Market Summary

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a mixed open on Wednesday, October 14, as traders digest another round of bank earnings, a fresh spike in crude oil, and anticipation of the September CPI report due at 8:30 ET. As of 08:01 ET, S&P futures sit +16.00 above fair value while Nasdaq futures are -51.00 below fair value, with semiconductor weakness continuing to weigh on tech, even as ASML posted a beat-and-raise quarter. Bank of America (BAC) is down sharply pre-market after missing on both EPS and revenue, while BlackRock (BLK) is surging after a blowout quarter featuring $205 billion in net inflows and $15.5 trillion in AUM.

This follows a choppy Tuesday session (October 13) in which the major averages finished with modest losses after a late-day recovery in semiconductors helped stem a steeper decline. The Dow shed -180.45 points (-0.35%) to 51,670.31, the Nasdaq fell -41.52 points (-0.2%) to 27,224.82, and the S&P 500 was effectively flat, down -1.79 points to 7,805.52. The session featured a sharp divergence between Energy — which extended its recent outperformance on refiner strength — and Health Care, which was dragged lower by a poor reaction to Johnson & Johnson’s earnings.

Heading into today’s session, the macro backdrop remains tense: Brent crude traded above $106/bbl overnight and WTI is up 1.9% to $95.90–95.93 amid reports Iran may escalate attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping ahead of the U.S. midterms. Encouragingly, Treasury yields have not followed oil higher, with the 10-year yield easing 2 bps to 5.20% even as inflation risk intensifies ahead of CPI. WaveFinder breadth data shows a “Very Bearish” primary sentiment reading (641 bulls vs. 1,211 bears) and just 12% of stocks above their 20-day moving average, underscoring continued narrow market leadership even as headline indices hold up near highs.

Market Snapshot

Prior Close (13-Oct-26):

DJIA: 51,670.31 (-180.45, -0.35%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,224.82 (-41.52, -0.2%)
S&P 500: 7,805.52 (-1.79, flat)

Pre-Market Futures (14-Oct-26, 08:01 ET):

S&P futures vs. fair value: +16.00
Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: -51.00

YTD Performance:

Nasdaq Composite: +17.1%
S&P 500: +14.0%
Russell 2000: +12.2%
S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.7%
DJIA: +7.5%

Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 14-Oct-26):

Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish | Primary Bulls: 641 | Bears: 1,211
4% Sentiment: Neutral (0 Bulls / 0 Bears)
40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
% Above 20-day SMA: 12%
% Above 40-day SMA: 31.9%
9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0/0 | Follow-Through: 0%
Context: 53% of S&P 500 constituents remain below their 200-day moving average (vs. 65% above in early July), highlighting narrow leadership concentrated in mega-cap/AI names.

Sector Performance

(Based on prior session, 13-Oct-26, with WaveFinder ATR/volatility context for 14-Oct-26)

1. Energy: +1.8% — Refiners led gains; ATR 1.90% (rising, P100 — highest volatility percentile)
2. Communication Services: +0.9% — Meta Platforms strength; ATR -2.02% (flat, P0)
3. Information Technology: +0.1% — Late-session semi rebound; ATR -0.14% (falling, P11)
4. Materials: Not separately quantified in performance data; ATR -1.57% (flat, P68)
5. Consumer Staples: Not separately quantified; ATR -0.03% (rising, P95)
6. Real Estate: Not separately quantified; ATR -2.71% (rising, P79)
7. Industrials: -0.3% — Recovered from -1.0%+ midday loss; Caterpillar (CAT) a drag; ATR -1.74% (rising, P79)
8. Financials: -0.4% — Mixed bank earnings reactions; ATR -1.89% (rising, P53)
9. Consumer Discretionary: Not separately quantified; ATR -1.18% (rising, P89)
10. Utilities: Not separately quantified; ATR -0.13% (rising, P100)
11. Health Care: -1.3% (worst performer) — JNJ post-earnings selloff; ATR 1.73% (rising, P79)

Note: Five of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher on 10/13; full performance figures for Materials, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities were not disclosed in source data, though volatility (ATR) readings are provided above.

