recovering part of the prior week’s decline of more than 12%. The Russell 2000 (+3.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+3.2%) outperformed.

This morning, attention turns to the October CPI report at 8:30 ET. Fed Governor Waller said he supports a 25-basis-point hike in December even if inflation improves, and would consider a larger move if inflation runs substantially hotter than expected. Treasury yields are higher, while oil is lower. Overseas markets are positive, led by semiconductor and technology shares.

Market Snapshot

Monday, Nov 9 close

S&P 500: 7,550.01 (+173.08, +2.4%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,273.52 (+673.71, +2.7%)
DJIA: 52,389.96 (+1,104.02, +2.2%)
S&P 500 Equal Weight: +2.3%
Russell 2000: +3.2%
S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.2%
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF: +2.9%

Year to date

Russell 2000: +14.5%
S&P Mid Cap 400: +12.4%
S&P 500: +10.3%
DJIA: +9.0%
Nasdaq Composite: +8.7%
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain lower for the quarter.

Pre-market futures (07:59 ET): S&P +3.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq -128.00 vs. fair value. At 06:14 ET, S&P was +7.00 and Nasdaq -78.00.

WaveFinder breadth (Nov 10)

Primary sentiment: Bearish (821 bulls vs. 1,060 bears)
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls, 0 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Bullish
Above 20 SMA: 62.59%
Above 40 SMA: 61.96%
9M bulls/bears: 0/0; follow-through 0%

Sector Performance

Ranked by Monday’s S&P 500 sector performance. Briefing.com gave figures only for the sectors below; the rest are noted as unreported. WaveFinder ATR readings are shown for volatility context.

1. Industrials: +3.8% | ATR -0.60% (falling, P47)
2. Consumer Discretionary: +3.1% | ATR 2.84% (rising, P100)
3. Information Technology: +2.9% | ATR -2.12% (falling, P21)
4. Communication Services: +2.1% | ATR 0.19% (rising, P100)
5. Financials, Health Care, Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, Utilities, Real Estate: individual returns not reported. All finished higher, and nine of eleven sectors gained at least 1.4%, so at least five of these seven rose 1.4% or more.

WaveFinder ATR for the remaining sectors

Financials: 0.61% (rising, P95)
Health Care: 2.90% (flat, P89)
Energy: -1.68% (falling, P11)
Consumer Staples: 3.10% (rising, P89)
Materials: 1.24% (falling, P53)
Utilities: 3.05% (flat, P74)
Real Estate: 1.88% (rising, P95)

Volatility is expanding in consumer discretionary and communication services (both at the 100th percentile), financials and real estate (95th), and consumer staples (89th). It is compressing in technology and energy.

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-market (Nov 10)

Sanmina (SANM) 167.37, +17.73 (+11.9%): higher after earnings and guidance. It beat by $1.16 and beat on revenue, and was +20.3% after hours Monday.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 215.00, +7.60 (+3.7%): smaller-than-expected loss, but missed revenue and issued fiscal-year guidance below consensus.
NVIDIA (NVDA) 177.03, -1.64 (-0.9%): President Trump said the FBI is investigating CEO Jensen Huang’s affair.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) 387.97, -0.65 (-0.2%): October revenue +59.7% y/y and +14.7% sequentially.
Anthropic (ANT): amended S-1 estimates an IPO price of $70.00-$78.00 per share, with 825.0 mln shares offered.
Infineon: advanced after record quarterly and full-year results and an upbeat revenue outlook.

Monday regular session

AMD 508.58, +59.54 (+13.26%): extended Friday’s rebound after strong Q3 results and an Oppenheimer upgrade to Outperform.
Teradyne (TER) 246.00, +27.78 (+12.73%)
Bloom Energy (BE) 193.88, +20.64 (+11.91%)
Tesla (TSLA) 378.05, +19.83 (+5.54%)
Meta (META) 641.37, +31.22 (+5.12%)
Amazon (AMZN) 266.93, +7.63 (+2.94%)
Alphabet (GOOG) 286.01, +2.08 (+0.73%): unveiled two new eighth-generation TPU configurations.
NVIDIA (NVDA) 178.67, -7.97 (-4.27%): reports that Huang had an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, prompting an independent board investigation.
Constellation Energy (CEG): Q3 adjusted EPS $5.06, revenue +45.4% y/y to $9.55 bln, FY26 EPS guidance raised to $12.50-12.80.
monday.com (MNDY): down sharply on a Q4 revenue outlook below consensus.

After hours (Nov 9)

Up: AAON +14.1%, Onto Innovation +9.2% (guided Q4 EPS and revenue above consensus), Sanmina +20.3%
Down: Ethan Allen -11.3%, Archer Aviation -4.8%, Lucid -3.9%, Rocket Lab -3.9%, Hims & Hers -2.8%, Skydance -2.3%
Flat or little changed: H&R Block (flat), Life360 (-0.1%)

Stock Spotlight

Constellation Energy (CEG) rallied after a strong Q3. The largest U.S. nuclear power producer posted adjusted EPS of $5.06, its largest beat in several quarters, with revenue up 45.4% y/y to $9.55 bln. It raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.50-12.80 from $11.50-12.50, its second increase this year. Growth was driven by the Calpine acquisition from January, strong commercial performance and higher PJM capacity prices, partly offset by lower nuclear production tax credit revenue. The nuclear fleet ran at a 97.2% capacity factor in Q3.

