Market Summary — Pre market — 2026-10-02

Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a sharply higher open heading into Friday’s pivotal Employment Situation report, with S&P 500 futures trading 30.00 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures up 144.00 points as of the 08:05 ET update. The bid in futures has been fueled primarily by a steep decline in crude oil, which is down 3.8% ($3.47) to $89.39/bbl on reports that European nations are weighing a release of strategic diesel reserves — a development that has also pulled Treasury yields modestly lower across the curve ahead of the 8:30 ET jobs data.

This follows a choppy but ultimately constructive session Thursday (Oct 1), in which the major averages clawed back from a broad morning retreat. The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.55 (+14.91, +0.2%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 50,926.47 (+20.51, flat), and the Nasdaq Composite settled at 26,892.63 (+10.53, flat). A sharp reversal in Treasury yields — the 10-yr note yield fell from an overnight high of 5.34% to settle at 5.24% — relieved pressure on rate-sensitive names and helped broaden participation, with the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.1%) outperforming the headline indices in a notable improvement from September’s narrow leadership.

Sector rotation favored Energy (+1.9%) as crude extended its advance to $93.02/bbl, while Technology (+0.8%) and Industrials (+1.0%) rode strength in AI-infrastructure names, semiconductors, and standout earnings from Accenture (ACN) and Synopsys (SNPS). Communication Services (-1.2%) and Health Care (-1.3%) were the session’s laggards, with Alphabet (GOOG) fading after an initial pop tied to its Gemini 4 Argon unveiling. Heading into Friday’s pre-market, attention has shifted squarely to the September jobs report, which follows further dovish Fed commentary that pushed the probability of steady rates at the October FOMC meeting to 76.2% (from 62.4% the prior day), per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market Snapshot

Thursday’s Close (Oct 1, 2026):

• S&P 500: 7,666.55 (+14.91, +0.2%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,926.47 (+20.51, flat)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,892.63 (+10.53, flat)
• Russell 2000: +0.5% (outperformer)
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.1% (outperformer)

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Nasdaq Composite: +15.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +13.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.0% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.9% YTD
• DJIA: +6.0% YTD

Pre-Market Futures (02-Oct, 08:05 ET):

• S&P futures vs. fair value: +30.00
• Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: +144.00

WaveFinder Breadth (as of 10/2/2026):

• Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
• 4% Sentiment: Neutral
• 40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
• Primary Bulls/Bears: 545 / 781
• 4% Bulls/Bears: 5 / 1
• % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 13%
• % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 21.38%
• 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0 / 0
• 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 44.83%

Breadth metrics suggest a notable divergence between underlying primary sentiment (Very Bearish) and the longer-term 40 SMA Sentiment (Bullish), with only 13-21% of names trading above their short/intermediate-term moving averages — underscoring the narrow leadership theme that has defined the tape since September.

Sector Performance

Thursday’s Session (Oct 1) — Ranked Performance:
1. Energy: +1.9% (leader; crude oil strength)
2. Industrials: +1.0% (AI-infrastructure strength)
3. Information Technology: +0.8% (semis, AI names)
4. Utilities: +0.6% (benefited from lower yields)
5. Financials: +0.2%
6. Communication Services: -1.2% (GOOG weighed)
7. Health Care: -1.3% (laggard)

Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Real Estate were not separately quantified in Thursday’s commentary but were implied negative, as only five sectors closed in positive territory.

WaveFinder Sector ATR / Volatility Readings (10/2):

• Technology: 2.35% ATR (rising, P100) — highest volatility/percentile
• Health Care: 0.73% ATR (falling, P5)
• Energy: -1.42% ATR (falling, P11)
• Communication Services: -1.56% ATR (falling, P5)
• Financials: -2.06% ATR (falling, P32)
• Materials: -2.19% ATR (falling, P11)
• Consumer Discretionary: -2.12% ATR (flat, P26)
• Consumer Staples: -2.27% ATR (falling, P0)
• Industrials: -2.44% ATR (flat, P11)
• Utilities: -3.73% ATR (flat, P37)
• Real Estate: -3.95% ATR (falling, P5) — lowest volatility percentile

