Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the trading week on a strong note Friday, September 25, as a sharp reversal in crude oil and encouraging signals from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks broadened what began as a narrow, tech-led advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major averages with a 478.64-point gain (+0.93%) to 51,828.53, snapping a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 added 39.28 points (+0.51%) to close at 7,743.51, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 129.34 points (+0.48%) to 27,089.76. The Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) also participated after spending much of the morning in negative territory.
Technology and semiconductors again provided the backbone of the rally, with Microsoft (+3.66%) standing out as a mega-cap and Dow leader. However, the real catalyst for the broader-based gains came from a $2.51 (-2.7%) drop in WTI crude to $92.17/bbl, driven by reports that U.S.-Iran discussions had entered a “technical phase” with a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement in focus. That relief helped alleviate inflation concerns and allowed cyclical sectors like industrials and financials to join the advance, even as overall market breadth remained only modestly positive (NYSE: 1,513 advancers vs. 1,203 decliners).
Beneath the index-level strength, however, participation remained narrow on a trailing basis. WaveFinder breadth data shows only 40% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average and just 21.02% above their 40-day moving average, with Primary Sentiment reading Bearish (Bulls 422 / Bears 640). This continues a September theme flagged by Briefing.com analysts: the cap-weighted S&P 500 has masked considerable weakness in the equal-weighted index and smaller-cap names amid a sharp rise in Treasury yields this month.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,828.53 | +478.64 | +0.93% |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.51 | +39.28 | +0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,089.76 | +129.34 | +0.48% |
Breadth (NYSE/Nasdaq, Sep 25):
- NYSE: 1,513 Advancers / 1,203 Decliners | Volume: 1.06 bln
- Nasdaq: 2,588 Advancers / 2,291 Decliners | Volume: 7.32 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics (as of 2026-09-25):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 422 / Bears 640)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 140 / Bears 115)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- % of stocks above 20-day SMA: 40%
- % of stocks above 40-day SMA: 21.02%
- 9-Month Bulls: 8 / Bears: 5 (Bull Follow-Through: 28.57%)
YTD Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.5%
- Russell 2000: +14.3%
- S&P 500: +13.1%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.4%
- DJIA: +7.8%
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday’s session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch + narrative detail):
1. Information Technology +1.0% — Strong; semiconductor leadership (PHLX Semis +1.4%)
2. Industrials +0.9% — Strong; boosted by Bloom Energy (+8.27%)
3. Materials — Strong (Industry Watch designation; no specific % disclosed)
4. Financials +0.5% — Strong; broad contribution
5–8. Consumer Staples, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities — Among the “eight sectors higher,” specific daily figures not disclosed
9. Real Estate -0.4% — Weak
10. Communication Services -0.7% — Weak; pressured by Meta Platforms pullback
11. Energy -0.9% — Weak; tracked crude oil’s decline
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility Read):
- Health Care: 2.22% (rising, P74) — highest volatility percentile
- Technology: 1.61% (rising, P100) — volatility percentile at max
- Industrials: -1.94% (flat, P58)
- Consumer Discretionary: -1.75% (flat, P37)
- Materials: -1.80% (flat, P0)
- Financials: -1.66% (falling, P16)
- Consumer Staples: -1.01% (flat, P42)
- Communication Services: -0.99% (falling, P5)
- Energy: -0.95% (falling, P0)
- Real Estate: -3.27% (flat, P5)
- Utilities: -4.62% (falling, P5) — weakest volatility reading
Weekly Sector Context: Information Technology (+3.1%) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+6.3%) drove the week’s gains; Utilities (-3.2%) was the weakest sector for the week, followed by Energy (-3.0%), Financials (-1.6%), and Real Estate (-1.4%). Communication Services (+2.2%) and Health Care (+1.7%) also contributed positively on the week.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Microsoft (MSFT) — $516.17, +$18.24 (+3.66%) — Top Dow/mega-cap outperformer, powering the blue-chip index’s session-leading gain.
- Costco (COST) — $922.76, +$26.28 (+2.93%) — Advanced on better-than-expected Q4 earnings, resilient comp-sales growth, and improving membership renewal rates.
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) — $113.94, +$3.53 (+3.20%) — Rallied on news of an expanded $11.6 billion, seven-year AI infrastructure commitment from Anthropic (potentially up to $20 billion).
- Bloom Energy (BE) — $288.70, +$22.05 (+8.27%) — Strength tied to semiconductor/AI-infrastructure enthusiasm, lifting the industrials sector.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $751.66, -$25.93 (-3.33%) — Pulled back following its substantial “Muse”-driven rally in recent weeks, weighing on communication services.
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) — Iridium stockholders approved the merger agreement, clearing a procedural hurdle in RKLB’s end-to-end space strategy; no specific price/change disclosed.
- Scholastic Corp (SCHL) — Traded sharply lower after Q1 results showed wider adjusted operating losses and heavier cash usage in the Education segment, despite reaffirmed FY27 guidance; no specific price/change disclosed.
