Market Analysis

Market Summary — Pre market — 2026-11-01

By WaveRider AI8 min read

Market Summary

U.S. equities closed out an already volatile week with a sharp Friday selloff, as the ongoing correction in AI-related names intensified into the close. The S&P 500 fell 140.32 points (-1.82%) to 7580.14, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 747.73 points (-2.85%) to 25457.43, and the DJIA declined 572.25 points (-1.09%) to 51770.52. The Nasdaq bore the brunt of the damage, pressured by a 7.3% plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index that pushed the gauge below its 200-day moving average for the first time in this cycle.

The proximate catalysts were disappointing post-earnings reactions from Intel (INTC) and Amazon (AMZN). Intel’s soft Q4 guidance — citing weakening PC demand amid rising memory prices and supply constraints — triggered a 28.58% collapse in the stock and dragged PC makers HP (-9.58%) and Dell (-10.80%) lower in sympathy. Amazon’s maintained $220 billion capex forecast and negative free cash flow renewed investor skepticism about the returns on AI infrastructure spending, a theme that also weighed on Alphabet (GOOG) and the broader communication services complex. Selling was broad enough that defensive leadership in Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities could not offset the damage — a departure from Thursday’s pattern, when strength outside mega-cap tech had cushioned the indices.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, the Nasdaq fell 2.0%, and the DJIA slipped 0.9%, even as the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 each gained 1.3%, underscoring a stark divergence between large-cap AI-exposed names and the broader market. Treasuries extended their rally for a fourth straight week, with yields down roughly 40 basis points from October highs, as safe-haven demand absorbed the equity volatility despite firming crude oil prices.

Market Snapshot

IndexLevelChange% Change
Dow Jones51,770.52-572.25-1.09%
Nasdaq Composite25,457.43-747.73-2.85%
S&P 5007,580.14-140.32-1.82%

Breadth (NYSE/Nasdaq, 30-Oct):

  • NYSE: Advancers 998 / Decliners 1,715 | Volume 1.57 bln
  • Nasdaq: Advancers 1,091 / Decliners 3,366 | Volume 9.04 bln

WaveFinder Breadth (as of 10/30):

  • Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 790 / Bears 1,427)
  • 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 109 / Bears 741)
  • 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
  • Stocks above 20-day SMA: 56%
  • Stocks above 40-day SMA: 49.72%
  • 9-Month Bulls: 11 / Bears: 79 | Bull Follow-Through: 30.43%

Breadth metrics confirm the deterioration beneath the surface — with roughly half of all names now below their 40-day average and a decisively bearish tilt in both primary and extreme (4%) sentiment readings.

Sector Performance

Ranked by Friday session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch / narrative detail):

1. Energy: +1.9% — Strength tied to crude above $104/bbl; Chevron (CVX) earnings beat added support.
2. Consumer Staples: +1.4% — Defensive rotation; Walmart, Coca-Cola, Mondelez all higher.
3. Utilities: +0.6% — Defensive bid continued.
4. Health Care: +0.4% — Boosted by standout earnings reactions (Regeneron, Eli Lilly).
5. Real Estate: +0.2% — Modest gain, aided by Treasury rally.
6. Consumer Discretionary: -0.9% — Amazon earnings miss weighed heavily.
7. Communication Services: -1.1% — Alphabet extended post-earnings retreat; Reddit plunged.
8. Industrials: -1.6% — Weakness spread to AI-infrastructure-linked names.
9. Financials: Weak (listed among session laggards; no specific % provided)
10. Materials: Not itemized for Friday (weekly figure: +2.0% for the week per Weekly Wrap)
11. Information Technology: -4.3% — Worst performer by a wide margin; PHLX Semiconductor Index -7.3%, closing below its 200-day moving average.

