Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the week on a strong note Friday, September 25, as a sharp reversal in crude oil and encouraging signals on U.S.-Iran diplomacy broadened what had been a narrow, tech-led advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major averages, surging 478.64 points (+0.93%) to 51,828.53, while the S&P 500 added 39.28 points (+0.51%) to close at 7,743.51 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 129.34 points (+0.48%) to finish at 27,089.76. The Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) also turned positive after spending much of the morning in the red.
The session’s dominant catalyst was a sharp reversal in WTI crude, which fell 2.7% to settle at $92.17/bbl on reports that U.S.-Iran talks had entered a “technical phase” with a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement in focus. That relief helped ease inflation concerns and gave cover for a broadening of the rally beyond mega-cap technology names, with eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. Information technology (+1.0%) and industrials (+0.9%) paced the advance, aided by a 1.4% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and a 3.66% jump in Microsoft (MSFT). Energy (-0.9%) and communication services (-0.7%), pressured by the oil pullback and a Meta Platforms (META) giveback, were the session’s laggards.
For the week, the cap-weighted indices posted solid gains — the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, and the DJIA snapped a three-week losing streak with a 0.3% advance — but participation remained uneven. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.0% on the week, and the Russell 2000 declined 0.8%, underscoring that semiconductor and mega-cap growth leadership masked broader softness tied to a sharp rise in Treasury yields earlier in the week.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones | 51,828.53 | +478.64 | +0.93% |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.51 | +39.28 | +0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,089.76 | +129.34 | +0.48% |
Breadth (NYSE/Nasdaq):
- NYSE: 1,513 advancers vs. 1,203 decliners; volume 1.06 bln shares
- Nasdaq: 2,588 advancers vs. 2,291 decliners; volume 7.32 bln shares
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics (as of 9/25/26):
- Primary Trend Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 422 / Bears 640)
- Short-Term (4%) Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 140 / Bears 115)
- 40-Day SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 40%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 21.02%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 8 / 5 (Follow-Through: 28.57%)
The divergence between constructive headline index gains and a bearish primary-trend breadth reading reinforces the narrative of narrow, mega-cap/semiconductor-driven leadership masking weaker participation underneath.
Sector Performance
Ranked by available session performance data (Briefing.com Industry Watch + narrative detail):
1. Information Technology — Strong; sector +1.0%; PHLX Semiconductor Index +1.4%. ATR 1.61% (rising, P100) — highest volatility percentile of any sector.
2. Industrials — Strong; sector +0.9%, led by Bloom Energy (BE) +8.27%. ATR -1.94% (flat, P58).
3. Materials — Strong (per Briefing Industry Watch); specific % not disclosed. ATR -1.80% (flat, P0).
4. Financials — Strong; sector +0.5%. ATR -1.66% (falling, P16).
5. Health Care — Not specifically detailed for the session. ATR 2.22% (rising, P74) — second-highest volatility.
6. Consumer Staples — Not specifically detailed for the session. ATR -1.01% (flat, P42).
7. Consumer Discretionary — Not specifically detailed for the session. ATR -1.75% (flat, P37).
8. Real Estate — Weak; sector -0.4%. ATR -3.27% (flat, P5).
9. Communication Services — Weak; sector -0.7%, pressured by Meta Platforms pullback. ATR -0.99% (falling, P5).
10. Energy — Weak; sector -0.9% on the crude oil reversal. ATR -0.95% (falling, P0).
11. Utilities — Not specifically detailed for the session (was week’s/month’s weakest sector overall). ATR -4.62% (falling, P5) — most negative volatility reading.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Microsoft (MSFT) — $516.17, +$18.24 (+3.66%). Notable mega-cap and DJIA outperformer, helping drive the blue-chip index’s session-leading gain.
- Costco (COST) — $922.76, +$26.28 (+2.93%). Advanced on Q4 results featuring better-than-expected earnings, resilient comparable-sales growth, and improving membership renewal rates.
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) — $113.94, +$3.53 (+3.20%). Rallied on news of an expanded $11.6 billion, seven-year contractual commitment with Anthropic (see Stock Spotlight).
- Bloom Energy (BE) — $288.70, +$22.05 (+8.27%). Led industrials-sector strength amid continued enthusiasm for semiconductor/AI-infrastructure-linked names.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $751.66, -$25.93 (-3.33%). Pulled back following its substantial “Muse”-driven rally in recent weeks, weighing on communication services.
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) — Iridium stockholders approved the merger agreement, a largely procedural but important step advancing RKLB’s end-to-end space strategy; deal remains on track for a mid-2027 close.
