Market Summary

U.S. equity futures are pointing sharply lower heading into Friday’s pre-market session, with S&P 500 futures down 80.00 points and Nasdaq futures down 739.00 points versus fair value, suggesting a greater than 2.0% decline for the tech-heavy index at the open. The renewed pressure follows disappointing earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and weak Q4 guidance from Intel (INTC), extending a theme of AI-infrastructure spending scrutiny that has dogged mega-cap technology names throughout the week.

Thursday’s cash session (29-Oct) saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 132.54 points (-0.3%) to 52,342.77, the S&P 500 shed 23.59 points (-0.3%) to 7,720.46, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 365.13 points (-1.4%) to 26,205.16. Importantly, the headline indices masked a far more resilient broader market: eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index gained 1.2% — outperforming the cap-weighted index by 150 basis points. Alphabet (GOOG, -12.29%) was the primary drag amid ad-business slowdown concerns, while software names ServiceNow (NOW, -26.95%) and Fortinet (FTNT, -20.09%) suffered severe post-earnings reactions.

That rotational strength now faces a stiffer test. Crude oil has surged back above $104/bbl on renewed Iran-related tensions, a potential headwind to the equal-weight/cyclical trade that cushioned Thursday’s losses. Despite the mounting pre-market weakness, the major averages remain higher on the week heading into Friday, though those gains are being challenged squarely at the open.

Market Snapshot

Thursday’s Close (29-Oct-26):

DJIA: 52,342.77 (-132.54, -0.3%)
S&P 500: 7,720.46 (-23.59, -0.3%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,205.16 (-365.13, -1.4%)

Friday Pre-Market Futures (vs. fair value, 08:02 ET):

S&P 500 futures: -80.00
Nasdaq futures: -739.00 (implying a decline of more than 2.0%)

YTD Performance:

Russell 2000: +15.2%
S&P 500: +12.8%
Nasdaq Composite: +12.7%
S&P Mid Cap 400: +12.2%
DJIA: +8.9%

WaveFinder Market Breadth (30-Oct-26):

Primary Sentiment: Bearish | 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
Primary Bulls: 703 | Bears: 1,087
Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 73%
Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 60.16%

Breadth signals a notable divergence — intermediate-term (40 SMA) positioning remains bullish with 60%+ of stocks above that average, but primary sentiment has tilted bearish amid the bulls-vs-bears count (703/1,087), reflecting growing caution around mega-cap tech following the AMZN/INTC reactions.

Sector Performance

Thursday’s session (29-Oct-26), ranked:

1. Health Care: +2.5% — lifted by LLY (+6.57%), MRK (+3.83%), REGN strength carrying into Friday
2. Real Estate: +2.3%
3. Consumer Staples: +1.6%
4. Utilities: +1.6%
5. Financials: +1.5% — aided by Mastercard (MA, +4.16%)
6. Industrials: +1.0%
7. Materials: not separately quantified (among the 8 advancing sectors)
8. Energy: not separately quantified (among the 8 advancing sectors)
9. Consumer Discretionary: -0.6% — AMZN weakness ahead of earnings offset CVNA (+15.66%), CMG (+8.88%), DASH (+5.61%) gains
10. Information Technology: -0.9%
11. Communication Services: -6.6% — worst performer, driven by GOOG’s -12.29% post-earnings drop

WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility, current):

Utilities: 3.59% (rising, P100) — highest volatility reading
Health Care: 3.13% (flat, P100)
Materials: 2.41% (rising, P100)
Consumer Staples: 2.37% (falling, P95)
Consumer Discretionary: 1.88% (rising, P100)
Energy: 1.85% (flat, P74)
Industrials: 0.56% (rising, P100)
Real Estate: 0.26% (rising, P100)
Financials: -0.23% (rising, P100)
Technology: -1.35% (rising, P32)
Communication Services: -1.82% (falling, P32)