Key Earnings & Movers

• NIKE (NKE) 32.06, -3.09 (-8.79%) — Topped quarterly EPS consensus but guided FY2027 EPS below expectations and warned revenue will decline by a high-single-digit percentage.
• onsemi (ON) 86.38, +6.30 (+7.87%) — Amended Synaptics acquisition terms in an all-cash deal valued at ~$5.7 billion; revised structure expected to be immediately accretive to non-GAAP EPS at closing.
• Accenture (ACN) 212.73, +29.36 (+16.01%) — Beat Q4 (Aug) EPS ($3.29) and revenue (+6.2% to $18.68B); strong bookings and AI conversion drove the rally (see Spotlight).
• Synopsys (SNPS) 490.54, +55.60 (+12.78%) — Among the best S&P 500 performers following its Investor Day.
• Micron (MU) 1,097.39, +32.28 (+3.03%) — Reversed an early post-earnings decline; Q4 beat and strong Q1 guidance on AI-driven memory demand.
• Amazon (AMZN) 249.72, +1.49 (+0.6%) — Reportedly aiming to sell $8 billion in Nvidia chips to outside investors.
• Nvidia (NVDA) 234.70, +3.84 (+1.7%) — Tied to AMZN chip-sale news.
• Broadcom (AVGO) 347.45, +3.81 (+1.1%) — Reportedly seeking to raise $60 billion in financing to fund chips for Anthropic.
• Alphabet (GOOG) 334.93, -5.81 (-1.71%) — Reversed an opening gain following the Gemini 4 Argon unveiling.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) 9.34, -0.99 (-9.58%) — Pressured as investors digest news that its WBD merger is expected to close October 6.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 30.95, +0.00 (0.00%) — Unchanged amid pending merger news.

Stock Spotlight

Accenture (ACN) — +16.01% to $212.73

Accenture delivered the standout move of Thursday’s session after its fiscal Q4 (August) report decisively beat expectations, with EPS of $3.29 and revenue rising 6.2% to $18.68 billion. The rally reflects a meaningful shift in investor confidence that AI is becoming a growth catalyst for the consulting giant rather than a disruptive threat to its business model — a concern that had weighed on shares after a weaker Q3. New bookings rose 5% in local currency to $22.2 billion (versus a 3% decline in Q3), producing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2, while Managed Services bookings hit a record $12.8 billion (1.4 book-to-bill). Management was explicit that large deals delayed from Q3 were not responsible for the Q4 improvement and remain on track for FY27, lending credibility to the turnaround.

Growth broadened across the business: Consulting revenue jumped 7% in local currency to $9.3 billion (up sharply from just 1% in Q3), Managed Services grew 7% to $9.4 billion, and all three geographic markets and every industry vertical posted positive growth, led by Communications, Media & Technology at 11%. On the AI front, nearly 100 additional clients began their first advanced AI engagement in Q4, pushing the FY26 total above 400, while revenue tied to ACN’s eight emerging AI/data partners more than doubled for the year and related bookings more than tripled. Guidance for FY27 EPS ($14.39-$14.81) was roughly in line with estimates, with revenue growth of 3-6% in local currency — though management cautioned that discretionary client spending has not meaningfully improved, and pricing remains competitive even as adjusted operating margins are expected to expand 10-30 bps.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Overnight/Pre-Market Levels (02-Oct, 08:00 ET):

• 2-yr: 4.77% (-2 bps)
• 3-yr: 4.89% (-1 bp)
• 5-yr: 4.98% (-3 bps)
• 10-yr: 5.21% (-3 bps); quoted at 5.214% intraday
• 30-yr: 5.59% (-1 bp)

Thursday’s Settlement (01-Oct):

• 2-yr: 4.79% (-10 bps)
• 10-yr: 5.24% (-6 bps)
• 30-yr: 5.60% (-4 bps)

