Market Summary

U.S. equities opened the week with a broad rally, recovering much of last week’s steep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,104.02 points (+2.15%) to 52,389.96, the Nasdaq Composite rose 673.71 points (+2.74%) to 25,273.52, and the S&P 500 added 173.08 points (+2.35%) to 7,550.01. The S&P 500 reclaimed its November 3 (Election Day) closing level of 7,542.60, erasing its postelection losses. Intraday highs were stronger: at 15:35 ET the S&P was up 2.6%, the Nasdaq 3.0%, and the Dow 2.3%, so the indices gave back a little into the close.

Two themes drove the session: a rebound in AI and semiconductor names after last week’s selloff, and a sharp drop in oil on optimism about a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. The PHLX Semiconductor Index surged 6.9%, recovering part of last week’s decline of more than 12%. WTI crude fell 4.4% to $86.90 after President Trump said renewed strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” while negotiations progress. NVIDIA was the notable laggard, falling 4.27% on reports that CEO Jensen Huang had an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, prompting an independent board investigation.

Participation was broad. All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher, nine of them by at least 1.4%. Industrials (+3.8%) led, followed by consumer discretionary (+3.1%), information technology (+2.9%), and communication services (+2.1%). The Russell 2000 (+3.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+3.2%) outperformed the large-cap averages, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+2.3%) nearly matched the cap-weighted S&P. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain lower for the quarter, and sustainability of the buying is in question ahead of more AI earnings and key inflation data this week.

Market Snapshot

Index levels:

Dow: 52,389.96, +1,104.02 (+2.15%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,273.52, +673.71 (+2.74%)
S&P 500: 7,550.01, +173.08 (+2.35%)

Exchange breadth (Briefing.com):

NYSE: 2,186 advancers vs. 586 decliners; volume 1.43 bln
Nasdaq: 3,744 advancers vs. 1,187 decliners; volume 9.26 bln

Year-to-date: Russell 2000 +14.5%, S&P Mid Cap 400 +12.4%, S&P 500 +10.3%, DJIA +9.0%, Nasdaq Composite +8.7%.

WaveFinder breadth:

Primary sentiment: Bearish (997 bulls vs. 1,327 bears)
4% sentiment: Very Bullish (489 bulls vs. 114 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Bullish
Above 20 SMA: 113% (as reported; a percentage above 100 is unusual and should be treated with caution)
Above 40 SMA: 60.32%
9M bulls: 28 vs. bears: 6; 9M bull follow-through: 69.57%

The primary breadth gauge remains bearish despite the rally, while the shorter-term 4% readings are strongly bullish. That fits a sharp bounce within a damaged trend.

Sector Performance

All eleven sectors closed higher. Briefing.com’s Industry Watch listed Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, and Real Estate as strong, with no weak sectors. Daily returns were provided for only four sectors, so the ranking below is partly inferred.

Ranked by reported performance:
1. Industrials: +3.8%
2. Consumer Discretionary: +3.1%
3. Information Technology: +2.9%
4. Communication Services: +2.1%

Remaining seven sectors: Materials and Real Estate were flagged as strong, but no exact percentages were given. Financials, Health Care, Energy, Consumer Staples, and Utilities also finished higher, and nine sectors in total gained at least 1.4%. Their exact order cannot be determined from the data. Energy likely lagged given the 4.4% drop in crude, but no figure was provided.

WaveFinder sector ATR (volatility):

Consumer Discretionary: 2.69%, rising, P100
Communication Services: 0.17%, rising, P100
Financials: 0.57%, rising, P95
Real Estate: 1.71%, rising, P95
Health Care: 2.83%, flat, P84
Consumer Staples: 2.92%, rising, P84
Utilities: 2.87%, flat, P63
Industrials: -0.52%, falling, P58
Materials: 1.12%, falling, P53
Technology: -2.01%, falling, P26
Energy: -1.60%, falling, P11

Volatility is rising in consumer discretionary and communication services, at the 100th percentile, while technology and energy volatility is falling and at low percentiles.

Key Earnings & Movers

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 508.58, +59.54 (+13.26%): Extended Friday’s rebound after strong Q3 results and an Oppenheimer upgrade to Outperform.
Teradyne (TER) 246.00, +27.78 (+12.73%): Strong rebound among AI infrastructure names.
Bloom Energy (BE) 193.88, +20.64 (+11.91%): AI infrastructure rebound.
Tesla (TSLA) 378.05, +19.83 (+5.54%): Mega-cap strength; contributed to the consumer discretionary gain.
Meta Platforms (META) 641.37, +31.22 (+5.12%): Helped lift communication services.
Amazon (AMZN) 266.93, +7.63 (+2.94%): Mega-cap leadership; contributed to consumer discretionary.
Alphabet (GOOG) 286.01, +2.08 (+0.73%): Unveiled two new configurations of its eighth-generation tensor processing units for enterprise AI workloads.
NVIDIA (NVDA) 178.67, -7.97 (-4.27%): Lagged on the Jensen Huang reports and board investigation. The premarket loss was 5.5%.
Constellation Energy (CEG): Higher after a Q3 beat (see below).
monday.com (MNDY): Down sharply on a weak Q4 outlook.

