MARKET SUMMARY
The U.S. equity market opened the week on a note of resilience, erasing early-session geopolitical concerns to post broad gains across major indices. Despite initial losses triggered by the failure of U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks over the weekend and President Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, equities quickly rebounded amid optimism over potential renewed diplomacy—including reports of a planned second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the current ceasefire expires next week. Technology-led strength, a buy-the-dip rebound in software names, and a pullback in oil prices from overnight highs provided key tailwinds. The S&P 500 reclaimed all of its losses since the start of the Iran conflict and returned to positive territory for 2026, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.23% and 0.63%, respectively. Sector rotation was sharply tilted toward cyclical and growth-oriented areas, with financials and information technology emerging as top performers, while defensive sectors—utilities and consumer staples—underperformed. Broad-based participation, including strong mid-cap (S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.1%) and small-cap (Russell 2000: +1.5%) gains, signaled a risk-on tilt across the market.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|——-|——–|——–|———–|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 48,218.25 | +301.68 | +0.63% |
| S&P 500 | 6,886.24 | +69.35 | +1.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 23,183.74 | +280.84 | +1.23% |
| Russell 2000 | — | — | +1.50% (implied from narrative) |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | — | +1.10% (implied) |
Market Breadth (NYSE/NASDAQ):
- NYSE: Advancers 1,959 | Decliners 771 | Volume 1.18B
- Nasdaq: Advancers 3,511 | Decliners 1,250 | Volume 7.97B
WaveFinder Metrics (2026-04-13):
- Primary Sentiment: Bullish (699 Bulls vs. 433 Bears)
- 4% Sentiment: Very Bullish (463 Bulls vs. 65 Bears)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
- % of S&P 500 above 20 SMA: 92%
- % of S&P 500 above 40 SMA: 59.59%
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 45 (vs. 4 bears)
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
| Sector | Performance | Key Drivers | ATR (WaveFinder) |
|——–|————-|————-|——————|
| Financials | +1.7% | Record G&B/M&A activity; GS earnings beat, despite sell-the-news sell-off | 0.84% (↑) |
| Information Technology | +1.3% | Oracle +12.71%; software rebound; MSFT +3.64% | 1.52% (↑) |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.9% | Mega-cap strength; broader risk-on | –0.31% (↑) |
| Communication Services | +0.8% | Mega-cap momentum; fresh highs | 0.14% (↑) |
| Energy | +0.3% | Crude futures +2.5% to $98.97; pulled back from overnight $105 high | 0.85% (↓) |
| Industrials | — | — | 1.63% (↑) |
| Health Care | — | — | –0.71% (↑) |
| Materials | — | — | 0.27% (↑) |
| Real Estate | — | — | 0.54% (↑) |
| Consumer Staples | –1.0% | CAG –4.41% (CEO succession news) | –1.57% (↑) |
| Utilities | –1.2% | Defensive underperformance in risk-on environment | 0.87% (→) |
KEY EARNINGS & MOVERS
- Oracle (ORCL): +$17.54 (+12.71%) to $155.64 — Top S&P 500 gainer; software sector rebound from Friday’s AI disruption selloff.
- Microsoft (MSFT): +$13.50 (+3.64%) to $384.37 — Mega-cap standout; Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF +1.5%.
- Goldman Sachs (GS): –$17.01 (–1.87%) to $890.79 — EPS beat, but fixed income revenues $900M short of estimates; “sell the news” move after 1-month run-up.
- Conagra (CAG): –$0.67 (–4.41%) to $14.51 — CEO Sean Connolly to step down May 31, 2026; John Brase to succeed him June 1.
- Revolution Medicines (RVMD): Surging to all-time highs — Unprecedented Phase 3 OS data in pancreatic cancer (RASolute 302): median OS ~doubled vs. chemo. Regulatory filing expected soon, with potential accelerated approval.
- Somnigroup (SGI): Modest gain; agreed to acquire Leggett & Platt (LEG +13.6%) in all-stock, $2.5B deal for vertical integration. SGI shareholders to own ~91% of combined entity ($11.2B pro forma sales, 2025).
- FedEx: Reaffirmed guidance after CFO change; no price change specified in provided data.
