Market Summary

U.S. equity futures are pointing sharply lower heading into Thursday’s session, with the Nasdaq under the most pressure as the market digests another heavy batch of mega-cap earnings. As of 08:04 ET, S&P futures sit 29.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures are off 361.00 points below fair value, reflecting a steep premarket slide in Alphabet (GOOG) following its disappointing results. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 1.7% in premarket trading, giving back some of its strong gains from earlier in the week.

This follows a session on Wednesday (28-Oct) in which the major averages shook off a maze of competing catalysts to close modestly higher: the S&P 500 added 21.38 points (+0.3%) to 7744.05, the Nasdaq Composite rose 72.04 points (+0.3%) to 26570.29, and the DJIA gained 97.53 points (+0.2%) to 52475.31. The session featured a 10.58% surge in Oracle (ORCL) on upbeat long-term guidance, a Fed decision to hold rates steady at 3.75–4.00% (with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25-bp hike), and a sharp rise in crude oil and Treasury yields tied to renewed Iran-related geopolitical concerns.

Today’s docket is dominated by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — September PCE prices — alongside Q3 GDP, personal income/spending, and weekly jobless claims, all due at 8:30 ET. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns an 83.3% probability to a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Market breadth per WaveFinder is tilted bearish (674 bulls vs. 1,088 bears), suggesting a cautious tone heading into the open even as Europe trades broadly higher ahead of the ECB’s policy decision.

Market Snapshot

Prior Close (28-Oct-26):

DJIA: 52,475.31 (+97.53, +0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,744.05 (+21.38, +0.28%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,570.29 (+72.04, +0.27%)

Premarket Futures vs. Fair Value (29-Oct-26, 08:04 ET):

S&P futures: -29.00
Nasdaq futures: -361.00
(Earlier read at 06:09 ET: S&P -8.00, Nasdaq -268.00 — deterioration through the morning)

Breadth (WaveFinder, 29-Oct-26):

Primary Sentiment: Bearish | 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
Primary Bulls: 674 | Bears: 1,088
Above 20-day SMA: 71%
Above 40-day SMA: 51.05%

Prior Session NYSE/Nasdaq A/D (28-Oct-26): Decliners led advancers by a slim 7-to-6 margin on the NYSE; advancers held a roughly 4-to-3 edge on the Nasdaq.

Sector Performance

Ranked by 28-Oct-26 session performance (most recent full-session data available):

1. Information Technology: +0.5% (led by 1.8% gain in PHLX Semiconductor Index)
2. Financials: +0.4%
3. Communication Services: +0.4%
4. Health Care: +0.3% (IBB +2.0%)
5. Industrials: +0.3% (Vertiv +16.57%)
6. Energy / Materials: Among the “seven sectors finishing higher,” per Briefing.com, though exact % change not disclosed
7. Consumer Discretionary: Unchanged
8. Consumer Staples: -0.4%
9. Real Estate: -0.7%
10. Utilities: -0.9%

WaveFinder Sector ATR / Volatility Readings (29-Oct-26):

Materials: 1.86% (rising, P100) — highest volatility percentile
Utilities: 2.42% (rising, P89)
Financials: -0.89% (flat, P95)
Industrials: 0.02% (rising, P95)
Energy: 1.82% (flat, P74)
Consumer Staples: 1.57% (falling, P74)
Real Estate: -1.01% (rising, P74)
Health Care: 2.12% (flat, P58)
Technology: -1.09% (flat, P47)
Consumer Discretionary: 0.52% (flat, P84)
Communication Services: -2.06% (falling, P5) — lowest volatility percentile

