Market Summary
The U.S. equity market opened the week with significant headwinds amid geopolitical tensions following the collapse of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the Trump administration’s declaration of a port blockade, including the Strait of Hormuz. Early losses were deepened by softer-than-expected earnings at Goldman Sachs and rising crude oil prices (WTI up 7.1% to $103.46/bbl overnight). However, a pronounced reversal unfolded as the session progressed: broadening strength, a pullback in oil (WTI settling at $98.97), and renewed diplomatic hope—sparked by reports of a potential in-person meeting with Iran before the ceasefire expires—reversed early losses. Tech leadership, particularly in software, drove the rally, with the Nasdaq (+1.23%) and S&P 500 (+1.02%) reclaiming all YTD losses from the Iran conflict. The S&P 500 closed at 6886.24, recovering its entire Iran-related drawdown; the Dow (+0.63% to 48218.25) and Russell 2000 (+1.5%) also posting solid gains. Financials and Consumer Discretionary led sectors, while defensive Utilities and Consumer Staples lagged. Market breadth was broadly supportive: 1959 NYSE issues advanced (1959 advs vs. 771 decs) and 3511 Nasdaq issues advanced (3511 advs vs. 1250 decs), reflecting strong participation.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|——-|——-|——–|———-|
| S&P 500 | 6886.24 | +69.35 | +1.02% |
| Dow Jones | 48218.25 | +301.68 | +0.63% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 23183.74 | +280.84 | +1.23% |
| Russell 2000 | — | +1.5% | — |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | +1.1% | — |
NYSE Breadth: Advancers: 1,959 | Decliners: 771 | Volume: 1.18B
Nasdaq Breadth: Advancers: 3,511 | Decliners: 1,250 | Volume: 7.97B
WaveFinder Market Breadth:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish
- Primary Bulls: 857 | Bears: 844
- % Above 20 SMA: 75%
- % Above 40 SMA: 59.41%
- 4% ATR Sentiment: Very Bullish (4% Bulls: 386 vs. Bears: 41)
Sector Performance
| Sector | Daily Change | Notes |
|——-|————–|——-|
| Financials | +1.7% | Top performer; broad strength, only GS (-1.87%) lagged despite EPS beat |
| Information Technology | +1.3% | Software led (iShares GS Software ETF +5.4%); Oracle +12.71%, MSFT +3.64% |
| Communication Services | +0.8% | Mega-cap strength supported gains |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.9% | Mega-cap leadership extended into this sector |
| Energy | +0.3% | Gains muted by oil pullback from $105 to $98.97 |
| Industrials | — | ATR +1.64% (rising, P100) – implied gain in mid-single digits |
| Materials | — | ATR +0.28% (rising, P100) — implied minor gain |
| Health Care | — | ATR -0.71% (rising, P100) — implies modest gain |
| Real Estate | — | ATR +0.54% (rising, P89) — implies modest gain |
| Consumer Staples | -1.0% | Worst-performing sector; Conagra -4.41% after CEO transition |
| Utilities | -1.2% | Worst sector by magnitude; defensive rotation out of sector |
Weak sectors per Industry Watch: Utilities, Consumer Staples
Strong sectors per Industry Watch: Energy, Information Technology, Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary
Key Earnings & Movers
- Oracle (ORCL): $155.64 (+$17.54, +12.71%) — Top S&P performer; best-in-class software rebound amid AI disruption fears easing.
- Microsoft (MSFT): $384.37 (+$13.50, +3.64%) — Mega-cap standout; Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF +1.5%.
- Goldman Sachs (GS): $890.79 (-$17.01, -1.87%) — Beat EPS but “sell the news” sell-off post-earnings; fixed-income revenue missed by ~$900M, though record GBM/M&A activity signals sector tailwinds.
- Conagra (CAG): $14.51 (-$0.67, -4.41%) — Worst S&P 500 mover; CEO Sean Connolly stepping down May 31; John Brase to succeed.