- Scholastic Corp (SCHL) — Traded sharply lower after Q1 (FY27) results showed weaker sales, a wider adjusted operating loss ($88.7 mln vs. $81.9 mln), and heavier cash usage ($110.8 mln outflow vs. $100.2 mln), though management reaffirmed FY27 guidance.
Stock Spotlight
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) was one of the session’s standout movers, surging 3.20% to $113.94 after significantly expanding its relationship with Anthropic through an $11.6 billion contractual commitment spanning seven years — with potential additional commitments bringing the total relationship value to as much as $20 billion. The deal validates Akamai’s push into AI infrastructure and positions the company as a key beneficiary of accelerating enterprise AI compute and delivery demand.
The announcement lands amid a broader market narrative in which mega-cap and AI-infrastructure-linked names have been the primary source of index-level strength throughout September, even as the broader market — captured by the equal-weighted S&P 500’s monthly decline — has struggled under the weight of rising Treasury yields. Akamai’s move illustrates how large, multi-year AI infrastructure commitments continue to reward companies positioned as critical suppliers to the AI buildout, a theme that has also lifted semiconductor names and mega-cap growth stocks more broadly.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries staged a roller-coaster session but finished the cash session on a firmer note, with yields easing from intraday highs (2-yr reached 4.91%, 10-yr touched 5.22%) as oil’s sharp decline eased inflation angst and the market found itself in a short-term oversold condition.
Yield Levels (Daily / Weekly Change):
- 2-yr: 4.85%, -6 bps (+10 bps for the week)
- 3-yr: 4.93%, -6 bps (+9 bps for the week)
- 5-yr: 4.99%, -5 bps (+12 bps for the week)
- 10-yr: 5.16%, -2 bps (+16 bps for the week)
- 30-yr: 5.49%, +2 bps (+16 bps for the week)
Shorter-dated securities outperformed longer-dated issues in a curve-steepening trade. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 64.2% probability to another 25-basis-point rate hike at the October FOMC meeting. Notably, the 10-yr yield touched 5.18% earlier in the week — its highest level since 2007 — before Friday’s modest relief.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $92.17/bbl, -$2.51 (-2.7%) — driven by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold: $4,320.50/ozt, +0.5%.
- Copper: $6.77/lb, -0.1%.
- Silver: Not reported in available data.
For the week, WTI finished down nearly 4% despite significant volatility, including a mid-week rebound above $96/bbl amid uncertainty over Hormuz negotiations.
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European index levels were not included in today’s data set. Currency market activity, however, provided some cross-market signal:
- USD/JPY: 157.14, -1.1% — a notably strong, steady move by the yen.
- EUR/USD: 1.1400, +0.2%.
- GBP/USD: 1.3252, +0.2%.
- USD/CNH: 6.7231, +0.1%.
- The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% on the session, largely attributable to yen strength.
- Notably, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented that an undervalued currency is “problematic” (Bloomberg).
Economic Data
- August Durable Goods Orders: 0.0% m/m (Briefing.com consensus: -0.4%; prior revised to +0.9% from +1.1%).
- August Durable Goods ex-Transportation: +0.3% m/m (consensus: +0.5%; prior revised to +0.7% from +0.4%).
- Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (business spending proxy): +1.6% m/m, following a +0.6% increase in July — a notably robust reading signaling continued economic strength.
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, September): 48.1 (consensus: 47.8; preliminary: 47.8; final August reading: 51.7; year-ago level: 55.1). Elevated prices continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and the short-run outlook for business conditions.
Market impact: The durable goods/capital spending data reinforced an economy in growth mode (Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate: 5.0%), which has contributed to the month’s sharp rise in Treasury yields, even as Friday’s session was more directly driven by oil-price relief than by the data itself.
Looking Ahead
Week Ahead (September 28 – October 2):
- Monday: No U.S. economic data of note.
- Tuesday: July FHFA Housing Price Index; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; September Consumer Confidence; September JOLTS (Job Openings).
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; September ADP Employment Change; August Personal Income and Spending (including the PCE Price Index — a key inflation gauge); Q2 GDP Third Estimate; August Advance International Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories; September Chicago PMI; EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
- Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims; September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Final); August Construction Spending; September ISM Manufacturing Index; EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
- Friday: September Employment Situation Report; August Factory Orders.
Markets will keep a close eye on Wednesday’s PCE inflation data as a key input for the October FOMC meeting, where futures currently price a 64.2% probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will also be closely watched for confirmation of the labor market strength implied by recent business-spending data.