Market Summary
U.S. equity futures point to a modestly lower open on Wednesday, September 23, with S&P 500 futures trading 4.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures off 70.00 points below fair value as of the 8:04 ET update. This follows a mixed session Tuesday in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 185.14 points (-0.4%) to 51,863.69, the S&P 500 was essentially flat, down 0.06 points to 7,764.64, and the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a gain of 122.18 points (+0.5%) to 27,265.32, notching a fresh record close. The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) also showed relative strength, highlighting a rotation into small- and mid-cap names even as large-cap indices lagged.
Tuesday’s action was characterized by a sharp internal divide: continued strength in semiconductors (PHLX Semiconductor Index +2.1%) and broadening participation beneath the surface offset pronounced weakness in financials (-1.6%) and communication services (-1.0%). Chip stocks extended gains after President Trump reiterated support for continued AI development in his UN General Assembly address. Charles Schwab (-6.11%), Allstate (-5.56%), and Wells Fargo (-3.91%) led financials lower amid concerns about a flattening yield curve and softer capital-markets activity.
Heading into Wednesday’s session, market participants are digesting inconclusive U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, a lack of progress extending the U.S.-China trade truce ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and a firmer tone in Treasury yields as oil prices reverse higher. WaveFinder breadth data show a “Very Bullish” primary sentiment reading (839 bulls vs. 831 bears), with 84% of stocks above their 20-day moving average, though only 23.3% remain above their 40-day moving average — a divergence suggesting near-term strength has not yet been confirmed by longer-term trend participation.
Market Snapshot
Index Levels (Tuesday, 22-Sep-26 close):
- DJIA: 51,863.69 (-185.14, -0.4%)
- S&P 500: 7,764.64 (-0.06, -0.01%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 27,265.32 (+122.18, +0.5%) — record close
- Russell 2000: +0.5% (session)
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.3% (session)
Pre-Market Futures (23-Sep-26, 08:04 ET):
- S&P futures: -4.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: -70.00 vs. fair value
- (Earlier 05:56 ET read: S&P +7.00, Nasdaq -4.00 vs. fair value)
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +17.2%
- Russell 2000: +16.4%
- S&P 500: +13.4%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +11.2%
- DJIA: +7.9%
WaveFinder Breadth (23-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 839 / Bears 831)
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 0 / Bears 0)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Above 20-day SMA: 84%
- Above 40-day SMA: 23.3%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0/0; Follow-Through: 0%
Sector Performance
Ranked by Tuesday’s (22-Sep-26) session performance where data is available:
1. Materials: +1.9% — top performer
2. Consumer Staples: +1.2%
3. Information Technology: +0.6% (semiconductor strength; PHLX Semis +2.1%)
4. Health Care: +0.6% (Moderna +5.56% to multi-year highs)
5. Communication Services: -1.0% (Meta reversed lower late)
6. Financials: -1.6% — worst performer (Schwab, Allstate, Wells Fargo pressured)
Sectors without explicit Tuesday performance data (Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate) — WaveFinder volatility (ATR) context for 23-Sep-26:
- Health Care: ATR 2.41% (rising, P79) — highest volatility reading
- Technology: ATR 1.54% (rising, P100)
- Real Estate: ATR -2.42% (flat, P42)
- Industrials: ATR -2.20% (flat, P16)
- Consumer Discretionary: ATR -1.84% (flat, P21)
- Financials: ATR -1.90% (falling, P0)
- Materials: ATR -1.48% (flat, P11)
- Consumer Staples: ATR -1.40% (flat, P0)
- Energy: ATR -0.64% (falling, P0)
- Communication Services: ATR 0.03% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: ATR -3.90% (falling, P0) — lowest volatility
Key Earnings & Movers
- Worthington Enterprises (WOR): 68.76, +9.82 (+16.66%) — beat fiscal Q1 earnings and revenue estimates; revenue up 13.2% y/y.
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL): 48.99, +3.51 (+7.72%) — topped fiscal Q4 earnings/revenue; issued FY27 revenue guidance in line with expectations.
- NN Inc. (NNBR): 3.68, +0.31 (+9.20%) — raised FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with revenue range above FactSet consensus.
- IONQ: 45.80, +5.06 (+12.4%) — surged after demonstrating industry’s first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder on a standard CPU.
- AC Immune (ACIU): 2.81, +0.08 (+2.93%) — Parkinson’s vaccine candidate met all primary safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity endpoints in Phase II Part 1.
- Microsoft (MSFT): 502.63, +4.63 (+0.9%) — upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel, price target $575.
- Meta Platforms (META): 739.00, +2.41 (+0.3%) — WSJ reports Muse AI agent could disrupt wealth managers, financial firms, and brokerages.
- Lennar (LEN): +4.97 (+6.37%) Tuesday — Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake; homebuilders broadly strong (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF +3.2%).
- After-hours: KB Home (KBH) -2% despite EPS beat; Labcorp (LH) -1.4% despite reaffirmed outlook; Qualcomm (QCOM) -0.2% on new Snapdragon lineup; Biomea Fusion (BMEA) -20% on stock offering.
Stock Spotlight
On Holding (ONON) is sharply higher after its Investor Day unveiled ambitious 2029 financial targets alongside the company’s first-ever share-repurchase authorization — up to $1 billion of Class A shares through year-end 2029, representing nearly 10% of recent market capitalization. Management targets at least CHF 5.6 billion in 2029 net sales, a high-teens constant-currency sales CAGR, gross-profit margin of at least 65%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22%, with adjusted EBITDA expected to grow at a CAGR above 20% through 2029. The company reaffirmed FY26 guidance despite expecting Q3 growth to moderate to approximately 17%.