STOCK SPOTLIGHT
Revolution Medicines (RVMD) delivered a watershed moment for oncology with its Phase 3 RASolute 302 trial in metastatic pancreatic cancer. Daraxonrasib demonstrated a roughly doubling of median overall survival vs. standard chemotherapy—an unprecedented benefit in a disease with minimal therapeutic progress over decades. The data de-risks the program and positions daraxonrasib as a potential new standard of care for second-line treatment of RAS-mutated pancreatic cancer (present in the majority of cases). With registrational data in hand, the company is poised to engage the FDA on accelerated pathways—including priority review—with commercialization potentially within months, not years. Analysts highlight the de-risked pipeline, massive unmet need, and scalable commercial opportunity as key drivers behind a likely re-rating of long-term peak sales estimates. The stock’s sharp rally reflects high confidence in regulatory approval and execution, though near-term volatility is expected as the market weighs profit-taking vs. upside potential.
BOND MARKET & TREASURIES
Treasuries finished the session with modest gains, yielding slightly lower across the curve despite earlier geopolitical jolts and a weak existing home sales report. Yields declined 1–2 bps, reflecting continued optimism over diplomatic de-escalation and stable oil prices.
- 2-Yr Yield: 3.78% (–2 bps)
- 10-Yr Yield: 4.30% (–2 bps)
- 30-Yr Yield: 4.90% (–1 bp)
The market remained resilient in the face of U.S.–Iran stalemate, with yields bouncing off earlier lows after oil pulled back from $105 and equities recovered. USD/JPY settled at 159.34 (+0.1%), EUR/USD at 1.1758 (+0.3%), and the USD Index fell 0.3% to 98.36—indicating broad-based dollar softening.
COMMODITIES
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | % Change |
|———–|——-|————–|———-|
| WTI Crude | $98.97/bbl | +$2.42 | +2.5% |
| Gold | $4,766.80/oz | –$20.50 | –0.43% |
| Silver | $76.65/oz | –$0.79 | –1.02% |
| Copper | $5.99/lb | +$0.11 | +1.87% |
| Nat Gas | $2.63/MMBtu | –$0.02 | –0.76% |
Crude oil moved in tandem with sentiment: surged past $105 overnight on blockade news, then retreated on hopes for renewed diplomacy, closing up 2.5% despite intraday volatility. Gold and silver fell modestly as risk appetite improved; copper rose, reflecting constructive industrial demand expectations.
OVERSEAS MARKETS
- Europe (Dow Jones indices):
– DAX (Germany): –0.2%
– FTSE (UK): –0.2%
– CAC (France): –0.3%
- Asia:
– Nikkei (Japan): –0.7%
– Hang Seng (Hong Kong): –0.9%
– Shanghai Composite: +0.1%
Japan’s 10-Yr JGB yields hit cycle highs overnight, pressuring regional equities. However, global equities reversed early losses after U.S. session optimism, and the Shanghai rise suggested limited spillover from U.S.–Iran tensions. Chinese economic data included strong export growth (April up 36.7% YoY; chip exports +152%) and robust credit expansion (CNY5.23T in March TSF), though loan growth fell short of expectations.
ECONOMIC DATA
- Existing Home Sales (March): 3.98M (saar), –3.6% MoM vs. consensus 4.01M and –1.0% YoY. Key pressures cited: higher mortgage rates, elevated prices, low inventory, weaker job growth, and softening consumer confidence.
- PPI & NFIB data due next session (per Bond Market Update):
– March PPI (Consensus: +1.2% YoY; Core: +0.4%)
– March NFIB Small Business Optimism (Consensus: 98.0 vs. prior 98.8)
The home sales miss contributed to modest Treasury gains and capped early equity moves, but did not override the broader risk-on sentiment later in the session.
LOOKING AHEAD
- Bank Earnings Watch: JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) to report before tomorrow’s open—critical for assessing whether GS’s fixed-income weakness was idiosyncratic or sector-wide.
- Macro Calendar: PPI and NFIB Small Business Index at 8:30 ET and 6:00 ET, respectively.
- Diplomatic Developments: Any updates on the proposed second U.S.–Iran meeting could drive volatility.
- Q1 Earnings Season Acceleration: Tech and financial sectors in focus; market expects IT to drive ~80% of S&P 500 earnings growth (12.5% blended rate).
- Geopolitical Risk Monitor: Oil volatility remains high, with near-term swings likely tied to ceasefire developments and OPEC+ compliance.