Market Summary — Post market — 2026-03-31

Market Summary

The U.S. equity market staged a powerful relief rally on March 31, 2026—the final trading day of March—driven by unexpected geopolitical de-escalation over Iran. After weeks of heightened tension following the February 28 U.S.–Israel military campaign, both U.S. and Iranian leaders signaled willingness to end hostilities: President Trump reportedly instructed aides he is prepared to cease military operations against Iran even without the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, and Iranian state media confirmed its president spoke by phone with the European Council, stating Iran is “prepared to end the war” under guarantees against further attacks—a material shift from prior rejection of ceasefire proposals. The market responded aggressively: the S&P 500 surged +184.90 to 6530.61 (+2.91%), the Nasdaq Composite gained +795.99 to 21590.64 (+3.83%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +1125.37 to 46340.40 (+2.49%). The rally featured broad participation, with mega-cap leadership supporting index gains, and gains doubled midday following confirmation of the Iran–EU call. Energy, utilities, and consumer staples lagged as risk-on sentiment favored growth-oriented sectors; communication services (+4.4%) and information technology (+4.2%) led the GICS leaderboard, powered by strong rebounds in Meta (+6.67%), Alphabet (+5.04%), NVIDIA (+5.62%), and the broader semiconductor index (+6.2%). Outside the large-cap indices, the Russell 2000 (+3.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) mirrored the broad market strength.

Despite today’s rebound, the indices closed March lower—Dow (-3.6% YTD), S&P 500 (-4.6% YTD), and Nasdaq (-7.1% YTD)—and remain pinned below their 200-day moving averages. The market’s resilience is tempered by elevated oil prices, which settled at $101.15/bbl (-$1.77, -1.7%) after peaking above $107/bbl, signaling that the energy shock remains incomplete. Bond yields rose modestly on month-end technicals but ended March with significant intramonth gains amid reduced expectations for Fed easing (2-yr: +42 bps in March, 10-yr: +35 bps), while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% for the month. Market breadth remains weak: WaveFinder reports a primary bearish sentiment (627 bears vs. 460 bulls), with only 39% of S&P 500 components trading above their 200-day SMA—indicating structural caution beneath today’s rally.

Market Snapshot

| Index | Level | Daily Change | % Change |
|———–|———–|——————|————–|
| DJIA | 46,340.40 | +1,125.37 | +2.49% |
| S&P 500 | 6,530.61 | +184.90 | +2.91% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 21,590.64 | +795.99 | +3.83% |
| Russell 2000 | — | — | +3.40% |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | — | +2.80% |

Advance/Decline (U.S. Equities)

• NYSE: Advancers 2,143 | Decliners 617 | Volume 1.74B
• Nasdaq: Advancers 3,877 | Decliners 966 | Volume 10.72B

Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 2026-03-31)

• Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Primary Bulls: 460 | Bears: 627)
• 4% Sentiment (Strong Bullish): 726 Bulls vs. 76 Bears
• % Above 200 SMA: 39.0%
• % Above 40 SMA: 27.68%
• 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 50%

Sector Performance

GICS Sector Rankings (Daily % Change)
(Based on Briefing.com Industry Watch + WaveFinder ATR & Performance)

| Sector | Daily Change | Weekly/Monthly Context |
|——–|————–|————————|
| Communication Services | +4.4% | Strongest performer; META, Google rebounding post-trial liability |
| Information Technology | +4.2% | Driven by semiconductors (PHLX Semicon index +6.2%); NVIDIA +5.62% |
| Health Care | +? (Top-tier gain, laggard yesterday) | ATR -2.27% (flat volatility); implied top-tier gain per sector flow |
| Consumer Discretionary | +? (Strong gain, per brief) | ATR -1.23% (flat); airlines (+8% UAL, +8% CCL) and travel lifted subsector |
| Financials | +1.0–1.5% (implied mid-tier gain) | ATR -1.03% (flat); no laggard label; solid broad performance |
| Industrials | +1.0–1.5% (implied) | ATR -1.35% (falling); likely modestly positive |
| Utilities | -0.1% | Weak performer; low volatility (ATR +1.43% flat), defensive rotate out |
| Consumer Staples | 0.0% (flat) | ATR -2.02% (flat); out of favor amid risk-on |
| Energy | -1.1% | Laggard; oil at $101.15 despite recent $34+ monthly run-up |
| Materials | -0.4% to -0.8% (implied) | ATR -1.30% (rising); weak relative amid commodity weakness |
| Real Estate | -0.5% to -1.0% (implied) | ATR -1.61% (falling); likely modestly negative |

Key Earnings & Movers

• Meta Platforms (META): $572.13 (+35.75, +6.67%) – Rebounded from social media addiction trial liability; strongest performer in Communication Services
• Alphabet (GOOG): $286.90 (+13.76, +5.04%) – Strong rebound in Tech, same catalyst as META
• NVIDIA (NVDA): $174.44 (+9.28, +5.62%) – Key semiconductor gainer; PHLX Semicon Index +6.2%
• onsemi (ON): $61.92 (+6.26, +11.25%) – Best-performing S&P 500 component
• United Airlines (UAL): $92.07 (+6.86, +8.05%) – Outperformer among transport stocks
• Carnival (CCL): $25.88 (+1.92, +8.01%) – Cruise stock lifted by oil stabilization
• Sysco (SYY): Recovering from ~15% drop yesterday; down slightly today (+1.2% to $71.33, implied); acquisition of Jetro ($29.1B EV) sees modest short-term bounce
• TD Synnex (SNX): Muted reaction to strong Q1 results (EPS $3.75–4.25 guide vs. $3.10 consensus; $17.16B revenue vs. $16.4B est.); likely held near flat
• McCormick (MKC): Down ~5% pre-close despite Q1 earnings; “mix creates global flavor leader, but leaves investors unsatisfied”