The longer-term story is contracted demand. CEG signed about 4,560 MW of long-term agreements with three customers in Q3, including deals with Google and Amazon, bringing its YTD total above 8,500 MW. About 91 mln MWh of clean baseload generation, or 45% of the fleet, is expected to be under long-term contract in 2032. Management targets more than 20% annualized base EPS growth from 2026 through 2029, with many new agreements contributing from 2028. It also argued that market concerns about midterm election outcomes and tighter data center regulation are overdone. Briefing.com called the visibility encouraging given recent worries weighing on the AI infrastructure trade.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Pre-market (07:59 ET): Treasuries are lower, led by shorter tenors, ahead of CPI. Waller’s comments favoring a 25 bp December hike, with the possibility of more, pressured futures. The 10-year future is -8/32.

2-yr: 4.62% (+6 bps)
3-yr: 4.67% (+8 bps)
5-yr: 4.71% (+5 bps)
10-yr: 4.89% (+3 bps)
30-yr: 5.27% (+1 bp)
U.S. Dollar Index: 101.76 (+0.1%)

Monday’s close: The 2-yr settled at 4.56% (+3 bps) and the 10-yr at 4.86% (+1 bp). The 3-yr auction ($58 bln) met weak demand, but Treasuries held. The Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 101.67.

Other drivers

NY Fed October survey: inflation expectations unchanged at 3.9% (1-year), 3.3% (3-year) and 3.0% (5-year). Expectations for a higher unemployment rate reached the highest level since April 2020.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q4 rose to 3.5% from 3.4%.
The Bank of Japan’s October meeting summary showed diverging views, adding uncertainty to a December hike.
RBNZ’s Conway said domestic inflation remains too high.
Currencies: EUR/USD 1.1214 (-0.1%), GBP/USD 1.3424 (-0.1%), USD/JPY 158.18 (+0.2%), USD/CNH 6.6687 (unchanged).

Commodities

Pre-market (Nov 10)

WTI crude: $85.01-$85.05, -2.1% (-$1.80)
Gold: $4,086.90/oz, -0.7%
Copper: $6.302/lb, -0.7%
Silver: no pre-market quote in the data

Monday settlement (Nov 9)

Crude oil: $86.90 (-$3.98, -4.4%)
Natural gas: $3.22 (+$0.22)
Gold: $4,115.00 (+$39.20)
Silver: $52.74 (+$0.81)
Copper: $6.35 (+$0.11)

Oil has been pressured by hopes for a U.S.-Iran diplomatic resolution. President Trump said renewed strikes are “highly unlikely” while talks continue. Unconfirmed Al Arabiya reports describe a framework to reduce Iran’s uranium enrichment, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade.

Overseas Markets

Asia (Tuesday)

Nikkei: +2.9% (60,459.58, +1,684.10)
Hang Seng: +0.4% (24,557.04, +108.10)
Shanghai Composite: +0.1%
Kospi: +4.4%
Australia All Ordinaries: +1.1%
India Sensex: closed for Diwali-Balipratipada, reopens Wednesday

Semiconductor shares extended their recovery from last week’s selloff, and easing geopolitical tensions added support. A sharp rise in KOSPI 200 futures triggered a five-minute buy-side trading curb.

Europe (Tuesday)

STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%
DAX: +1.2%
FTSE 100: +0.4%
CAC 40: +1.1%
FTSE MIB: +1.5%
IBEX 35: +1.3%

Technology shares and lower oil amid optimism on U.S.-Iran diplomacy were the main drivers. Barclays reported U.K. consumer card spending +2.3% y/y in October, though consumer confidence measures weakened.

Economic Data

Released today

October NFIB Small Business Optimism: 97.8 vs. 98.0 Briefing.com consensus (the bond update cites 97.9); prior 97.9. Slightly below consensus.

Overnight data

Japan September household spending: -2.8% m/m (expected +0.3%), -6.8% y/y (expected -3.1%)
Japan September current account: JPY2.372 trln (expected JPY3.354 trln); adjusted JPY1.82 trln (expected JPY2.81 trln)
Japan October bank lending: +5.2% y/y (expected +5.4%)
Japan Economy Watchers Current Index: 46.1 (expected 47.1)
China October trade balance: USD105.28 bln (expected USD126.50 bln); exports +35.2% y/y (expected +33.5%); imports +41.6% y/y (expected +32.0%)
Australia October NAB Business Confidence: -15 (prior -14); Business Conditions: -2 (prior -1)
France Q3 unemployment: 8.2% (expected 8.4%; prior 8.3%)

Due at 8:30 ET

October CPI: consensus +0.3%, prior +0.6%
October Core CPI: consensus +0.2%, prior +0.3%

The CPI report is expected to shape Fed expectations and the opening tone. For context, September CPI was +3.7% y/y and core CPI +2.6% y/y, and PCE is running at 3.6% overall and 3.1% core. A hot print would reinforce Waller’s case for a larger December hike.

Looking Ahead

8:30 ET: October CPI and Core CPI.
1:00 PM ET: $42 bln 10-year Treasury note auction. Monday’s 3-year auction saw weak demand.
After the close: CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings.
Fed: Waller’s December hike stance makes the inflation data central to rate expectations.
Geopolitics: Watch for confirmation or denial of the reported Iran enrichment framework, which has been driving oil lower.
NVIDIA: The board’s independent investigation and the reported FBI inquiry.
Anthropic IPO: Pricing is estimated at $70.00-$78.00 per share.
Sustainability of the rebound: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain lower for the quarter, and WaveFinder’s primary breadth reading is still bearish. Investors are also looking to further AI-related earnings and key inflation data this week.