Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a modestly higher open on Friday, November 6, after Thursday’s brutal session. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% (-334.89) to 7,353.80, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.5% (-1,421.52) to 24,335.38, and the DJIA lost 3.4% (-1,833.06) to 51,523.27. All three posted their worst finishes since April 2025. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, more than 10% below its October 6 closing high, and the DJIA slipped below its 50-day moving average, joining the other two averages. As of 8:05 ET, S&P futures are +4.00 vs. fair value and Nasdaq futures are +321.00.

The driver was a deepening unwind of the AI trade. Concerns that Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could bring tighter regulation and slow data center buildout hit semiconductor and AI infrastructure names, and the selling spread far beyond tech. Information technology fell 7.3%, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 12.3%. Unlike Wednesday, mega-cap leadership was caught too: the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF fell 5.8%. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (-2.8%) outperformed the cap-weighted index. The VIX jumped 60.8% to 26.69.

This morning brings some stabilization. Semiconductors are seeing buying interest on more encouraging data center headlines. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa said she does not oppose data centers outright, though she favors a pause until new legislation passes, and President Trump reiterated his support. Overnight, however, was rough: Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi each fell 6.0%, and Europe is broadly lower. Attention turns to the 8:30 ET October jobs report, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 75% probability of a 25-bp rate hike at the December FOMC.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500: 7,353.80, -334.89 (-4.4%). It flirted with its 200-day moving average (7,323).
Nasdaq Composite: 24,335.38, -1,421.52 (-5.5%). The 200-day moving average is 25,094.
DJIA: 51,523.27, -1,833.06 (-3.4%)
Russell 2000: -4.6%
S&P Mid Cap 400: -3.9%
S&P 500 Equal Weight: -2.8%
VIX: 26.69, +60.8%
Futures (8:05 ET): S&P +4.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq +321.00 (early at 6:28 ET: +25.00 and +371.00)

WaveFinder breadth (2026-11-06):

Primary sentiment: Very Bearish, with 560 bulls vs. 1,278 bears
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls / 0 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Bearish
Above 20 SMA: 55%
Above 40 SMA: 53.88%
9M bulls/bears: 0 / 0; 9M bull follow-through: 0%

Sector Performance

Thursday’s S&P 500 sector moves, ranked best to worst (where reported), with WaveFinder ATR:

1. Consumer Staples: -0.7% (ATR 3.17%, rising, P95)
2. Utilities: -0.7% (ATR 3.46%, rising, P89)
3. Communication Services: -1.9% (ATR -0.44%, rising, P89)
4. Health Care: -2.5% (ATR 1.88%, flat, P26)
5. Materials: -2.7% (ATR 1.51%, rising, P58)
6. Financials: -2.8% (ATR -0.22%, rising, P89)
7. Energy: -2.8% (ATR -1.99%, falling, P0)
8. Consumer Discretionary: -3.7% (ATR 1.67%, rising, P84)
9. Industrials: -4.1% (ATR -1.12%, flat, P26)
10. Information Technology: -7.3% (WaveFinder Technology ATR -3.22%, falling, P0)
11. Real Estate: performance not reported in the data (ATR 1.61%, rising, P95)

Notes: Energy fell despite WTI rebounding 2.6%. Industrials were hit by data center construction exposure. Defensives held up best but still declined.

Key Earnings & Movers

Premarket Friday:

Cloudflare (NET) 295.05, +49.87 (+20.34%): Beat Q3 estimates; revenue +39.2% y/y; full-year non-GAAP operating income guided to $462-463M.
Airbnb (ABNB) 193.40, +23.27 (+13.68%): Beat Q3; gross booking value +21%, nights and seats booked +16%; Q4 revenue outlook above consensus.
Lam Research (LRCX) 205.31, +20.11 (+10.86%): $25B buyback authorization and $0.33 quarterly dividend.
Moderna (MRNA) 250.87, +9.41 (+3.90%): Beat Q3; raised 2026 revenue growth outlook and cut R&D expense forecast.

Thursday’s decliners:

AMD 404.40, -84.38 (-17.26%)
Arm Holdings 166.72, -25.08 (-13.08%)
Expedia 272.48, -43.40 (-13.74%): Q4 outlook pointed to slower growth and margin compression.
Tesla 343.69, -41.50 (-10.77%): Scrutiny concerns around Musk’s businesses, including a potential SpaceX combination.
Palantir 154.99, -16.71 (-9.73%): Concerns about slowing bookings growth and valuation.
CoreWeave 43.66, -4.76 (-9.83%): Lowest since May 2025.
DoorDash 179.92, -18.67 (-9.40%): Pressure after Amazon-Uber Eats Prime partnership.
NVIDIA 181.60, -18.53 (-9.26%): Fell into bear market territory.
SpaceX (SPCX) 123.62, -12.30 (-9.05%)
Qualcomm 156.75, -16.44 (-9.49%)
Amazon 260.21, -5.82 (-2.19%)
Uber 68.81, -1.06 (-1.52%)

Thursday’s standout gainer: AppLovin (APP) 356.10, +84.35 (+31.04%) on a Q3 beat, upbeat guidance, and a $3.2B buyback.

