Market Analysis

Market Summary — Post market — 2026-10-30

By WaveRider AI8 min read

Market Summary

U.S. equities closed out a turbulent week with sharp losses on Friday, October 30, as an intensifying correction in AI-related stocks dragged the major averages lower into the close. The Nasdaq Composite led the retreat, tumbling 747.73 points (-2.85%) to 25,457.43, while the S&P 500 shed 140.32 points (-1.82%) to settle at 7,580.14, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 572.25 points (-1.09%) to 51,770.52. All three indices had recovered somewhat from steeper intraday lows — the Nasdaq was briefly down nearly 4.0% — but finished firmly in the red as semiconductor and mega-cap technology names bore the brunt of the selling.

The session’s defining story was a semiconductor rout triggered by Intel’s disastrous post-earnings reaction, compounded by continued fallout from Amazon’s results and ongoing skepticism about the AI capital-spending cycle. The PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 7.3% and closed below its 200-day moving average, a clear sign of deteriorating technical momentum. Unlike Thursday’s session — when strength outside mega-cap tech offset index-level losses — Friday’s selling was far more broad-based, with the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index down 0.8% and small- and mid-cap stocks also under pressure.

Defensive positioning was the week’s clear rotation theme. Energy (+1.9%), Consumer Staples (+1.4%), Utilities (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.4%), and Real Estate (+0.2%) all advanced even as Information Technology (-4.3%) collapsed. Treasuries caught a safe-haven bid despite firmer crude prices, and yields fell across the curve for a fourth consecutive week, underscoring investor anxiety about the durability of AI-driven earnings growth and the mounting cost of the infrastructure buildout.

Market Snapshot

IndexLevelChange% Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average51,770.52-572.25-1.09%
Nasdaq Composite25,457.43-747.73-2.85%
S&P 5007,580.14-140.32-1.82%

Breadth (NYSE/Nasdaq):

  • NYSE: Advancers 998, Decliners 1,715, Volume 1.57 bln
  • Nasdaq: Advancers 1,091, Decliners 3,366, Volume 9.04 bln

WaveFinder Breadth Indicators:

  • Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 790 / Bears 1,427)
  • 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 107 / Bears 729)
  • 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
  • 9-Month Bulls: 11 / Bears: 77 (Follow-Through: 30.43%)
  • % of Stocks Above 20-Day SMA: 56%
  • % of Stocks Above 40-Day SMA: 49.72%

YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +13.3%, S&P Mid Cap 400 +10.8%, S&P 500 +10.7%, Nasdaq Composite +9.4%, DJIA +7.7%

Sector Performance

RankSectorPerformance
1Energy+1.9%
2Consumer Staples+1.4%
3Utilities+0.6%
4Health Care+0.4%
5Real Estate+0.2%
6MaterialsN/A (not specified)
7Consumer Discretionary-0.9%
8Communication Services-1.1%
9Industrials-1.6%
10FinancialsWeak (specific % not disclosed)
11Information Technology-4.3%

Notable volatility context (WaveFinder ATR): Utilities (3.46%, rising, P100) and Materials (3.05%, rising, P100) showed the highest realized volatility readings, while Technology ATR (-1.92%, P5) remains compressed relative to recent history despite the sector’s steep decline — suggesting the sell-off is occurring against a backdrop of still-low technology volatility ranking.

Key Earnings & Movers

Decliners:

  • Intel (INTC) 65.76, -26.31 (-28.58%) — Disappointing Q4 guidance; cited weakening PC demand amid rising memory prices and supply constraints limiting its ability to meet data center demand.
  • Reddit (RDDT) 91.67, -37.93 (-29.27%) — Sharp earnings-driven decline.
  • Sandisk (SNDK) 1,151.43, -178.62 (-13.43%) — Beat estimates, but modest revenue guidance upside and seasonal caution overshadowed strong Datacenter growth.
  • Dell (DELL) 424.16, -51.35 (-10.80%) — Weighed down by Intel’s weak PC demand commentary.
  • HP Inc. (HPQ) 28.78, -3.05 (-9.58%) — Same PC demand read-through from Intel.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) 204.78, -8.88 (-4.16%) — Broad semiconductor pressure, AI-expectation concerns.
  • Alphabet (GOOG) 278.22, -4.10 (-1.45%) — Extending post-earnings retreat.
  • Amazon (AMZN) 240.35, -3.44 (-1.41%) — Earnings miss, negative free cash flow, concerns over 2027 infrastructure spending plans despite accelerating AWS growth.

Advancers:

  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 927.89, +109.12 (+13.33%) — Strong earnings reaction.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) 1,417.54, +43.84 (+3.19%) — Continued earnings-driven strength.
  • Mondelez International (MDLZ) 64.92, +2.39 (+3.82%) — Defensive buying.
  • Chevron (CVX) 235.48, +4.02 (+1.74%) — Better-than-expected earnings, supported by crude strength.
  • Walmart (WMT) 123.51, +2.26 (+1.86%) — Defensive rotation.
  • Coca-Cola (KO) 94.08, +1.26 (+1.36%) — Defensive rotation.