Treasuries are on track for a largely flat start ahead of the 8:30 ET jobs report, following a volatile Thursday session in which the 10-yr yield swung from an overnight high of 5.34% back down to settle at 5.24% — yet another round of fresh 2026 highs was set on 5-year-and-longer tenors earlier in the week. Narrow overnight ranges were partly attributable to holiday closures in China and India. German bunds extended their bounce off 2026 lows, while JGBs faced renewed pressure, particularly on the long end, following hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI data. Dovish Fed commentary — including remarks from Vice Chair Jefferson and NY Fed’s Williams that policy decisions “may take more time” — has been a key driver supporting lower yields, alongside today’s sliding crude prices.

Commodities

• WTI Crude Oil: $89.39/bbl, -$3.47 (-3.8%) — pressured by reports of a possible European diesel reserve release; also noted at $89.35/bbl (-3.8%) in bond market data, slipping toward its 50-day moving average (~$88.60)
• Gold: $4,208.30/ozt, +0.1%
• Copper: $6.56/lb, +0.4%
• Silver: Not available in source data

Overseas Markets

Asia (Overnight):

• Nikkei 225: 68,309.46, -647.30 (-0.90%)
• Hang Seng: 23,972.29, -641.00 (-2.60%)
• Shanghai Composite: Closed (National Day holiday)
• Sensex: Closed (holiday)
• Kospi: +0.5%
• All Ordinaries (Australia): +0.7%

Hong Kong trading was weighed down by the absence of Southbound Stock Connect flows amid the Shanghai holiday closure. Elevated global bond yields and geopolitical concerns remained a broader overhang across the region.

Europe (Trading Higher):

• STOXX Europe 600: +1.0%
• Germany’s DAX: +1.0%
• UK’s FTSE 100: +0.3%
• France’s CAC 40: +0.7%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.2%
• Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.4%

European sentiment has stabilized following a volatile week, aided by lower oil prices and easing bond yields. France’s fiscal outlook and diminished prospects for a U.S.-Iran truce remain areas of focus.

Economic Data

Overnight Releases:

• Japan Sept Tokyo CPI: 2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.9%); Tokyo Core CPI: 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; prior 1.8%) — notable upside surprise
• Japan Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.5% (expected 2.4%; prior 2.4%)
• South Korea Sept CPI: 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; prior 0.2%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; prior 3.1%)
• Eurozone Sept CPI: 0.6% m/m (prior 0.4%); 3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.7%; prior 3.2%) — hotter than expected; Core CPI 2.5% yr/yr in line
• Spain Sept Unemployment Change: 23.6K (expected 17.6K; prior 44.4K)
• Italy Aug Retail Sales: +0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; prior -0.4%)

Pending Today (Not Yet Released):

• 8:30 ET: Sept Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 100K; prior 162K)
• 8:30 ET: Sept Nonfarm Private Payrolls (consensus 100K; prior 127K)
• 8:30 ET: Sept Unemployment Rate (consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
• 8:30 ET: Sept Average Hourly Earnings (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%)
• 8:30 ET: Sept Average Workweek (consensus 34.3; prior 34.4)
• 10:00 ET: Aug Factory Orders (consensus 0.0%; prior 0.9%)

The September jobs report is the key focus of the session, with the market looking for confirmation that labor conditions remain consistent with a Fed on hold at the October FOMC meeting.

Looking Ahead

• 8:30 ET Today: September Employment Situation report (Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek) — the primary market-moving catalyst of the session.
• 10:00 ET Today: August Factory Orders.
• October 6: Paramount Skydance (PSKY) / Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) merger expected to close.
• FOMC: October meeting in focus, with CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 76.2% probability of the Fed holding rates steady (up from 62.4% the prior session) following dovish commentary from Vice Chair Jefferson and other voting members.
• Earnings Watch: Continued attention on AI-infrastructure financing developments (AVGO’s reported $60B raise for Anthropic, AMZN’s Nvidia chip sales) as the market looks ahead to Q3 earnings season.