Key Earnings & Movers

BlackRock (BLK) 1,120.00, +53.88 (+5.05%) — Beat Q3 EPS/revenue estimates; $205 billion in net inflows; $15.5 trillion AUM.
Bank of America (BAC) 51.60, -2.36 (-4.4%) — Missed EPS by $0.02 and missed revenue estimates.
Morgan Stanley (MS) 184.85, -1.79 (-1.0%) — Beat EPS by $0.10; beat revenue expectations.
ASML 1,708.11, -9.65 (-0.6%) — Beat-and-raise quarter, but shares pressured on warning that 2027-28 supply will fall short of customer demand.
Citigroup (C) 124.53, -7.39 (-5.60%) — EPS $2.85 vs. $2.65 consensus; revenue $23.85 bln (+8% yr/yr), strongest Q3 revenue in a decade.
Goldman Sachs (GS) 891.91, -2.04 (-0.23%) — EPS $17.01 vs. $12.86 consensus; revenue $18.68 bln (+23% yr/yr), second-highest quarterly total on record.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 331.43, -2.87 (-0.86%) — Rare EPS/revenue miss, offset by improved NII guidance.
Micron (MU) 953.19, -35.85 (-3.62%) — Pressured by Chinese memory-chip competition concerns (CXMT).
Meta Platforms (META) 762.50, +19.54 (+2.63%) — Continued communication services leadership.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 476.98, +18.17 (+3.96%) — Fresh record high.
Valero Energy (VLO) 456.46, +20.46 (+4.69%) — Fresh record high.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 248.61, -15.12 (-5.73%) — Disappointing MedTech growth overshadowed strong pharma sales.
Caterpillar (CAT) 772.78, -26.59 (-3.33%) — Continued recent retreat; weighed on DJIA.
AT&T (T) +0.2% (after-hours) — Agreed to sell AT&T Mexico to Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings for $2 billion cash.

Stock Spotlight

Goldman Sachs (GS) delivered one of the standout reports of the banking cycle, posting EPS of $17.01 against a $12.86 consensus and revenue of $18.68 billion (+23% yr/yr) — the second-highest quarterly total in firm history. Global Banking & Markets revenue jumped 32% yr/yr to $13.46 billion, powered by a 72% surge in equities trading to $6.44 billion on record financing revenue, while investment banking fees rose 21% to $3.22 billion on record advisory activity. Asset & Wealth Management also contributed, with revenue up 14% yr/yr to $5.05 billion and long-term net inflows of $97 billion marking a 35th consecutive quarter of positive flows.

Despite the headline beat, shares were only modestly higher (-0.23% in the prior session’s close, per the data) as investors weighed softer FICC performance (roughly flat yr/yr, down 24% sequentially) and a sequential decline in the investment banking backlog — now slightly below year-end 2025 levels. CEO David Solomon flagged a “challenging macroeconomic backdrop,” citing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices and bond yields, but emphasized continued resilience in the U.S. economy and growing opportunities tied to AI infrastructure financing. The results underscore Goldman’s push toward a more diversified, recurring-fee revenue base even as capital-markets volatility persists.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are on track for a modestly higher start ahead of the 8:30 ET CPI release, extending a steady overnight rally through the Asian and European sessions.

Overnight Levels (14-Oct-26, 08:02 ET):

2-yr: 4.78% (-1 bp)
3-yr: 4.90% (-2 bps)
5-yr: 4.99% (-2 bps)
10-yr: 5.194–5.20% (-2 bps); +4/32 in price
30-yr: 5.55% (-1 bp)

Prior Close (13-Oct-26):

2-yr: 4.79% (unchanged)
10-yr: 5.217–5.22% (-2 bps)
30-yr: 5.56% (-4 bps)