Stock Spotlight

TD Synnex (SNX) delivered its largest EPS beat in five years (Q1 non-GAAP EPS vs. $3.10 consensus: $3.75–4.25 mid-range) and delivered accelerating billings growth across both core distribution (+17% yy) and high-growth Hyve (+95% yy to $3.8B, up from 50% in Q4). Hyve’s evolution toward system-level AI/data center solutions suggests deeper, more durable customer integration. Gross margin expanded 43 bps to 7.30% and operating margin rose 70 bps to 3.44%. Q2 guidance ($3.75–4.25 EPS, $16.1–16.9B rev) beats consensus, implying ~10% rev growth (vs. Q1 pull-forward driven). Despite strong fundamentals, SNX saw muted market reaction—likely due to concerns about margin quality (Hyve operating margin down 72 bps yy on mix) and Q1’s modest OEM-related pull-forward. Still, management emphasized strong demand across both segments, positioning SNX as a high-conviction play on AI infrastructure and enterprise IT refresh cycles.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries closed March on a modest note—ending a volatile month with yields up significantly. On March 31, the 2-yr yield fell 3 bps to 3.80%, the 5-yr to 3.95%, the 10-yr to 4.31%, and the 30-yr to 4.89% (all -1 to -4 bps on day). However, monthly moves were steep: 2-yr +42 bps, 10-yr +35 bps—reflecting the collapse in rate-cut expectations. The 10-yr yield hit 4.311% intraday (quoted +7/32), and the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% on day to 99.92, narrowing March’s gain to +2.3%. Key drivers included month-end positioning, resilient global PMIs (ChinaManufacturing 50.4, Eurozone flash CPI 2.5% yy), and geopolitical de-escalation—especially the Iran–EU call and Trump’s ceasefire signal—which prompted both equities and Treasuries to rally midday. However, rate cut expectations remain subdued: Fed funds futures imply only a 63% chance of a 2026 cut (down from >90% in February), and the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns 37% probability to a December hike.

Commodities

| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | Notes |
|———–|——-|————–|——-|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $101.15/bbl | –$1.77 (-1.7%) | After $107.52 peak on March 30; settled above $100 for 6 consecutive sessions |
| Natural Gas | $2.88/MMBtu | –$0.01 | Stable |
| Gold | $4,679.50/oz | +$122.50 (+2.69%) | Best-performing base/precious; “safe haven” demand persists despite risk-on |
| Silver | $74.87/oz | +$4.24 (+5.99%) | Strongest industrial/commodity metal daily % gain |
| Copper | $5.61/lb | +$0.11 (+2.01%) | First positive daily close in 3 sessions; reflects some China demand optimism (PMI 50.4) |

Gold and silver outperformed as oil stabilized, suggesting investors view the Iran ceasefire narrative as incomplete—still requiring oil $100+ discount to historical levels for full de-escalation.

Overseas Markets

• Europe (March 31): DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.6% – Mild rallies as energy risks ease; German Ifo expectations improved (though 2026 growth outlook revised to 0.6% from 1.3%).
• Asia (March 31): Nikkei –1.6% (overbought pullback), Hang Seng +0.2% (China stimulus optimism), Shanghai –0.8% (domestic demand skepticism).
• Key Drivers: China’s March PMI (Manufacturing 50.4, Non-Manufacturing 50.1) marked return to expansion, while Eurozone flash CPI (2.5% yy) and Germany’s soft Q4 GDP (0.1% q/q) supported risk sentiment. South Korea announced a KRW26.2T war-related budget, and Germany’s Economic Institutes cut 2026 growth to 0.6% and raised 2026 inflation to 2.8%—highlighting persistent European vulnerability to energy volatility.

Economic Data

All data released March 31 was for February/January and showed mixed signals:

• January FHFA HPI: +0.1% (consensus 0.0%; prior revised to +0.3%)
• January S&P Case-Shiller HPI: +1.6% (consensus 1.3%; prior revised to +1.9%)
• March Chicago PMI: 52.8 (consensus 54.8; prior 57.7) — Missed and marked 5th straight month of deceleration
• March Consumer Confidence: 91.8 (consensus 88.0; prior revised to 91.0) — Strong upside surprise
• February JOLTs Job Openings: 6.882M (consensus 6.795M; prior revised to 7.240M) — Tighter than expected labor market

Key Insight: Despite strong consumer confidence and labor data, the 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 6.2% (from 5.5%)—the highest since August 2025—reflecting market concern over energy-driven inflation and geopolitical risk, even amid geopolitical optimism.

Looking Ahead

April 1, 2026 (First Trading Day of Q2)

• Market focus: Reclamation of technical levels. All major averages finished March below 200-SMA; today’s rally brings DJIA and S&P within ~1–2% of 200-DMA. Expect sustained buying if S&P breaks 6,550 resistance.
• Key data: March PPI (day open), March retail sales (10:00 ET), February wholesale inventories (11:00 ET).
• Earnings: Lululemon (LULU), PulteGroup (PHM), Dollar General (DG), and Macy’s (M) reported after March 31 close—preliminary reactions not yet incorporated.
• Catalyst watch:

– Strait of Hormuz status update (U.S./Iran/EU trilateral).
– OPEC+ formal statement on supply response to high prices.
– CME FedWatch updates post-PPI/retail sales—62% cut probability may rise if PPI/retail soften.

Market enters Q2 with elevated volatility (WaveFinder ATRs still elevated in Energy, Tech) and technical momentum restored—but structural concerns (oil >$100, below 200-DMA, inflation expectations rising) warrant cautious optimism.