Stock Spotlight

Constellation Energy (CEG) rallied after its Q3 report. Adjusted EPS was $5.06, its largest beat in several quarters, and revenue jumped 45.4% year over year to $9.55 bln. The company raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.50-$12.80 from $11.50-$12.50, its second increase this year. Growth came mainly from the Calpine acquisition in January, strong commercial performance, and higher PJM capacity prices, partly offset by lower nuclear production tax credit revenue. The nuclear fleet ran at a 97.2% capacity factor in Q3.

CEG signed about 4,560 MW of long-term agreements with three customers in Q3, including deals with Google and Amazon, bringing the year-to-date total to more than 8,500 MW. About 91 mln MWh of clean baseload generation, or 45% of the fleet, is expected to be under long-term contract in 2032. Management targets more than 20% annualized base EPS growth from 2026 through 2029, with many new agreements contributing from 2028. It also argued that market concerns about the midterms and tighter data center regulation are overdone. Briefing.com’s analyst view is that the contracts improve earnings visibility and ease worries weighing on the AI infrastructure trade.

On the downside, monday.com (MNDY) fell sharply despite a Q3 beat (non-GAAP EPS $2.14 vs. $1.41 consensus; revenue $377.5 mln, +19.1%). Q4 revenue guidance of $380-$382 mln sits below the $385.7 mln consensus. Net dollar retention slipped to 108%, and operating cash flow fell to $20.4 mln from $95.1 mln.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries started the week with losses in shorter tenors while the long end resisted. Yields at the close:

2-year: 4.56%, +3 bps
3-year: 4.60%, +1 bp
5-year: 4.66%, +1 bp
10-year: 4.86%, +1 bp
30-year: 5.26%, unchanged

The $58 bln 3-year note auction met weak demand. The high yield was 4.627% (vs. a 3.952% prior 12-auction average), the bid-to-cover was 2.53 (vs. 2.66), and the indirect bid was 55.5% (vs. 63.4%). The direct bid was 35.0% (vs. 24.6%). Treasuries held their ground and saw a small late bid after Al Arabiya reported that an agreement limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment is being drawn up. Those reports have not been confirmed by U.S. officials.

Last week’s strong October jobs report (payrolls +165,000, unemployment 4.1%) lifted the probability of a 25-basis-point December rate hike to nearly 80%, per CME FedWatch. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 101.67. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 GDP rose to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Commodities

WTI crude: -4.4% (-$3.98) to $86.90/bbl
Gold: +1.0% to $4,115.00/ozt
Copper: +1.8% to $6.35/lb
Silver: No data provided.

Oil has fallen roughly 13% over the past week and is now well below the $96.51 settlement from last Monday.

Overseas Markets

The data contains no index performance for Asian or European equity markets. Relevant overseas developments:

China will extend the suspension of additional 24% tariffs on U.S. goods by two months.
China October CPI was unchanged m/m and +0.7% y/y (expected +0.8%); PPI rose 5.7% y/y (expected +5.3%).
Japan’s September Coincident Indicator rose 0.7% m/m, while the Leading Index was 116.4 (expected 116.7).
Australia’s September Building Approvals rose 5.1% m/m, in line with expectations.
Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence was 2.4 (expected 2.1).
Germany’s September trade surplus was EUR15.6 bln (expected EUR19.2 bln).

Currencies: EUR/USD +0.7% to 1.1222, GBP/USD +0.7% to 1.3440, USD/JPY -0.4% to 157.76, and USD/CNH unchanged at 6.6694.

Economic Data

Wholesale Inventories: +0.7% in September (consensus +0.6%), after a revised +0.6% in August (from +0.5%). Market impact was minimal.
NY Fed October Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.9% (1-year), 3.3% (3-year), and 3.0% (5-year). Expectations for a higher unemployment rate a year from now rose to the highest since April 2020.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q4 GDP estimate raised to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday, November 10:

6:00 ET: October NFIB Small Business Optimism (consensus 97.9; prior 97.9)
8:30 ET: October CPI (consensus +0.3%; prior +0.6%) and Core CPI (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.3%)
13:00 ET: Results of the $42 bln 10-year Treasury note auction, following weak demand at today’s 3-year sale
After the close: CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings

Investors will watch whether the AI trade can hold its rebound. Elevated inflation (September CPI +3.7% y/y, core +2.6%) and a roughly 80% probability of a December rate hike make the CPI report especially important. Developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations remain a key driver for oil, and NVIDIA’s board investigation remains a stock-specific risk.