Key Earnings & Movers

Alphabet (GOOG) 287.15, -34.74 (-10.79%): Missed EPS consensus by $0.90; revenue roughly in line. Google Cloud revenue +103% yr/yr, but free cash flow was negative $9.06 billion.
Microsoft (MSFT) 539.50, +8.49 (+1.60%): Beat both earnings and revenue estimates; commercial remaining performance obligation (cRPO) rose 73% to $677 billion.
Caterpillar (CAT) 647.26, -66.12 (-9.27%): Beat EPS consensus by $0.14 on in-line revenue, but shares fell sharply.
Merck (MRK) 143.85, +2.73 (+1.93%): Beat on earnings and revenue; raised FY26 EPS guidance above consensus while maintaining in-line revenue outlook.
Oracle (ORCL) 144.34, +13.81 (+10.58%) [28-Oct close]: Rallied on long-term guidance projecting >35% annual revenue growth through FY30 and at least $30B in FY29 free cash flow.
SK hynix (SKHY) 164.77, +19.41 (+13.35%) [28-Oct close]: Record Q3 profit and AI-memory demand outlook through 2030.
Micron (MU) 983.23, +54.47 (+5.86%) and Sandisk (SNDK) 1,404.77, +99.93 (+7.66%) [28-Oct close]: Lifted alongside SK hynix strength in memory.
Vertiv (VRT) 243.11, +34.55 (+16.57%) [28-Oct close]: Earnings-related strength boosted industrials.
NVIDIA (NVDA) 215.38, -2.56 (-1.17%) [28-Oct close]: Weighed on semiconductor gains.

Stock Spotlight

SK hynix (SKHY) — Record Profit Reinforces AI-Memory Supercycle

SK hynix shares surged 13.35% to 164.77 after the company posted record Q3 operating profitability and reinforced management’s expectation that memory demand will exceed supply through 2030. Revenue jumped 328% yr/yr and 32% sequentially to KRW104.62 trillion, while operating profit rocketed 632% yr/yr to KRW83.33 trillion — a record ~80% operating margin. DRAM bit shipments rose roughly 10% sequentially with ASPs up in the high-20% range, while server DDR5 shipments climbed more than 40%. Net income of KRW39.78 trillion was dented by KRW32.63 trillion in non-operating losses tied to FX and investment-asset markdowns.

The company’s long-term agreements now cover more than 50% of total 2027-2028 capacity across 14 key customers, with management describing DRAM and HBM volumes as “effectively sold out” through 2029 when combined with ongoing discussions. HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E in shipment and revenue share in Q4, aided by the M15X facility reaching full capacity by year-end. SK hynix also unveiled a roughly KRW100 trillion FY26 shareholder-return plan, including at least KRW30 trillion in dividends and KRW60 trillion in buybacks/cancellations. The results, alongside Seagate’s (STX) record 57.8% non-GAAP gross margin in its own report, are fueling the broader “buy-the-dip” resurgence in AI infrastructure and memory names this week, even as Samsung’s chip unit reportedly missed operating profit expectations overnight — a headline cited as reintroducing volatility to AI-related names in early Thursday trading.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Overnight/Premarket (29-Oct-26, 08:06 ET):

10-Yr: 5.034% (+6/32 in price)
2-yr: 4.71% (-3 bps)
3-yr: 4.78% (-3 bps)
5-yr: 4.85% (-2 bps)
10-yr: 5.02% (-3 bps)
30-yr: 5.35% (-1 bp)

Prior Session (28-Oct-26, 15:28 ET):

10-Yr: 5.045% (-7/32 in price)
2-yr: unchanged at 4.74% post-FOMC
10-yr: +5 bps to 5.05%
30-yr: +6 bps to 5.36% (fresh session high)

Treasuries are attempting a rebound Thursday, with shorter tenors showing early relative strength after Wednesday’s underperformance, though the 8:30 ET data barrage (GDP, PCE, claims) could quickly shift positioning. The ECB policy statement is due at 8:15 ET, with no changes expected to the rate corridor; however, the central bank separately announced President Lagarde will step down February 7 amid speculation she may chair the World Economic Forum. The $44 billion 7-year Treasury note auction results are due at 13:00 ET.

