Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a notably higher open on Friday, September 25, with S&P 500 futures +26.00 points and Nasdaq futures +198.00 points above fair value as of the 8:00 ET update (up from +20.00/+158.00 at the 5:56 ET early read). The rally in futures is being driven by a retreat in crude oil prices and easing Treasury yields — two of the primary headwinds that weighed on stocks in Thursday’s session. Reports of a potential phased U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a new proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days, are driving the risk-on tone, even as a White House official cautioned the U.S. is “in no rush” to strike a deal.
Thursday’s session (24-Sep) saw the major averages claw back from a sharp morning decline to finish little changed: the S&P 500 slipped just 1.80 points to 7704.23, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 3.34 points to 26960.42, while the DJIA lagged with a 161.70-point (-0.3%) decline to 51349.89. The Russell 2000 (-0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.4%) also finished lower. The session began sharply weaker as WTI crude spiked above $96/bbl and Treasury yields sat at multi-year highs, but a Reuters report on a possible phased Strait of Hormuz reopening sparked an oil reversal that helped technology and growth names recover intraday losses.
Market internals told a more cautious story than the headline flat finish: decliners outpaced advancers by nearly 2-to-1 on the NYSE and roughly 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq. Communication services (+1.9%) led sector performance on the back of a Meta Platforms surge, while materials, utilities, and consumer staples (all -1.0%) lagged. Heading into Friday, the major averages are on track for a mixed week, with the DJIA on pace for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, while Treasury yields remain the dominant macro overhang alongside elevated oil prices.
Market Snapshot
Thursday’s Close (24-Sep-26):
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| DJIA | 51,349.89 | -161.70 | -0.3% |
| S&P 500 | 7,704.23 | -1.80 | ~flat |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,960.42 | +3.34 | ~flat |
| Russell 2000 | — | — | -0.1% |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | — | -0.4% |
YTD Performance: Nasdaq Composite +15.9%, Russell 2000 +14.4%, S&P 500 +12.5%, S&P Mid Cap 400 +10.1%, DJIA +6.8%
Friday Pre-Market Futures (08:00 ET): S&P 500 futures +26.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq futures +198.00 vs. fair value
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 25-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Oversold
- Primary Bulls: 738 | Bears: 988
- Above 20-day SMA: 28%
- Above 40-day SMA: 19.81%
- Thursday cash session breadth: decliners led advancers ~2-to-1 on NYSE, ~3-to-2 on Nasdaq
Sector Performance
Ranked by Thursday’s (24-Sep) session performance, with WaveFinder volatility (ATR) context where available:
1. Communication Services: +1.9% — top performer, boosted by Meta’s Muse AI launch (ATR -0.71%, falling, P5 — low volatility percentile)
2. Health Care: +0.7% — led by Moderna and Eli Lilly strength (ATR +2.20%, rising, P74 — elevated volatility)
3. Energy: +0.4% — tracked higher crude prices (ATR -0.51%, falling, P5)
4. Financials: flat (0.0%) (ATR -2.25%, falling, P0)
5. Information Technology: -0.3% — recovered from a >1.0% intraday decline (ATR +1.26%, rising, P95 — highest volatility percentile in the group)
6. Real Estate: -0.4% (ATR -3.51%, falling, P0)
7. Industrials: -0.7% (ATR -2.45%, flat, P0)
8. Materials: -1.0% (ATR -1.66%, flat, P5)
9. Utilities: -1.0% (ATR -5.06%, falling, P0)
10. Consumer Staples: -1.0% (ATR -1.60%, falling, P0)
11. Consumer Discretionary: not specified in session recap (ATR -2.34%, flat, P0)
Key Earnings & Movers
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) — $132.00, +$21.59 (+19.55%): Surging pre-market after signing an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud deal with Anthropic, with potential expansion of up to $9 billion.
- Costco (COST) — $890.00, -$6.48 (-0.7%): Beat EPS expectations by $0.21, revenue in-line, adjusted comparable sales +6.7%.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $777.59, +$33.49 (+4.50%): Reached year-to-date highs Thursday; up roughly 36% since the start of September following the launch of its Muse AI agent, which gave investors a clearer monetization path for AI investments.
- Oracle (ORCL) — $139.52, -$5.04 (-3.48%): Pressured after Bloomberg reported the company sent a “force majeure” notice to the developer of its New Mexico data center project.
- Everpure (P) — $121.83, +$12.18 (+11.11%): Top S&P 500 performer Thursday after a bullish Analyst Day and FY28 outlook.
- MGM Resorts (MGM) — $33.68, -$4.17 (-11.02%): Among the S&P 500’s weakest performers after People Incorporated (PPLI) withdrew its acquisition proposal.
- Moderna (MRNA) — $194.82, +$12.71 (+6.98%): Continued strength lifted health care sector.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) — $1,183.79, +$32.80 (+2.85%): Additional health care sector support.
- BlackBerry (BB) — little changed despite a Q2 beat and raised FY27 guidance ($0.19-$0.22 adjusted EPS, $616-$636 million revenue), as record QNX segment performance was offset by softer Secure Communications margins and muted Q3 licensing guidance.
Stock Spotlight
Everpure (P) was the standout story of Thursday’s session, rocketing to record highs and posting an 11.11% gain to $121.83 following a bullish Analyst Day. While the storage and data management provider reaffirmed its FY27 outlook, the headline driver was a preliminary FY28 view calling for revenue of $7.0-7.3 billion — implying accelerating growth of 39-45%, up from the 37-38% pace embedded in FY27 guidance. Management characterized the results as an inflection point, citing eight consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth driven by share gains in core enterprise storage and expanding AI-related demand for high-performance data infrastructure.