Volatility Context (WaveFinder Sector ATR): Utilities (3.46%, rising, P100) and Materials (3.05%, rising, P100) show the highest realized volatility readings, followed by Consumer Staples (2.63%, flat, P95) and Health Care (2.36%, flat, P58). Technology volatility actually registered at the low end of its range (-1.92%, flat, P5), suggesting the session’s magnitude of decline was large relative to recent typical moves in the sector.

Key Earnings & Movers

  • Intel (INTC) 65.76, -26.31 (-28.58%) — Disappointing Q4 guidance; cited weakening PC demand amid rising memory prices and supply constraints limiting ability to meet data center demand. No positive cash flow expected in 2027.
  • HP Inc. (HPQ) 28.78, -3.05 (-9.58%) — Dragged by Intel’s PC demand warning.
  • Dell (DELL) 424.16, -51.35 (-10.80%) — Same PC-demand overhang.
  • Sandisk (SNDK) 1151.43, -178.62 (-13.43%) — Beat Q1 estimates but modest Q2 revenue-guidance upside and cautious seasonal commentary overshadowed strong Datacenter growth.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) 204.78, -8.88 (-4.16%) — Broad semiconductor-space pressure.
  • Amazon (AMZN) 240.35, -3.44 (-1.41%) — Earnings miss, negative free cash flow despite accelerating AWS growth; 2027 infrastructure spend plans raised investment-return concerns.
  • Alphabet (GOOG) 278.22, -4.10 (-1.45%) — Extended post-earnings retreat.
  • Reddit (RDDT) 91.67, -37.93 (-29.27%) — Sharp earnings-driven decline.
  • Chevron (CVX) 235.48, +4.02 (+1.74%) — Better-than-expected earnings supported energy sector.
  • Walmart (WMT) 123.51, +2.26 (+1.86%), Coca-Cola (KO) 94.08, +1.26 (+1.36%), Mondelez (MDLZ) 64.92, +2.39 (+3.82%) — Defensive staples standouts.
  • Regeneron (REGN) 927.89, +109.12 (+13.33%) and Eli Lilly (LLY) 1417.54, +43.84 (+3.19%) — Strong earnings reactions lifted health care.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) — Modestly lower on FY27 guidance; Q4 EPS $0.80 beat, revenue $9.14 bln (-4.5% yr/yr) roughly in line.

Stock Spotlight

Sandisk (SNDK) was one of the session’s most dramatic movers, plunging 13.43% to $1,151.43 despite beating Q1 (Sept quarter) expectations. Adjusted EPS of $49.51 topped the $46.67 FactSet consensus, and revenue rose 23% sequentially to $11.03 billion versus $10.72 billion expected. Datacenter revenue surged 61% sequentially to $4.8 billion — lifting its share of total revenue to 43.5% from just 11.7% a year earlier — driven by enterprise SSD adoption and three U.S. hyperscaler customers. Adjusted gross margin reached a robust 85.1%, and free cash flow rose 13% sequentially to $5.7 billion.

Despite these strong underlying results, the stock sold off hard as Q2 guidance ($55-$57 adjusted EPS vs. $53.60 consensus; $12.2-$12.6 billion revenue vs. $12.31 billion consensus) implied only modest upside, and management flagged conservative assumptions for fiscal Q3 sequential growth given historical seasonality. Consumer segment revenue declined 29% sequentially to $397 million as higher pricing pressured demand. The reaction illustrates a broader market theme this session: even companies posting exceptional headline growth (Datacenter NAND demand is forecast to grow ~40% in calendar 2027) are being punished when forward guidance fails to clear elevated expectations — a dynamic also evident in Intel’s and Amazon’s post-earnings declines.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries finished the week on a firmly higher note, logging a fourth consecutive weekly advance with yields across the curve down roughly 40 basis points from October highs.