Stock Spotlight
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) was among Friday’s standout movers, rising 3.20% to $113.94 after news broke of a significantly expanded partnership with Anthropic. The deal represents an $11.6 billion contractual commitment over seven years, with the relationship potentially expanding to as much as $20 billion including additional commitments. The announcement validates Akamai’s positioning within the AI infrastructure buildout, a theme that has powered broader technology and semiconductor strength throughout the week (PHLX Semiconductor Index +6.3% for the week).
The AKAM-Anthropic tie-up fits into a broader market narrative in which AI infrastructure spending commitments are increasingly moving equities on headline news alone, reinforcing the “twin pillars of the AI trade”—mega-cap technology and semiconductors—that Briefing.com’s Page One commentary identified as the primary force sustaining headline index gains even as the equal-weighted market has struggled. For Akamai specifically, the deal signals diversification beyond its traditional content-delivery-network business into higher-growth AI compute and infrastructure services, a pivot that appears to be resonating with investors.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries finished Friday’s session higher (yields lower) after a volatile session driven by swings in oil prices and a sense that the market was short-term oversold following September’s aggressive selloff.
Yield Levels (Sep 25 close):
- 2-year: 4.85% (-6 bps day; +10 bps week)
- 3-year: 4.93% (-6 bps day; +9 bps week)
- 5-year: 4.99% (-5 bps day; +12 bps week)
- 10-year: 5.16% (-2 bps day; +16 bps week) — intraday high of 5.22%
- 30-year: 5.49% (+2 bps day; +16 bps week)
Shorter-dated securities outperformed longer-dated paper in a curve-steepening trade. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3%, driven largely by yen strength (USD/JPY -1.1% to 157.14).
Key Drivers: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days; a White House official indicated the U.S. is “in no rush” to reach an agreement, noting nearly 40 million barrels of oil transited the Strait over the prior 48 hours. For the week, the 10-year yield surged as much as 14 bps on Wednesday alone following hot preliminary September PMI data and hawkish Fed commentary, ultimately reaching 5.18%–5.22% before easing modestly Friday. The 2-year yield has climbed 53 bps in September alone to multi-year highs, reflecting market expectations for additional Fed tightening — the CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 64.2% probability to a 25-bp hike at the October FOMC meeting.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $92.17/bbl, -2.7% (down $2.51) — Reversed sharply on U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz
- Gold: $4,320.50/ozt, +0.5%
- Copper: $6.77/lb, -0.1%
- Silver: Not disclosed in available data
For the week, WTI fell nearly 4%, despite an interim rebound above $96/bbl mid-week amid uncertainty over Hormuz negotiations, contributing to a 3.0% weekly decline in the energy sector.
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European index levels were not disclosed in today’s data set. Notable overseas/FX developments include:
- Japan: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented that the undervalued yen is “problematic” (Bloomberg). USD/JPY fell 1.1% to 157.14 on yen strength.
- China: President Trump urged Chinese President Xi to reduce China’s support for Iran; the broader Trump-Xi summit “yielded few outcomes” (WSJ).
- Currencies: EUR/USD +0.2% to 1.1400; GBP/USD +0.2% to 1.3252; USD/CNH +0.1% to 6.7231.
- Middle East: Saudi Arabia crude oil exports reached their highest level since the Iran war began (CNBC); Gulf allies reportedly want President Trump to maintain pressure on Iran (WSJ).
Economic Data
- Durable Goods Orders (August): Flat (0.0%) m/m vs. Briefing.com consensus of -0.4%; prior month revised down to +0.9% (from +1.1%)
- Durable Goods ex-Transportation (August): +0.3% m/m vs. consensus +0.5%; prior revised up to +0.7% (from +0.4%)
- Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (business spending proxy): +1.6% m/m, a notable acceleration from +0.6% in July — flagged as the key underlying takeaway, signaling continued strength in business investment
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September, Final): 48.1, above both the preliminary reading (47.8) and Briefing.com consensus (47.8), but down sharply from August’s final reading of 51.7 and well below year-ago levels of 55.1. High prices continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and forward expectations.
Market impact: The durable goods data reinforced a growth-oriented economic backdrop (Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate at 5.0%) that has simultaneously fueled the月’s rise in Treasury yields, while the soft sentiment reading underscored ongoing consumer strain from elevated prices.
Looking Ahead
Monday, Sep 28: No U.S. economic data of note
Tuesday, Sep 29:
- July FHFA Housing Price Index
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- September Consumer Confidence
- September JOLTS – Job Openings
Wednesday, Sep 30:
- MBA Mortgage Applications
- September ADP Employment Change
- August Personal Income and Spending (includes PCE Price Index) — key inflation data ahead of October FOMC decision
- Q2 GDP – Third Estimate
- August Advance International Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories
- September Chicago PMI
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, Oct 1:
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
- September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Final
- August Construction Spending
- September ISM Manufacturing Index
- EIA Natural Gas Inventories
Friday, Oct 2:
- September Employment Situation Report (Nonfarm Payrolls)
- August Factory Orders
Markets will remain highly focused on the PCE Price Index Wednesday as the next major inflation data point ahead of the October FOMC meeting, where futures markets currently assign a 64.2% probability to another 25-basis-point rate hike. Continued volatility in crude oil tied to U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz negotiations will also remain a key swing factor for both equities and rates.