Market Analysis

Market Summary — Post market — 2026-10-31

By WaveRider AI7 min read

Market Summary

U.S. equities closed out a turbulent week with a sharp Friday selloff, as the deepening correction in AI-related stocks overwhelmed resilience elsewhere in the market. The S&P 500 fell 140.32 points (-1.82%) to 7580.14, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 747.73 points (-2.85%) to 25457.43, and the DJIA lost 572.25 points (-1.09%) to 51770.52. The technology-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the damage, with the index briefly down nearly 4.0% intraday before paring losses, extending its retreat from its October peak near 27,700 to roughly 9.0%.

The session’s defining story was a semiconductor rout triggered by Intel’s (INTC) disappointing Q4 guidance, which cited weakening PC demand amid rising memory prices and supply constraints limiting the company’s ability to meet data center demand. The PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 7.3% and closed below its 200-day moving average, dragging down PC makers HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) alongside chip bellwether NVIDIA (NVDA). Amazon (AMZN) added to mega-cap growth concerns following an earnings miss, negative free cash flow, and plans for even greater 2027 infrastructure spending, pressuring the consumer discretionary sector.

Unlike Thursday’s session, where broad strength outside mega-cap tech offset index-level losses, Friday’s selling was considerably more widespread — the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.8% and small/mid-caps also came under pressure. Defensive sectors (energy, consumer staples, health care, utilities) provided a partial offset but were insufficient to counterbalance the tech-driven decline. For the week, the S&P 500 declined 0.6%, the Nasdaq fell 2.0%, and the DJIA lost 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 each gained 1.3%, underscoring a stark divergence between mega-cap technology and the broader market.

Market Snapshot

IndexLevelChange% Change
Dow (DJIA)51,770.52-572.25-1.09%
Nasdaq Composite25,457.43-747.73-2.85%
S&P 5007,580.14-140.32-1.82%
10-Yr Note Yield4.93%-6 bps—

Advance/Decline (NYSE): 998 advancers / 1,715 decliners, Volume 1.57 bln
Advance/Decline (Nasdaq): 1,091 advancers / 3,366 decliners, Volume 9.04 bln

WaveFinder Breadth (10/30):

  • Primary Sentiment: Bearish | 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
  • Primary Bulls: 790 | Bears: 1,427
  • 4% Bulls: 109 | Bears: 741
  • Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 56%
  • Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 49.72%
  • 9-Month Bulls: 11 | Bears: 79 (Bull Follow-Through: 30.43%)

YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +13.3% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +10.8% | S&P 500 +10.7% | Nasdaq Composite +9.4% | DJIA +7.7%

Sector Performance (Ranked, Session)

1. Energy: +1.9% — Strength tied to crude oil gains; Chevron (CVX) earnings beat
2. Consumer Staples: +1.4% — Defensive buying; Walmart, Coca-Cola, Mondelez led
3. Utilities: +0.6% — Defensive rotation; ATR 3.46% (rising, P100)
4. Health Care: +0.4% — Lifted by Regeneron and Eli Lilly earnings reactions
5. Real Estate: +0.2% — Modest gain amid Treasury safe-haven buying
6. Consumer Discretionary: -0.9% — Amazon earnings miss weighed; ATR 1.62% (rising, P95)
7. Communication Services: -1.1% — Alphabet post-earnings retreat, Reddit plunge; ATR -1.53% (falling, P53)
8. Industrials: -1.6% — Weakness spread to AI infrastructure names; ATR -0.39% (rising, P79)
9. Financials: Weak (daily % not disclosed) — ATR -0.86% (rising, P95)
10. Information Technology: -4.3% — Worst performer; semiconductor collapse, Intel-led; ATR -1.92% (flat, P5)
11. Materials: Daily % not disclosed — ATR 3.05% (rising, P100)

Note: Briefing.com’s Industry Watch classified Strong sectors as Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities; Weak sectors as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Industrials, Financials.

Key Earnings & Movers

  • Intel (INTC) 65.76, -26.31 (-28.58%) — Severe post-earnings decline on disappointing Q4 guidance; cited weakening PC demand, rising memory prices, and supply constraints limiting data center fulfillment
  • Reddit (RDDT) 91.67, -37.93 (-29.27%) — Sharp earnings-driven decline
  • Sandisk (SNDK) 1151.43, -178.62 (-13.43%) — Beat Q1 estimates but modest Q2 revenue guidance and seasonal caution overshadowed strong Datacenter growth
  • Dell (DELL) 424.16, -51.35 (-10.80%) — Dragged down by Intel’s weak PC demand commentary
  • HP Inc. (HPQ) 28.78, -3.05 (-9.58%) — Same PC-demand pressure as Dell
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) 204.78, -8.88 (-4.16%) — Retreated on broader semiconductor weakness
  • Alphabet (GOOG) 278.22, -4.10 (-1.45%) — Extended post-earnings retreat
  • Amazon (AMZN) 240.35, -3.44 (-1.41%) — Earnings miss, negative FCF despite AWS growth; 2027 capex plans raised return concerns
  • Regeneron (REGN) 927.89, +109.12 (+13.33%) — Strong earnings reaction
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) 1417.54, +43.84 (+3.19%) — Strong earnings reaction
  • Chevron (CVX) 235.48, +4.02 (+1.74%) — Better-than-expected earnings
  • Walmart (WMT) 123.51, +2.26 (+1.86%) — Defensive standout
  • Mondelez (MDLZ) 64.92, +2.39 (+3.82%) — Defensive standout
  • Coca-Cola (KO) 94.08, +1.26 (+1.36%) — Defensive standout
  • Starbucks (SBUX) — Modestly lower; Q4 EPS of $0.80 beat expectations, revenue $9.14 bln (-4.5% yr/yr) in line; FY27 guidance light on revenue due to China licensing transition