Commodities

WTI Crude: $101.98/bbl, -0.8% (premarket 29-Oct); settled at $102.74/bbl (+$2.87, +2.9%) on 28-Oct amid Iran-related geopolitical concerns
Gold: $4,038.40/ozt, -0.3%
Copper: $6.585/lb, -1.3%
Silver: Not reported in available data

Overseas Markets

Asia (29-Oct-26):

Nikkei: 64,659.47, +705.30 (+1.10%) — outperformance driven by strength in chip-testing shares
Hang Seng: 22,958.65, -136.20 (-0.60%)
Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
India Sensex: +1.2%
South Korea Kospi: -1.2% — semiconductor shares diverged despite record chipmaker earnings
Australia All Ordinaries: +0.5%

Key driver: AI spending and valuation concerns pressured tech shares broadly; Hong Kong Monetary Authority held its base rate at 4.25% following the Fed.

Europe (29-Oct-26):

STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
Germany’s DAX: +1.0%
France’s CAC 40: +1.0%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%
Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.6%

Key driver: Heavy corporate earnings slate supporting major markets, while weakness in Italy and Spain reflected country-specific catalysts. Focus remains on the ECB decision and Lagarde’s surprise resignation announcement.

Economic Data

Overnight releases (29-Oct-26):

South Korea Oct Manufacturing BSI: 78 (prior 79)
Japan Oct Household Confidence: 35.0 (expected 35.1; prior 35.4)
Japan foreign investment in Japanese stocks: JPY1,180.9 bln (prior -JPY67.5 bln); foreign bond buying: -JPY92.6 bln (prior -JPY160.5 bln)
Australia Q3 Import Price Index: -1.1% q/q (expected +1.3%; prior +5.7%); Export Price Index: +1.4% q/q (prior +1.1%)
New Zealand Oct ANZ Business Confidence: 52.5 (prior 51.9); Own Activity: 46.2% (prior 47.9%)
Eurozone Oct Business and Consumer Survey: 96.9 (expected 97.5; prior 97.5); Industrial Sentiment: -3.4 (expected -3.8; prior -3.9); Services Sentiment: 5.3 (expected 5.9; prior 5.9); Consumer Confidence: -17.9 (expected -17.9; prior -16.5)
U.K. Sept Mortgage Approvals: 53.44K (expected 54.00K; prior 54.81K); Mortgage Lending: GBP3.87 bln (expected GBP4.20 bln; prior GBP4.17 bln); Consumer Credit: GBP1.914 bln (expected GBP2.200 bln; prior GBP2.683 bln)
Spain Sept Retail Sales: -1.4% yr/yr (prior -0.5%)
Italy Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.3% (expected 6.2%; prior 6.2%); Oct Business Confidence: 91.9 (expected 92.0; prior 91.9); Consumer Confidence: 90.3 (expected 90.9; prior 91.2)

Still pending today (29-Oct-26): Q3 GDP-Adv, Q3 Chain Deflator-Adv, Sept Personal Income/Spending, Sept PCE Prices (headline and core), weekly jobless claims — all due 8:30 ET; natural gas inventories due 10:30 ET.

Looking Ahead

8:15 ET (today): ECB policy statement — no rate corridor changes expected, but market attention is on succession dynamics following Lagarde’s resignation announcement (effective Feb 7).
8:30 ET (today): Q3 GDP-Adv. (consensus 3.0%; prior 2.2%), Q3 Chain Deflator-Adv. (consensus 3.5%; prior 6.1%), Sept Personal Income (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Sept Personal Spending (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.9%), Sept PCE Prices (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.3%), Sept Core PCE Prices (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Initial Claims (consensus 196K; prior 194K), Continuing Claims (prior 1,728K).
10:30 ET (today): EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +77 bcf).
13:00 ET (today): $44 billion 7-year Treasury note auction results.
Friday: Bank of Japan policy decision in focus following this week’s South Korean chipmaker earnings divergence.
Ongoing: Earnings season remains in full swing; market will continue digesting reactions to Alphabet’s post-earnings slide (-10.79%) and Microsoft’s gain (+1.60%), along with December rate-hike probability (currently 83.3% per CME FedWatch) following this week’s FOMC decision.