Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the week with a broad-based advance on Friday, September 25, as a sharp reversal in crude oil and encouraging signals from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks helped extend gains beyond the technology-led rally that dominated early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led all major averages, surging 478.64 points (+0.93%) to 51,828.53, while the S&P 500 added 39.28 points (+0.51%) to close at 7,743.51 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 129.34 points (+0.48%) to 27,089.76. The Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P MidCap 400 (+0.3%) also participated after spending much of the morning in negative territory.
Technology and semiconductors remained the primary engines of strength, with the Information Technology sector rising 1.0% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 1.4% on the day. Microsoft (+3.66%) was a standout mega-cap and Dow contributor. The session’s decisive turn came from a 2.7% drop in WTI crude to $92.17/bbl, driven by reports that U.S.-Iran talks had entered a “technical phase” centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz — easing inflation concerns and helping broaden participation into Industrials (+0.9%) and Financials (+0.5%). Energy (-0.9%), Communication Services (-0.7%, weighed down by a Meta pullback), and Real Estate (-0.4%) were the session’s only laggards.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq climbed 2.1%, while the Dow rose a more modest 0.3%, snapping a three-week losing streak. However, the headline strength masked significant underlying weakness: the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.0% for the week and is down 3.8% for the month, while the Russell 2000 declined 0.8%. A sharp mid-week surge in Treasury yields — the 10-year reaching as high as 5.22% — punished rate-sensitive sectors including Utilities (-3.2% weekly, the worst-performing sector) and Financials (-1.6% weekly), underscoring a market narrowly led by mega-cap and semiconductor names even as the broader tape struggled.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,828.53 | +478.64 | +0.93% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,089.76 | +129.34 | +0.48% |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.51 | +39.28 | +0.51% |
NYSE: Advancers 1,513 | Decliners 1,203 | Volume 1.06 bln
Nasdaq: Advancers 2,588 | Decliners 2,291 | Volume 7.32 bln
WaveFinder Breadth (as of 9/25/26):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 422 | Bears 640)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 140 | Bears 115)
- 40-SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 40%
- % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 21.02%
- 9-Month New Highs/Lows: 8 Bulls | 5 Bears (Follow-Through: 28.57%)
Breadth readings reflect a market where headline index gains are not being confirmed by the broader universe of stocks — a continuation of the narrow, mega-cap-driven leadership theme dominating September.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday’s session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch + narrative detail):
1. Information Technology — +1.0% (leadership from MSFT, semiconductors; ATR 1.61%, rising, P100)
2. Industrials — +0.9% (Bloom Energy +8.27%; ATR -1.94%, flat, P58)
3. Materials — Higher (listed among session’s strong sectors; ATR -1.80%, flat, P0)
4. Financials — +0.5% (ATR -1.66%, falling, P16)
5. Consumer Staples — Higher (magnitude not specified; ATR -1.01%, flat, P42)
6. Consumer Discretionary — Higher (magnitude not specified; ATR -1.75%, flat, P37)
7. Health Care — Higher (magnitude not specified; ATR 2.22%, rising, P74)
8. Utilities — Higher (magnitude not specified; ATR -4.62%, falling, P5)
9. Real Estate — -0.4% (ATR -3.27%, flat, P5)
10. Communication Services — -0.7% (Meta pullback; ATR -0.99%, falling, P5)
11. Energy — -0.9% (tracked crude oil decline; ATR -0.95%, falling, P0)
Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher on Friday, though overall breadth was only modestly positive. Technology carries the highest volatility reading (P100) among sectors tracked, consistent with its outsized influence on index-level performance.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Microsoft (MSFT) — $516.17, +$18.24 (+3.66%): Top Dow/mega-cap outperformer, helping drive the blue-chip index’s session-leading gain.
- Costco (COST) — $922.76, +$26.28 (+2.93%): Advanced on Q4 results featuring better-than-expected earnings, resilient comparable-sales growth, and improving membership renewal rates.
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) — $113.94, +$3.53 (+3.20%): Rallied after expanding its Anthropic partnership via an $11.6 billion, seven-year contractual commitment (potential total value up to $20 billion).
- Bloom Energy (BE) — $288.70, +$22.05 (+8.27%): Strength tied to semiconductor/AI-infrastructure-linked demand within Industrials.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $751.66, -$25.93 (-3.33%): Pulled back after its substantial Muse-AI-driven rally in recent weeks, pressuring Communication Services.
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) — Iridium stockholders approved the merger agreement, advancing RKLB’s end-to-end space strategy; financing fully secured via a $1.944 bln ATM offering and Iridium’s amended $1.775 bln term loan.
- Scholastic Corp (SCHL) — Traded sharply lower after Q1 results showed weaker sales, a wider adjusted operating loss ($88.7 mln vs. $81.9 mln), and heavier cash usage ($110.8 mln outflow); FY27 guidance reaffirmed but investor skepticism centered on Education segment weakness (-24% revenue).
- Earlier-week movers: AMD ($615.52, +9.95%) and Intel ($121.78, +12.14%) posted outsized Monday gains amid renewed semiconductor momentum; AMD crossed $600/share and $1 trillion market cap for the first time. NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 2.30% to $227.38 following CEO Jensen Huang’s pushback on AI-safety concerns.