Other: Teleperformance fell in Europe after cutting its 2026 sales growth outlook. The Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD) fell 12.3% to a record low, and the IGV software ETF fell 4.3%.

Stock Spotlight

Qualcomm (QCOM) closed at 156.75, down 16.44 (-9.49%), after Q4 (Sep) results. EPS fell 28% y/y to $2.17, beating by a penny, while revenue of $10.32B fell 8.4%. Handset revenue dropped 26% to $5.14B, pressured by elevated memory costs and the Apple modem transition, though management said China Android revenue bottomed in June and has improved sequentially. Automotive was a bright spot: revenue jumped 89% to $1.99B, exiting FY26 at an $8B annualized run rate versus the prior $7B expectation. IoT rose 4% to $1.89B.

The concern is profitability. QCT EBT margin contracted 500 bps y/y to 24%, with Q1 guidance of 20-22%, including roughly 3 points from folding in data center investments. Q1 EPS guidance of $2.15-2.35 sits slightly below the $2.25 expectation at the midpoint, while revenue guidance of $10.4-11.2B is above the $10.8B midpoint. Data center is on track, with over $650M expected in Q1 and the $5B FY27 target reaffirmed. Price increases to offset input costs won’t be fully reflected until the second half of FY27.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are on track for a modestly lower start after two days of solid gains. The 10-year was last at 4.866% (-7/32 in price), and yields as of the overnight update:

2-year: 4.50%, +1 bp
3-year: 4.57%, +3 bps
5-year: 4.64%, +3 bps
10-year: 4.87%, +3 bps
30-year: 5.29%, +4 bps

On Thursday, the 10-year closed near 4.837% (+14/32 in price at 15:13 ET). Yields hit their lowest since the second week of September, and the 10-year has retreated more than 50 bps from its October 7 high of 5.364%. The flight to safety also lifted gold.

Other drivers: the U.S. Dollar Index is +0.4% at 101.98. USD/JPY is 156.33 (+0.4%), EUR/USD 1.1168 (-0.4%), GBP/USD 1.3388 (-0.5%), and USD/CNH 6.6692 (+0.1%). Bank of England Governor Bailey said another rate hike is possible if energy prices stay high.

Commodities

WTI crude: $90.11/bbl, -0.5% (Thursday settled at $90.55, +$2.32 or +2.6%). It is on track for a substantial weekly decline amid optimism about a diplomatic resolution with Iran.
Gold: $4,077.60/oz, -0.9%
Copper: $6.269/lb, unchanged
Silver: not provided in the data

Overseas Markets

Asia:

Nikkei: -6.0% (57,434.77, -3,643.10)
Hang Seng: -1.3% (24,481.86, -315.10)
Shanghai Composite: -1.1%
Kospi: -6.0%, after a temporary trading halt; lowest since late March
Sensex: +2.2%
All Ordinaries: -0.7%

Drivers: technology and semiconductor selling. South Korean officials pledged measures to contain volatility, including waiving a collateral rule for brokerages starting Monday. About 600,000 Nvidia H200 chips are reportedly awaiting approval for shipment to China.

Europe:

STOXX 600: -1.8%
DAX: -2.4%
FTSE 100: -2.3%
CAC 40: -1.8%
FTSE MIB: -1.3%
IBEX 35: -1.5%

Selling has spread to financials, industrials, consumer names, mining, and energy.

Economic Data

Overnight releases:

Japan September average cash earnings +4.6% y/y (expected +3.8%)
Eurozone September retail sales -0.7% m/m (expected -0.1%)
Germany September industrial production +0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%)
France September trade balance EUR-7.3B (expected EUR-5.8B)
U.K. October Lloyds House Price Index -0.6% m/m (expected 0.0%)
Spain September industrial production +2.0% y/y
Switzerland Q4 SECO Consumer Climate -43 (expected -35)

Thursday’s U.S. data: Initial jobless claims 189,000 (consensus 197,000), the lowest since July. Q3 productivity +3.6% (consensus 3.1%) and unit labor costs -0.7% (consensus +1.4%).

Today (consensus; prior):

8:30 ET Nonfarm Payrolls: 65K; 29K
8:30 ET Private Payrolls: 50K; 46K
8:30 ET Unemployment Rate: 4.2%; 4.2%
8:30 ET Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%; 0.1%
8:30 ET Average Workweek: 34.4; 34.4
10:00 ET Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (prelim): 47.2; 48.0
15:00 ET Consumer Credit: $11.0B; $8.3B

With a December hike priced at 75%, a hot payrolls or wage print could pressure rates and equities, while a soft print could ease hike expectations.

Looking Ahead

The immediate focus is the 8:30 ET jobs report, followed by Michigan sentiment at 10:00 and consumer credit at 3:00 PM. Traders will watch whether the semiconductor and AI infrastructure bounce holds after Thursday’s rout, particularly with the Nasdaq below its 200-day moving average and the S&P near its own (7,323). Also in focus: data center policy headlines, Iran diplomacy and oil’s weekly decline, South Korean market stability measures ahead of Monday, and the December FOMC rate path. WaveFinder breadth remains Very Bearish (560 bulls vs. 1,278 bears), suggesting caution on any rebound. No specific earnings for the next session are provided in the data.