- Somnigroup (SGI): Modestly higher; acquiring Leggett & Platt (LEG +13.6% on deal) for $2.5B in all-stock deal to strengthen vertical integration in bedding.
- Revolution Medicines (RVMD): All-time highs (exact price not provided) on unprecedented Phase 3 pancreatic cancer survival data; daraxonrasib doubled median OS vs. chemo.
Stock Spotlight
Revolution Medicines (RVMD) soared to all-time highs following announcement of daraxonrasib’s Phase 3 RASolute 302 data in metastatic pancreatic cancer: a ~100% median overall survival increase over standard chemotherapy, representing a potential practice-changing breakthrough in a disease with minimal therapeutic progress. The registrational trial positions RVMD for accelerated FDA submission, with commercialization potentially within months rather than years. Analysts highlight the de-risked program, large unmet need (RAS mutations in majority of PDAC), and re-rated peak sales potential. While near-term volatility is expected, the magnitude of survival benefit shifts long-term revenue expectations materially—though valuation compression risk may follow the sharp rally. The move is deemed a watershed moment for both RVMD and oncology investing.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries ended the session with modest gains across the curve despite early geopolitical-driven weakness. Yields fell 2 bps across front- and intermediate maturities, and 1 bp on the 30-year:
- 2-Yr Yield: 3.78% (↓2 bps)
- 10-Yr Yield: 4.30% (↓2 bps)
- 30-Yr Yield: 4.90% (↓1 bp)
Movement reflected resilience in risk appetite and oil stabilization (WTI down from $105 to $98.97), as well as expectations that U.S.-Iran de-escalation remains possible. Treasury yields rose in early overnight trade (Japan’s JGB yields hitting cycle highs), but U.S. session bounce reversed early losses, consistent with equity recovery.
Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | % Change |
|———–|——-|————–|———-|
| WTI Crude | $98.97/bbl | +$2.42 | +2.5% |
| Gold | $4766.80/oz | -$20.50 | -0.43% |
| Silver | $76.65/oz | -$0.79 | -1.02% |
| Copper | $5.99/lb | +$0.11 | +1.87% |
| Nat Gas | $2.63/MMBtu | -$0.02 | -0.76% |
Note: Oil opened near $105 before retreating; copper rose amid risk-on sentiment and strong China chip exports (+152% yr/yr in early Apr).
Overseas Markets
- Europe (CET): DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.3% — muted reaction to U.S. geopolitical event; German energy/industrial pressures persist.
- Asia (local time): Nikkei -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai +0.1% — risk-off sentiment ahead of U.S. open, but Shanghai held up amid stimulus hopes and strong trade data.
Key driver: U.S.-Iran tension initially sent global equities lower, but U.S. reversal limited fallout; Asian markets also factoring in strong China export and loan data (CNY2.99T new loans vs. CNY3.465T expected).
Economic Data
March Existing Home Sales (13-Apr, 10:00 ET):
- Actual: 3.98M SAAR (consensus 4.01M)
- Revised Feb: 4.13M (from 4.09M)
- YoY: -1.0%
Drivers: Higher mortgage rates, limited inventory, softer job growth, and lower consumer confidence pressured activity at start of peak selling season.
Looking Ahead
- 6:00 ET: March NFIB Small Business Optimism (consensus 98.0; prior 98.8)
- 8:30 ET: March PPI & Core PPI (consensus +1.2% and +0.4% MoM, respectively)
- Pre-market (14-Apr): JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo Q1 earnings — key test of Goldman’s fixed-income softness: industry-wide or firm-specific?
- Geopolitical watch: Potential second in-person U.S.-Iran meeting before Friday’s ceasefire expiration; oil volatility likely to persist.
- Earnings season accelerates—tech and financials remain focal points; Q1 EPS growth consensus remains 12.5% with IT (+44.4%) and Financials (+2.77pp contribution) leading.