The company outlined four growth vectors — Core + Core AI, Modern Data Software, Scale AI, and Hyperscale Solutions — and sees its total addressable market nearly doubling from $108 billion in 2026 to $207 billion by 2030. Notably, Everpure secured a second top-five hyperscaler design win in August, building on its first win in late 2024, with a meaningful revenue ramp expected in FY28. Profitability is also expected to scale meaningfully, with FY28 non-GAAP operating income guided to $1.7-1.9 billion (up 80-100% yr/yr) and operating margin expanding to 24-26% from 18.7-18.9% in FY27. Briefing.com’s analysis notes that while execution risk remains given the magnitude of the FY28 step-up, the two hyperscaler design wins provide early validation of a substantially broadened long-term growth profile.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are attempting to stabilize Friday morning after a sharp bout of selling this week, though yields remain elevated near multi-year highs. As of the 07:50 ET update:
- 2-yr: 4.89% (-2 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.97% (-2 bps)
- 5-yr: 5.03% (-1 bp)
- 10-yr: 5.17% (-1 bp)
- 30-yr: 5.47% (unchanged)
Thursday’s session (24-Sep) saw yields climb further after a rebound effort failed: 2-yr +2 bps to 4.91%, 10-yr +7 bps to 5.18%, 30-yr +7 bps to 5.47%. The 2-year note yield has spiked 57 basis points this month, while the 10-year has jumped 44 basis points, driven by hawkish Fed commentary (Williams, Paulson), elevated government debt levels, and soft demand at both the 5-year and $44 billion 7-year note auctions.
Friday’s modest yield relief is being attributed to lower oil prices tied to Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal — though Briefing.com characterizes this as a “dubious catalyst” given Iran’s conditions remain unchanged. Persistent overhangs include high debt loads, stubbornly high inflation, and increased government and corporate issuance. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed to 7.45%, per CNBC.
Commodities
| Commodity | Level | Change |
|—|—|—|
| WTI Crude Oil | $92.51/bbl | -2.2% |
| Gold | $4,345.20/ozt | +1.1% |
| Copper | $6.78/lb | flat |
Oil’s pullback follows Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. This follows Thursday’s session, when WTI settled $2.22 higher (+2.4%) at $94.68/bbl after touching an intraday peak above $96/bbl before retreating on Reuters reports of phased reopening discussions. Gold is advancing as Treasury yield relief and geopolitical uncertainty support safe-haven demand.
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mixed trading; China and South Korea closed for holidays):
- Nikkei: +1.4% (66,364.2, +850.20 points) — Japan’s 10-year yield eased from its highest level since 1996; yen weakened after President Trump reportedly expressed concern about the currency
- Hang Seng: -1.0% (24,510.09, -251.10 points)
- Shanghai Composite: closed for holiday
- Kospi: closed for holiday
- Sensex: +0.4%
- All Ordinaries: -0.6%
Investors digested the Trump-Xi summit outcome and awaited China’s PMI data.
Europe (strength in banks, miners, and select tech; energy lagged on lower oil):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
- DAX (Germany): +0.7%
- FTSE 100 (UK): +0.3%
- CAC 40 (France): +0.2%
- FTSE MIB (Italy): +1.0%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): +1.1%
European gains were driven by reports of a potential phased U.S.-Iran agreement, which pushed both oil prices and government bond yields lower.
European Economic Data:
- Germany October Gfk Consumer Climate: -30.6 (expected -27.1; prior -26.8) — miss
- UK September Gfk Consumer Confidence: -13 (expected -16; prior -14) — beat
- France Q2 nonfarm payrolls: -0.1% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; prior -0.1%) — in-line
- Spain Q2 GDP: +0.7% qtr/qtr (expected +0.7%; prior +0.6%); +2.6% yr/yr (expected +2.7%; prior +2.7%)
Economic Data
Thursday’s releases (24-Sep):
- Initial Claims: 197,000 (-1,000), vs. Briefing.com consensus of 202,000 — signals layoff activity remains low, consistent with a solid labor demand environment
- Continuing Claims: 1.719 million (+2,000) for the week ending September 12
- Q2 Current Account Deficit: -$246.0 billion vs. consensus of -$221.0 billion, widening from an upwardly revised -$212.6 billion (from -$228.6 billion) in Q1
Friday’s calendar (25-Sep):
- 8:30 ET: August Durable Goods Orders (consensus -0.4%; prior +1.1%)
- 8:30 ET: August Durable Goods ex-Transportation (consensus +0.5%; prior +0.4%)
- 10:00 ET: September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final (consensus 47.8; prior 47.8)
Looking Ahead
- 08:30 ET (Friday): August Durable Goods Orders and ex-Transportation data due
- 10:00 ET (Friday): Final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading
- Next week: Senate Republicans plan a vote on the House-passed data center Ratepayer Protection Act, per Politico
- Ongoing watch items: Developments on potential U.S.-Iran negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz; Treasury market direction following this week’s yield spike and soft auction demand; any additional Fed commentary on the likelihood of further rate hikes at the October and December FOMC meetings
- Corporate catalysts: Continued monitoring of AI infrastructure deal flow following Akamai’s Anthropic partnership and Everpure’s FY28 growth outlook