Key Earnings & Movers

Intel (INTC): $69.10, -22.97 (-24.95%) — Beat EPS by $0.11 with in-line revenue, but Q4 guidance came in below consensus, triggering the steepest decline in today’s pre-market.
Amazon (AMZN): $227.23, -16.56 (-6.79%) — Missed FactSet EPS consensus, reported roughly in-line revenue and in-line Q4 revenue guidance, reiterated 2026 capex outlook.
Chevron (CVX): $235.29, +3.83 (+1.65%) — Beat earnings and revenue estimates on higher production and stronger cash flow.
NVIDIA (NVDA): $207.09, -6.57 (-3.07%) — Reportedly in talks to provide credit guarantees for an Nscale data center project (Bloomberg).
Regeneron (REGN): $878.47, +59.70 (+7.29%) — Topped earnings/revenue estimates; expanded Sanofi (SNY, +3.50% to $44.64) collaboration on next-gen immunology antibodies.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): $173.00, +7.39 (+4.46%) — Indicated higher on earnings and guidance update.
AstraZeneca (AZN): $183.60, +9.20 (+5.28%) — Better-than-expected results (European trade).
Caterpillar (CAT): $647.39, -65.98 (-9.25%, Thurs close) — Unchanged outlook and moderating sales growth overshadowed a solid quarterly beat.
ServiceNow (NOW): $109.67, -40.46 (-26.95%) — Disappointing earnings reaction.
Fortinet (FTNT): $139.10, -34.98 (-20.09%) — Disappointing earnings reaction.
Marvell (MRVL): $218.34, -33.31 (-13.24%) — Slid on reports of potential acquisition talks with Lumentum (LITE, +0.61% to $919.53).
Ford (F): Beat Q3 EPS; raised FY26 adjusted EBIT floor to $10.5-11.0 bln from $10-11 bln; maintained FCF guidance of $6-7 bln; cautious initial 2027 outlook.
Eli Lilly (LLY): $1,373.00, +84.70 (+6.57%) — Earnings beat.
Mastercard (MA): $635.70, +25.39 (+4.16%) — Earnings beat.
Carvana (CVNA): +15.66% to $68.30; Norwegian Cruise (NCLH): +13.45% to $18.22; Chipotle (CMG): +8.88% to $31.28; DoorDash (DASH): +5.61% to $179.00 — all on favorable earnings reactions.

Stock Spotlight

Microsoft (MSFT) reported a strong start to fiscal 2027, though shares gave back their initial pop and closed Thursday down slightly (-0.16% to $530.14). Adjusted EPS of $4.89 exceeded expectations, and revenue growth accelerated to 18.8% yr/yr to $92.28 billion — also topping estimates. The headline story was Azure, where revenue growth accelerated to 48% yr/yr to $33.17 billion, blowing past guidance of approximately 45% growth, as demand continues to outstrip supply. Management added 24 data centers during the quarter and guided Q2 Azure growth to 49-50%. Foundry revenue more than tripled yr/yr on additional GPU capacity and higher revenue per token.

Despite the robust top-line performance, investor enthusiasm was tempered by margin and spending dynamics. Microsoft Cloud gross margin slipped 200 basis points yr/yr to 66% as the revenue mix shifted further toward lower-margin Azure, and free cash flow fell roughly 27% yr/yr to $18.6 billion amid elevated infrastructure outlays. Capital expenditures of $45.2 billion came in below the prior >$50 billion outlook — largely due to delayed third-party capacity deliveries rather than reduced ambition — with management guiding Q2 CapEx to exceed $50 billion and spending set to accelerate further in 2H FY27. The results encapsulate the broader market tension: accelerating cloud demand and guidance versus the ballooning capital intensity required to meet it, a dynamic weighing on sentiment toward the entire AI infrastructure trade heading into Friday’s session.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are rallying sharply overnight, with yields on track to hit levels not seen since the second week of September. The move was sparked late Thursday by the weak AMZN/INTC reactions and has extended through the Asian session.

Overnight Yield Check (vs. Thursday close):

2-yr: -9 bps to 4.57%
3-yr: -9 bps to 4.64%
5-yr: -10 bps to 4.70%
10-yr: -8 bps to 4.91% (overnight print: +19/32, 4.905%)
30-yr: -5 bps to 5.28%

Thursday’s Close: 2-yr note settled 8 bps lower at 4.66%; 10-yr note settled 6 bps lower at 4.99% — moving back below its 50-day moving average, aided by a cooler Q3 Core PCE reading (2.5% vs. 3.3% in Q2) and Fed Chairman Warsh’s comments on easing inflation expectations.