Stock Spotlight

Intel (INTC) was the single largest driver of Friday’s market-wide selloff, plunging $26.31 (-28.58%) to close at $65.76 following a disappointing Q4 guidance release. Management flagged weakening PC demand amid a backdrop of rising memory prices and supply constraints that are curbing Intel’s ability to capitalize on otherwise robust data center demand. Compounding investor concerns, Intel indicated it does not expect positive cash flow until 2027, intensifying scrutiny over the AI infrastructure buildout’s near-term economics.

The fallout extended well beyond Intel itself, dragging PC manufacturers HP Inc. (-9.58%) and Dell (-10.80%) sharply lower on shared end-market demand concerns, while reinforcing broader anxiety that pushed the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 7.3% and below its 200-day moving average — a key technical breakdown. The Intel report effectively crystallized the week’s dominant narrative: aggressive AI-related capital spending increasingly colliding with investor skepticism about near-term returns, a theme that also touched Amazon, Alphabet, and other mega-cap growth names throughout the week.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries finished the week on a firmly higher note, with 10s and 30s turning positive for the week and shorter tenors extending gains. The move came even as crude oil held near $104/bbl, which had been expected to act as a counterweight to the rally.

Yield Changes (Session / Week-to-Date):

  • 2-Year: 4.59% (-7 bps session / -9 bps week)
  • 3-Year: 4.65% (-8 bps session / -10 bps week)
  • 5-Year: 4.72% (-8 bps session / -9 bps week)
  • 10-Year: 4.93% (-6 bps session / -6 bps week)
  • 30-Year: 5.31% (-2 bps session / -1 bp week)

Yields across the curve are now down roughly 40 basis points from their October highs, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain for the Treasury complex. Key drivers included safe-haven flows out of equities amid the tech selloff, St. Louis Fed President Musalem (non-voter) speaking in favor of additional measured rate hikes, and continued speculation over potential military action against Iran following Tuesday’s midterm elections. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% to 101.89 (+0.1% week-to-date). USD/JPY stood at 157.53 and EUR/USD at 1.1165.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude: $104.06/bbl, +2.0% — Added just under $1.00/bbl for the week amid Iran-conflict speculation
  • Gold: $3,899.00/ozt, -3.3%
  • Copper: $6.48/lb, -1.8%

Overseas Markets

Asian markets closed the week sharply lower, pressured by the tech-related volatility emanating from U.S. mega-cap earnings:

  • South Korea: -3.5%
  • Japan (Nikkei): -2.1%

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% as expected, while acknowledging its price target has been reached; the central bank will increase annual ETF sales to JPY860 billion from JPY330 billion starting in January. Japan’s October Tokyo Core CPI came in at +2.6% yr/yr (as expected), Tokyo CPI +2.8% yr/yr (below the +3.3% expected), and CPI ex-food/energy +2.4% yr/yr. September Industrial Production rose +2.2% m/m (vs. +1.2% expected) and Retail Sales +2.3% yr/yr. Unemployment held at 2.4%.

South Korea’s September Industrial Production surged +9.0% m/m (+1.2% yr/yr) and Retail Sales rose +3.6% m/m.

In Europe, Eurozone Q3 GDP grew +0.4% q/q (+1.3% yr/yr), topping the +0.2% consensus, while the Unemployment Rate held at 6.5%. Germany’s Q3 GDP rose +0.2% q/q (+1.2% yr/yr). France’s Q3 GDP contracted -0.1% q/q (-0.1% yr/yr) with October CPI accelerating to +3.4% yr/yr. Italy’s GDP was flat (0.0% q/q, +0.8% yr/yr) while October CPI jumped to +5.4% yr/yr. Spain’s Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q (+2.7% yr/yr), with CPI steady at +4.9% yr/yr. The U.K.’s October Nationwide HPI was flat m/m (+0.5% yr/yr).

Economic Data

  • Q3 Employment Cost Index: +0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%), following a +0.9% Q2 reading. Wages/salaries rose +0.7% while benefits rose +0.9%. Wages and salaries for civilian workers were up +3.1% year-over-year — continuing to undershoot inflation and feeding concerns about pressure on discretionary spending activity.
  • Chicago PMI: 55.3 in October, down from 58.8 in September, signaling a moderation in regional manufacturing activity.

Looking Ahead

Monday:

  • Final October S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 56.0) — 9:45 ET
  • September Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.100 mln; prior 7.079 mln) — 10:00 ET
  • September Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.9%) — 10:00 ET
  • October ISM Manufacturing (consensus 54.7; prior 54.5) — 10:00 ET
  • U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Financing Estimates — 15:00 ET

Tuesday:

  • September Business Inventories (prior 0.4%) — 10:00 ET
  • September Factory Orders (consensus 1.2%; prior 0.1%) — 10:00 ET

Wednesday:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.4%) — 7:00 ET
  • October ADP Employment Change (consensus 75,000; prior 90,000) — 8:15 ET
  • September Trade Balance — time/details pending

Investors will continue to monitor AI-related capex commentary and credit market reaction to leveraged AI financing, which remain the dominant theme heading into the new trading week following Friday’s semiconductor-led rout.