Growth is expected to be driven by Run, Sneaker, and Apparel categories, supported by owned-retail/DTC expansion, geographic growth, and new entries into Football and Golf — including the high-profile signing of Kylian Mbappé and plans for football boots in 2027. Q2 apparel sales grew 56.2% in constant currency with a 65.4% gross margin, offering early proof points for the long-term framework. The buyback signals management confidence in future cash generation, though it represents an upper limit through 2029 rather than an immediate commitment, and the reaffirmed low-20% FY26 growth target implies a meaningful Q4 acceleration that will hinge on wholesale ordering and holiday demand.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries have taken a weaker turn overnight, pushing yields higher across the curve as oil prices reverse from lower to higher amid stalled U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts. Market participants also remain cautious about increased issuance supply and continued Fed policy tightening.
Yield Check (23-Sep-26, 07:59 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.79% (+4 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.84% (+2 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.86% (+2 bps)
- 10-yr: 4.98% (+1 bp)
- 30-yr: 5.32% (+2 bps)
Tuesday close (22-Sep-26): 2-yr 4.75% (unch), 10-yr 4.97% (+1 bp) — yields had reversed intraday as oil rebounded after an overnight decline.
Key drivers: Tuesday’s $69 billion 2-yr note auction was described as “average”; today brings a $70 billion 5-yr note auction at 13:00 ET. Fed Governor Barr (FOMC voter) speaks on the economic outlook and housing at 10:05 ET. Geopolitical headlines remain in focus, including reports that Iran presented conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (lifting the U.S. naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets, ending the war on all fronts).
Commodities
Pre-market (23-Sep-26, 07:59 ET):
- WTI Crude: $90.80/bbl, +0.3%
- Gold: $4,339.00/ozt, -0.9%
- Copper: $6.80/lb, -0.5%
Tuesday settlement (22-Sep-26):
- Crude Oil: $95.21/bbl, -0.56 (-0.6%)
- Natural Gas: $2.97, +0.14
- Gold: $4,376.60/ozt, -4.50
- Silver: $66.59/ozt, +0.27
- Copper: $6.84/lb, +0.08
Crude is modestly higher pre-market after Tuesday’s decline, as investors continue monitoring Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments. Notably, WTI briefly topped $97.00/bbl earlier in the week before rolling over on reports Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline (at a slower rate) and on Iran’s since-disputed pledge to reopen the Strait within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases.
Overseas Markets
Europe (23-Sep-26):
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
- DAX: -0.8%
- FTSE 100: -0.1%
- CAC 40: -0.1%
- FTSE MIB: -0.1%
- IBEX 35: -0.4%
Major European indices trade mostly lower as falling oil prices and signs of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy provide some offsetting support. Stronger-than-expected Eurozone Composite PMI data is fueling speculation about another ECB rate hike in October.
Asia (23-Sep-26):
- Nikkei: Closed for holiday
- Hang Seng: 24,834.12, -253.60 (-1.0%) — technology shares under renewed pressure
- Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
- Sensex (India): +0.4%
- Kospi (South Korea): +0.9%
- Australia All Ordinaries: +0.1%
Asia-Pacific markets finished mixed amid caution ahead of the Trump-Xi summit; preliminary U.S.-China talks failed to produce an agreement to extend the trade truce, leaving trade, AI, Taiwan, and other geopolitical issues unresolved.
FX: EUR/USD -0.4% to 1.1413 (1.1406 per bond desk); GBP/USD -0.4% to 1.3285 (-0.5% to 1.3276 per bond desk); USD/CHF +0.3% to 0.8229; USD/JPY +0.4% to 157.92.
Economic Data
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index (week of 09/19): -1.5% (prior: -4.1%)
- Eurozone September HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.7 (expected 52.6; prior 52.7); Services PMI: 53.0 (expected 51.4; prior 51.6); Composite PMI: 53.1 (expected 51.7; prior 52.0) — stronger composite reading fueling October ECB hike speculation
- Germany September Composite PMI: 53.8 (expected 51.8; prior 51.8)
- France September Composite PMI: 51.2 (prior 48.5)
- U.K. September Composite PMI: 51.7 (expected 52.0; prior 52.5)
- South Korea September Consumer Confidence: 106.6 (prior 104.5)
- Australia September Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (prior 52.0); Services PMI: 51.4 (prior 53.2)
- India September HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 (prior 52.8); Services PMI: 55.8 (prior 54.1)
- Hong Kong August CPI: 0.1% m/m (prior 0.2%); 1.7% yr/yr (prior 1.7%)
Looking Ahead
Remaining today (23-Sep-26):
- 09:45 ET: September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Preliminary (prior 53.9)
- 09:45 ET: September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, Preliminary (prior 56.5)
- 10:05 ET: Fed Governor Barr (FOMC voter) speech on “Economic Outlook and Housing”
- 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, week of 09/19 (prior -0.64M)
- 13:00 ET: $70 billion 5-yr Treasury note auction
Key overhangs into the next session:
- September 24 Trump-Xi summit, with AI development, trade, and Taiwan in focus
- Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief
- Continued monitoring of oil price direction and its pass-through to Treasury yields
- Fed policy trajectory following recent hawkish signaling