Key Driver: The rally has been reinforced by the Bank of Japan holding its policy rate at 1.25% while acknowledging inflation has reached its 2% target (signaling future tightening) and the U.S. Dollar Index sliding 0.4% to 101.65.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil: $104.27/bbl, +2.3% (overnight) — climbing back above $104 on reports of potential strikes on Iran following midterm elections; Thursday’s session settled at $102.01/bbl, -0.7%.
Gold: $3,982.00/ozt, -1.2%
Copper: $6.505/lb, -1.5%
Silver: Not reported in available data.

Currencies: EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.1192; GBP/USD +0.4% to 1.3426; USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.6507; USD/JPY -0.4% to 157.06; U.S. Dollar Index -0.4% to 101.65.

Overseas Markets

Asia (mixed/lower, tech-led weakness):

Nikkei: 63,290.11, -1,369.40 (-2.1%)
Kospi: -3.5%
Shanghai Composite: -1.4%
Hang Seng: 23,294.42, +335.80 (+1.5%)
Sensex: +0.4%
All Ordinaries: +0.1%

AI-related shares were among the weakest performers across Japan, mainland China, and South Korea, while Hong Kong and India showed relative strength. The Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25%, signaled inflation at target with further tightening ahead, and announced plans to accelerate ETF sales to JPY 860 billion annually from JPY 330 billion.

Europe (mixed):

STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
Germany’s DAX: -0.5%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%
France’s CAC 40: +0.2%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.7%
Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.4%

Technology weakness (Infineon, STMicroelectronics) weighed on continental markets, while energy and health care names — led by AstraZeneca (+5.28%) on strong results and Bayer on a favorable Roundup verdict — supported the U.K. market.

Economic Data

Thursday’s releases (29-Oct):

Q3 GDP-Advance: +3.4% (consensus 3.0%; prior 2.2%) — economy operating on a solid growth track despite headwinds.
Q3 Chain Deflator-Advance: +2.2% (consensus 3.5%; prior 6.1%)
Initial Jobless Claims (wk ending 10/24): 194,000, -1,000 (consensus 196,000); Continuing Claims: 1.701 million, -21,000 — pointing to a still-tight labor market.
Personal Income (Sept): +0.2% m/m (consensus 0.3%); Personal Spending: +0.5% m/m (consensus 0.3%) — spending outpacing income growth.
PCE Price Index: +0.5% m/m, +3.6% yr/yr (vs. 3.4% in Aug); Core PCE: +0.3% m/m, +3.1% yr/yr (vs. 3.0% in Aug) — inflation moving further from the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Overnight International Data: Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI +2.6% yr/yr (in line); Industrial Production +2.2% m/m (vs. 1.2% expected); Eurozone Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q (vs. 0.2% expected); Germany Q3 GDP +0.2% q/q (beat); France Q3 GDP -0.1% q/q (missed, contracted); Italy October CPI +5.4% yr/yr (hot vs. 4.6% expected).

Pending Today:

8:30 ET: Q3 Employment Cost Index (consensus 0.8%; prior 0.9%)
9:45 ET: October Chicago PMI (consensus 55.9; prior 58.8)

Looking Ahead

8:30 AM ET: Q3 Employment Cost Index (consensus 0.8%)
9:45 AM ET: October Chicago PMI (consensus 55.9; prior 58.8) — a notable deceleration from September’s 58.8 reading would reinforce growth-slowdown concerns.
Market Close: Major averages remain higher for the week heading into today’s session, but those gains are being directly challenged by the pre-market futures sell-off tied to AMZN/INTC.
Ongoing Theme: Continued scrutiny of AI infrastructure spending and capital intensity (per MSFT, AMZN, INTC reactions) likely to remain the dominant market driver into next week.
Credit/Rate Watch: Treasury yields testing September lows; a continuation of the flight-to-quality bid would be a key signal for rate-sensitive sectors (Real Estate, Utilities) that led Thursday’s rotation.
Geopolitical Watch: Crude oil’s move back above $104/bbl on Iran-strike reports warrants monitoring for its impact on inflation expectations and the equal-weight/cyclical trade.