Key drivers: Markets are bracing for September CPI (consensus 0.6% m/m; prior 0.4%) and Core CPI (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%), with the CME FedWatch tool assigning a 78.4% probability to a Fed hold at the October FOMC meeting. Fed-dated futures separately show an 83.0% probability of a 25-bp hike to 4.00–4.25% at the December meeting. NY Fed President Williams (permanent FOMC voter) said he expects one more hike this year but does not see additional hikes needed in 2027. The October Beige Book is due at 14:00 ET.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil: $95.90–$95.93/bbl, +1.9% (+$1.75) overnight — driven by Reuters report of potential Iranian escalation against Strait of Hormuz shipping. Prior session settled +$0.29 (+0.3%) at $94.06.
Brent Crude: Trading above $106/bbl overnight, adding to European inflation concerns.
Gold: $4,160.90/ozt, -0.4% overnight; prior session closed -$13.70 at $4,176.60.
Silver: Prior session -$0.99 to $59.51/ozt.
Copper: $6.742/lb, +0.2% overnight; prior session -$0.02 to $6.73/lb.
Natural Gas: Prior session +$0.11 to $3.28.

Overseas Markets

Asia (14-Oct-26): Mostly lower on AI-spending concerns and rising oil prices.

Nikkei 225: 67,744.29, -0.1% (fifth consecutive decline per Nikkei)
Hang Seng: 24,314.17, -0.1%
Shanghai Composite: -0.9% (weakened despite stronger-than-expected trade/credit data)
India Sensex: -0.3%
South Korea Kospi: -0.4%
Australia All Ordinaries: -0.6%

Europe (14-Oct-26): Mostly higher, led by tech rebound following ASML’s results.

STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
Germany DAX: +0.6%
UK FTSE 100: +0.3%
France CAC 40: +0.6%
Italy FTSE MIB: 0.0%
Spain IBEX 35: +0.5%

Key driver: Technology and luxury shares supported European gains, while elevated oil prices from renewed Middle East tensions remain a headwind.

Economic Data

Released Today:

MBA Mortgage Applications Index (week of 10/10): -2.7% (prior -4.2%), remaining in contraction territory.

China (overnight):

September CPI: 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; prior 0.4%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; prior 0.8%)
September PPI: 5.0% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; prior 3.8%)
September Trade Balance: $133.53 bln (expected $116.80 bln; prior $119.09 bln); Exports +36.3% yr/yr; Imports +31.0% yr/yr
September New Loans: CNY1.080 trln; Total Social Financing: CNY3.550 trln; M2: 7.2% yr/yr

India: September WPI Inflation 11.39% yr/yr (expected 10.18%; prior 9.92%) — notable upside surprise.

Germany: September WPI +1.9% m/m (expected 0.6%); +8.7% yr/yr (prior 6.8%).

Spain: September CPI +0.3% m/m, +4.9% yr/yr; Core CPI +3.1% yr/yr; HICP +0.6% m/m, +5.0% yr/yr.

Prior Session (13-Oct-26):

NFIB Small Business Optimism: 97.9 (consensus 98.0; prior 98.7)
Existing Home Sales (Sept): +1.5% m/m to 3.99 mln SAAR (consensus 3.96 mln); down 2.2% yr/yr, with all four U.S. regions showing year-over-year declines — August/September marking the slowest two-month stretch of 2026.

Pending Today: September CPI and Core CPI (8:30 ET) remain the session’s primary catalyst, not yet released as of this report.

Looking Ahead

8:30 ET (Today): September CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.4%) and Core CPI (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%) — critical for rate-path expectations ahead of the October FOMC meeting.
14:00 ET (Today): October Beige Book release.
Earnings: Additional Q3 bank earnings reports expected to continue this week, with the broader Q3 reporting season picking up pace next week.
Geopolitical Watch: Continued monitoring of Iran/Strait of Hormuz shipping tensions and potential impact on oil prices; Axios previously reported Trump-Netanyahu discussions on potential renewed Iran strikes, with Trump reportedly resistant to action before the midterms.
Rates: Markets will watch for any shift in the 78.4% probability of an October hold and the 83.0% probability of a December hike to 4.00–4.25%, particularly in reaction to today’s CPI print.