Stock Spotlight
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) was one of Friday’s most significant movers, climbing 3.20% to $113.94 after announcing a major expansion of its relationship with Anthropic through an $11.6 billion contractual commitment spanning seven years — with potential additional commitments bringing the total relationship value to as much as $20 billion. The deal validates Akamai’s positioning within the AI infrastructure buildout and reinforces the broader market narrative of AI-linked capital commitments driving technology-sector outperformance.
The size and duration of the agreement stand out even against a backdrop of heavy AI infrastructure spending, and the move helped reinforce Information Technology’s status as Friday’s leading sector (+1.0%). The deal underscores how AI infrastructure demand is extending beyond chipmakers and hyperscalers into networking, edge-computing, and content-delivery providers — a theme likely to remain in focus as investors assess which companies are best positioned to capture incremental AI-driven capital expenditure.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries staged a roller-coaster session Friday but finished on a positive note, aided by oil-driven relief and a sense that yields were technically oversold after a sharp September climb.
Friday’s Yield Moves:
- 2-year: -6 bps to 4.85% (+10 bps for the week)
- 3-year: -6 bps to 4.93% (+9 bps for the week)
- 5-year: -5 bps to 4.99% (+12 bps for the week)
- 10-year: -2 bps to 5.16% (+16 bps for the week)
- 30-year: +2 bps to 5.49% (+16 bps for the week)
Intraday, the 2-year and 10-year touched highs of 4.91% and 5.22%, respectively, before easing. Shorter-dated maturities outperformed in a curve-steepening move. For the month, the 10-year yield has surged 44 basis points to a fresh multi-year high (highest since 2007), and the 2-year has jumped 53 basis points — a “bear flattener” reflecting concerns over sticky inflation, robust growth (Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate: 5.0%), and the prospect of further Fed tightening. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 64.2% probability to a 25-bp hike at the October FOMC meeting, with futures markets pricing in three additional hikes before the April 2027 meeting.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $92.17/bbl, -$2.51 (-2.7%) — driven by reports of a technical-phase U.S.-Iran dialogue around reopening the Strait of Hormuz; down nearly 4% for the week overall despite mid-week volatility that took prices above $96/bbl.
- Gold: $4,320.50/ozt, +0.5%
- Copper: $6.77/lb, -0.1%
- Silver: Not specified in available data.
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European index levels were not included in today’s available data. Currency and cross-market signals from the bond desk indicate:
- USD/JPY: 157.14, -1.1% — a strong, steady yen move contributed to a 0.3% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index; Japan PM Sanae Takaichi called the undervalued yen “problematic” (Bloomberg).
- EUR/USD: 1.1400, +0.2%
- GBP/USD: 1.3252, +0.2%
- USD/CNH: 6.7231, +0.1%
Geopolitical headlines remained a key overseas driver: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days (CNN); a White House official indicated the U.S. is “in a strong position” and “not in a rush” to reach an agreement. Separately, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports reached their highest level since the Iran war began (CNBC), and 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday — the highest volume since July.
Economic Data
- August Durable Goods Orders: Flat m/m (0.0%) vs. Briefing.com consensus of -0.4%; prior revised up to +0.9% (from +1.1%).
- Durable Goods ex-Transportation: +0.3% m/m vs. consensus +0.5%; prior revised up to +0.7% (from +0.4%).
- Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex-Aircraft (business spending proxy): +1.6% m/m, a notably robust reading following a +0.6% July gain — reinforcing a growth-mode economy narrative.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, September): 48.1 vs. consensus 47.8, up from the preliminary 47.8 but down from August’s final reading of 51.7 and well below the year-ago level of 55.1. Elevated prices continue to weigh on consumer outlook and household finance expectations.
Market impact: The durable goods beat on capital spending reinforced the “resilient economy” narrative that has been driving yields higher, while soft sentiment data did little to offset rate concerns. Combined, the data supported the case for continued Fed vigilance despite easing oil-driven inflation pressure.
Looking Ahead
Week Ahead Calendar:
- Monday, 9/28: No major U.S. economic data scheduled.
- Tuesday, 9/29: July FHFA Housing Price Index; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; September Consumer Confidence; September JOLTS Job Openings.
- Wednesday, 9/30: MBA Mortgage Applications; September ADP Employment Change; August Personal Income and Spending (including PCE Price Index); Q2 GDP – Third Estimate; August Advance International Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories; September Chicago PMI; EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
- Thursday, 10/1: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims; September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Final); August Construction Spending; September ISM Manufacturing Index; EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
- Friday, 10/2: September Employment Situation Report; August Factory Orders.
Key Watch Items: The August PCE Price Index (Wednesday) will be closely scrutinized as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ahead of the October FOMC meeting, where markets currently assign a 64.2% probability to a 25-bp rate hike. Friday’s September jobs report will also be pivotal in shaping rate expectations following a month marked by a sharp 44-bp rise in the 10-year yield. Continued developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz will remain a key swing factor for oil prices and inflation sentiment.