Stock Spotlight

Sandisk (SNDK) was one of the session’s most notable semiconductor casualties, plunging 13.43% to $1,151.43 despite posting results that beat expectations on both lines. Adjusted EPS of $49.51 topped the $46.67 FactSet consensus, and revenue rose 23% sequentially to $11.03 billion versus the $10.72 billion expected. Datacenter revenue surged 61% sequentially to $4.8 billion, lifting its share of total revenue to 43.5% from just 11.7% a year earlier, supported by enterprise SSD adoption and three U.S. hyperscaler customers. Adjusted gross and operating margins reached a robust 85.1% and 80.4%, respectively.

Despite the strong headline beat, shares sold off sharply as Q2 revenue guidance of $12.2–$12.6 billion came in only modestly above the $12.31 billion consensus, and management struck a cautious tone on fiscal Q3 seasonality without issuing formal guidance. Consumer revenue also declined 29% sequentially to $397 million as higher pricing pressured demand. The company does carry significant contracted visibility — eight NBM customers underpin $93.9 billion of minimum contracted revenue at floor pricing, with 95% involving investment-grade counterparties — and management forecasts roughly 40% Datacenter NAND bit-demand growth in calendar 2027. Still, the muted near-term guidance overshadowed the long-term contractual strength, reinforcing the day’s broader narrative of elevated expectations colliding with incrementally cautious outlooks across the semiconductor complex.

Bond Market & Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries finished the week on a firmly higher note, logging a fourth consecutive weekly advance with yields across the curve now down roughly 40 basis points from their October highs.

TenorYieldDaily ChangeWeekly Change
2-Year4.59%-7 bps-9 bps
3-Year4.65%-8 bps-10 bps
5-Year4.72%-8 bps-9 bps
10-Year4.93% (4.929%)-6 bps-6 bps
30-Year5.31%-2 bps-1 bp

Treasuries attracted safe-haven buying despite a rising price of oil, which otherwise would have pressured the complex. St. Louis Fed President Musalem (non-voter) spoke in favor of additional rate hikes at a measured pace. The 10-year note traded +15/32 in price terms. USD/JPY settled at 157.53 and EUR/USD at 1.1165, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.2% to 101.89 (trimming its weekly gain to just 0.1%).

Commodities

CommodityPriceDaily Change
WTI Crude Oil$104.06/bbl+2.0%
Gold$3,899.00/ozt-3.3%
Copper$6.48/lb-1.8%

WTI crude settled just above $104/bbl, adding just under $1.00/bbl on the week amid persistent speculation of additional military action against Iran following Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Overseas Markets

Asia: Markets closed the week on a weak note, pressured by overnight AI-related earnings jitters out of the U.S. South Korea fell 3.5% and Japan dropped 2.1%. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% as expected, but acknowledged its price target has been reached and announced it will increase annual ETF sales to JPY860 billion from JPY330 billion starting in January. Japanese data were mixed: October Tokyo Core CPI +2.6% yr/yr (in line), Tokyo CPI +2.8% yr/yr (below the +3.3% expected), September Industrial Production +2.2% m/m (beat), and Retail Sales +2.3% yr/yr (below expectations). South Korea’s September Industrial Production jumped +9.0% m/m, Retail Sales rose +3.6% m/m. Australia’s Q3 PPI came in at +1.1% q/q and +3.6% yr/yr.

Europe: Eurozone Q3 GDP grew +0.4% q/q (+1.3% yr/yr), topping expectations, while the September Unemployment Rate held at 6.5%. Germany’s Q3 GDP rose +0.2% q/q (+1.2% yr/yr); its October Unemployment Rate was steady at 6.4%. France posted a Q3 GDP contraction of -0.1% q/q (-0.1% yr/yr), with October CPI running hot at +3.4% yr/yr. Italy’s Q3 GDP was flat (0.0% q/q) while October CPI surged to +5.4% yr/yr. Spain’s Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q (+2.7% yr/yr), with October CPI steady at +4.9% yr/yr. The U.K.’s October Nationwide HPI was flat month-over-month (+0.5% yr/yr).

Economic Data

  • Q3 Employment Cost Index: +0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%), following a +0.9% increase in Q2. Wages and salaries rose +0.7% while benefits increased +0.9%. Year-over-year, civilian worker wages and salaries were up 3.1%, continuing to undershoot inflation — a trend likely to keep pressure on discretionary spending.
  • Chicago PMI: 55.3 in October, down from 58.8 in September, signaling a moderation in regional manufacturing activity.

(Note: Thursday’s Q3 GDP-Advance of 3.4% and PCE inflation data, while influential to this week’s macro backdrop, were released in the prior session.)

Looking Ahead

Monday, Nov 2:

  • Final October S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 56.0) — 9:45 ET
  • September Job Openings (consensus 7.100 mln; prior 7.079 mln) — 10:00 ET
  • September Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.9%) — 10:00 ET
  • October ISM Manufacturing (consensus 54.7; prior 54.5) — 10:00 ET
  • U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Financing Estimates — 15:00 ET

Tuesday, Nov 3:

  • September Business Inventories (prior 0.4%) — 10:00 ET
  • September Factory Orders (consensus 1.2%; prior 0.1%) — 10:00 ET
  • U.S. Midterm Elections conclude

Wednesday, Nov 4:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.4%) — 7:00 ET
  • October ADP Employment Change (consensus 75,000; prior 90,000) — 8:15 ET
  • September Trade Balance — details pending

Markets will continue monitoring the fallout from this week’s mega-cap tech earnings (Amazon, Intel, Alphabet) for further guidance on AI capital expenditure plans, along with any escalation in Iran-related geopolitical headlines that could continue to support crude oil prices.