Market Summary

U.S. equities staged a broad, relief-driven rally on Wednesday, November 4, following Tuesday’s midterm elections. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,569.40 points (+3.03%) to 53,356.33, the S&P 500 rose 119.70 points (+1.58%) to 7,688.69, and the Nasdaq Composite added 364.50 points (+1.44%) to 25,756.90. The S&P 500 finished just shy of its 50-day moving average (7,693). The VIX fell 19.4% to 16.78. Futures reversed sharply higher overnight after President Trump acknowledged Democratic victories in both chambers of Congress, easing fears of a contested result. Democrats are projected to hold at least 54 Senate seats and at least 250 House seats. Investors also bet on bipartisan efforts to address affordability, including potential tariff relief and lower energy costs.

Oil was the second major catalyst. WTI crude settled $7.93 lower (-8.3%) at $88.23, extending its week-to-date decline to more than 15%, after reports that President Trump had no immediate plans to strike Iran and comments from presumptive Senate Majority Leader Schumer about support for a resolution to end the Iran war. Treasury yields fell to their lowest closing levels in about eight weeks.

Sector rotation was pronounced. Consumer-oriented and previously overlooked areas led, while semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names lagged on concerns that Democratic control could slow data center construction. Financials, health care, and consumer staples reached fresh all-time highs. Energy (-4.7%) and industrials (-1.1%) were the only lagging sectors. Breadth was solid, but persistent semiconductor weakness raised questions about the AI trade.

Market Snapshot

Index	Level	Change	%
Dow	53,356.33	+1,569.40	+3.03%
S&P 500	7,688.69	+119.70	+1.58%
Nasdaq	25,756.90	+364.50	+1.44%

NYSE: Advancers 2,070, decliners 648, volume 1.71 bln.
Nasdaq: Advancers 3,235, decliners 1,629, volume 10.00 bln.
VIX: -19.4% to 16.78.
WaveFinder breadth: 93% of stocks above the 20-day SMA and 58.01% above the 40-day SMA.
WaveFinder sentiment: Primary sentiment Bearish (929 bulls vs. 1,344 bears). The 4% sentiment is Very Bullish (730 bulls vs. 435 bears), and the 40 SMA sentiment is Bullish. The 9M count is 65 bulls vs. 66 bears, with bull follow-through at 34.62%.

Sector Performance

Ranked by the session’s reported returns (Briefing.com). Sectors without a reported figure are listed after, with WaveFinder ATR readings.

Rank	Sector	Day Return	WaveFinder ATR
1	Consumer Discretionary	+4.3%	2.53% (rising, P100)
2	Financials	+3.5%	1.54% (rising, P100)
3	Real Estate	+3.2%	1.95% (rising, P100)
4	Materials	+3.1%	2.78% (rising, P89)
5 (tie)	Health Care	+3.0%	3.15% (rising, P100)
5 (tie)	Communication Services	+3.0%	-0.13% (rising, P100)
5 (tie)	Consumer Staples	+3.0%	3.58% (rising, P100)
8	Information Technology	+0.5%	-2.62% (falling, P0)
9	Industrials	-1.1%	0.58% (rising, P95)
10	Energy	-4.7%	-1.11% (falling, P0)
n/a	Utilities	Not reported	3.44% (rising, P89)

Utilities is not named in Briefing’s Strong or Weak lists, and no return was provided, so its rank cannot be determined from the data. Its ATR reading shows rising volatility.

Key Earnings & Movers

Gainers

Dollar Tree (DLTR): $147.00, +$12.93 (+9.64%). Discount retailers rallied on expectations that lower gasoline prices will help household purchasing power.
3M (MMM): $193.95, +$16.90 (+9.55%). Announced a broad resolution of PFAS-related personal injury claims and authorized a new $6 billion buyback.
Dollar General (DG): $141.64, +$11.12 (+8.52%). Same discount retail theme.
Microsoft (MSFT): $555.80, +$34.81 (+6.68%). A Needham thesis holds that tighter data center restrictions could benefit established hyperscalers.
McDonald’s (MCD): $280.22, +$17.18 (+6.53%). Rallied after mixed Q3 results with improving U.S. trends late in the quarter.
Amazon (AMZN): $266.03, +$15.34 (+6.12%). Same hyperscaler thesis.
AMD: $488.78, +$4.88 (+1.01%). Topped Q3 expectations and raised its 2027 outlook.
Homebuilders: The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF jumped 7.6%.

Decliners

Comfort Systems (FIX): $1,089.89, -$195.24 (-15.19%). AI infrastructure weakness.
CVS Health (CVS): $79.96, -$11.45 (-12.53%). Plans to separate into two publicly traded companies by the first half of 2028.
GE Vernova (GEV): $832.85, -$85.35 (-9.30%). AI infrastructure weakness.
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD): $13.99, -$1.40 (-9.10%). Fell to a record low on data center construction concerns.
PHLX Semiconductor Index: -3.1%.