  • 2-yr note: 4.59%, -7 bps on the day (-9 bps week)
  • 3-yr note: 4.65%, -8 bps on the day (-10 bps week)
  • 5-yr note: 4.72%, -8 bps on the day (-9 bps week)
  • 10-yr note: 4.93% (4.929%), -6 bps on the day (-6 bps week); price +15/32
  • 30-yr bond: 5.31%, -2 bps on the day (-1 bp week)

Safe-haven buying into Treasuries persisted despite elevated crude prices, as heavy tech-stock selling drove flows into the complex. St. Louis Fed President Musalem (non-voter) spoke in favor of additional rate hikes at a measured pace. Currency moves were modest: USD/JPY -0.1% to 157.51-157.53, EUR/USD roughly flat at 1.1165-1.1167, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.2% to 101.89 (+0.1% for the week).

Commodities

  • WTI Crude: $104.06/bbl, +2.0% on the day; settled just above $104, adding just under $1.00 for the week amid continued Iran-related geopolitical speculation.
  • Gold: $3,899.00/ozt, -3.3%
  • Copper: $6.48/lb, -1.8%
  • (Silver data not available in source material)

Overseas Markets

Asia:

  • South Korea: -3.5% — Weighed down by tech volatility spillover from U.S. results.
  • Japan: -2.1% — Overshadowed BOJ policy statement.
  • Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25%, acknowledging its price target has been reached; announced an increase in annual ETF sales to JPY860 billion from JPY330 billion starting in January.
  • Japan October Tokyo Core CPI +2.6% yr/yr (as expected); Tokyo CPI +2.8% yr/yr (vs. +3.3% expected); CPI ex food/energy +2.4% yr/yr.
  • Japan September Industrial Production +2.2% m/m (vs. +1.2% expected); Retail Sales +2.3% yr/yr (vs. +3.3% expected).
  • South Korea September Industrial Production +9.0% m/m, +1.2% yr/yr; Retail Sales +3.6% m/m.
  • Australia Q3 PPI +1.1% q/q, +3.6% yr/yr.

Europe:

  • Eurozone Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q, +1.3% yr/yr; September Unemployment Rate 6.5%.
  • Germany Q3 GDP +0.2% q/q, +1.2% yr/yr; October Unemployment Rate 6.4%.
  • France Q3 GDP -0.1% q/q, -0.1% yr/yr; October CPI +3.4% yr/yr.
  • Italy Q3 GDP 0.0% q/q, +0.8% yr/yr; October CPI +5.4% yr/yr.
  • Spain Q3 GDP +0.6% q/q, +2.7% yr/yr; October CPI +4.9% yr/yr.
  • U.K. October Nationwide HPI 0.0% m/m, +0.5% yr/yr.

Economic Data

  • Q3 Employment Cost Index: +0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%), following +0.9% in Q2. Wages/salaries +0.7%; benefits +0.9%. Civilian wages/salaries up 3.1% yr/yr — continuing to undershoot inflation, fueling concerns about pressure on discretionary spending.
  • Chicago PMI: 55.3 in October, down from 58.8 in September — signaling a deceleration in regional manufacturing activity.

Looking Ahead

Monday:

  • Final October S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 56.0) — 9:45 ET
  • September Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.100 mln; prior 7.079 mln) — 10:00 ET
  • September Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.9%) — 10:00 ET
  • October ISM Manufacturing (consensus 54.7; prior 54.5) — 10:00 ET
  • U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding financing estimates — 15:00 ET

Tuesday:

  • September Business Inventories (prior 0.4%) — 10:00 ET
  • September Factory Orders (consensus 1.2%; prior 0.1%) — 10:00 ET

Wednesday:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.4%) — 7:00 ET
  • October ADP Employment Change (consensus 75,000; prior 90,000) — 8:15 ET
  • September Trade Balance — data release pending

Markets will continue to monitor the fallout from last week’s AI-infrastructure spending concerns, with investor focus on whether the semiconductor space can stabilize above technical support following its break below the 200-day moving average, and on incoming data for further signals on labor market and manufacturing momentum heading into November.