Stock Spotlight

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was the focal point of the AI trade. Shares closed at $488.78 (+1.01%) after a volatile session, following a strong Q3 report released after Tuesday’s close. Adjusted EPS jumped 74% year over year to $2.09, and revenue rose 44.7% to a record $13.38 billion. Data Center revenue grew 97% year over year and 27% sequentially to a record $8.5 billion, or 64% of total revenue. Volume shipments of MI455X GPUs began, with Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle bringing their first Helios racks online.

Guidance was the highlight. Q4 revenue is guided to $16.49-17.51 billion, implying about 66% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. AMD now expects 2027 revenue growth above 80%, up from a prior outlook above 70%, with server CPU revenue roughly doubling. Q4 gross margin is guided to about 55%, versus 56% non-GAAP in Q3, reflecting a greater mix of lower-margin AI accelerators. Client revenue rose 7% to $2.9 billion but fell 4% sequentially on higher memory costs, and Gaming fell 40% to $773 million. AMD is planning for double-digit declines in 2027 PC unit shipments. The muted gain, against a strong report, shows the sector-wide pressure from data center construction concerns.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries rallied, sending yields on the 10-year and shorter tenors to their lowest closing levels since early September. Gains accelerated mid-morning as oil fell below $90, stopping near its 200-day moving average (86.92). Yields ended at their lowest levels in eight weeks.

2-yr: -3 bps to 4.59%
3-yr: -4 bps to 4.64%
5-yr: -5 bps to 4.69%
10-yr: -6 bps to 4.89% (price +12/32)
30-yr: -4 bps to 5.28%
U.S. Dollar Index: -0.3% to 101.59
Currencies: EUR/USD +0.3% to 1.1225, GBP/USD +0.4% to 1.3468, USD/JPY -0.1% to 158.49, USD/CNH +0.1% to 6.6755.
Refunding: Next week’s auctions are $58 billion 3-yr notes, $42 billion 10-yr notes, and $25 billion 30-yr bonds. Treasury expects to hold nominal coupon and floating-rate note auction sizes steady for the next several quarters.

Commodities

WTI crude: -8.3% to $88.23/bbl, the lowest since late August and down more than 15% for the week.
Gold: +3.4% to $4,073.10/oz.
Copper: +0.5% to $6.43/lb.
Silver: No data provided.
Crude inventories: Down 865,000 barrels, after a 1.892 million barrel draw the prior week.

Overseas Markets

The data provided has no Asian or European equity index performance, so none is reported. Available overseas information covers central bank commentary and economic data:

ECB: Policymaker Nagel said a rate hike will likely be needed in December.
Bank of England: The Times shadow monetary policy committee voted unanimously for a rate hike.
Eurozone: October CPI +4.0% y/y (as expected; prior +3.8%), core CPI +2.5% y/y. Services PMI 51.4 (expected 51.7; prior 53.0), composite 51.7.
Germany: Services PMI 52.5, composite 53.4, both above expectations.
France: Services PMI 46.2 (expected 48.4; prior 51.2), composite 46.6, a sharp miss.
U.K.: Services PMI 52.8 (expected 53.1), composite 52.9.
China: RatingDog Services PMI 50.8 (expected 51.7; prior 51.6).
India: HSBC Services PMI 55.8 (expected 56.2).
Australia: Services PMI 48.5, below the 50 expansion line despite beating expectations of 47.8.

Economic Data

ADP Employment (Oct): +86,000 (consensus 75,000), after a downwardly revised 86,000 in September. Service-providing hiring was 82,000.
ISM Services PMI (Oct): 54.5% (consensus 54.8%) from 54.9%. Still expanding, despite continued price increases.
S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (Oct, final): 56.1, down from 57.9 flash and 58.8 in September.
Trade deficit (Sep): Narrowed to $105.0 billion (consensus $108.4 billion) from a revised $105.7 billion. Computers and accessories drove the rise in both exports (+$5.8 billion) and imports (+$5.2 billion).
MBA Mortgage Index: -1.2% (Purchase -2.0%, Refinance +0.1%), after +3.4% the prior week.

Taken together, the data was solid and supportive of the rate-decline narrative.

Looking Ahead

Geopolitics and policy: Watch for developments on Iran, a possible congressional resolution to end the war, and bipartisan affordability proposals.
Economic data: The Bond Market Update’s “Day Ahead” begins with an 8:30 ET release of “Preliminary Q…” (the text is cut off, so the specific release can’t be confirmed).
Treasury auctions: Next week brings the $58 billion 3-yr, $42 billion 10-yr, and $25 billion 30-yr auctions.
Technical levels: The S&P 500 closed just below its 50-day moving average (7,693). WTI crude is above its 200-day moving average (86.92).
AI trade: Focus will remain on semiconductors and AI infrastructure, given data center regulation concerns and the market’s more selective approach to AI winners and losers.
Earnings: The data names no specific companies reporting next session.