MARKET SUMMARY
U.S. equities ended the session lower on Tuesday, 24-Mar-26, as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran amid escalating Middle East tensions—coupled with rising energy prices and shifting Fed expectations—dampened sentiment. The S&P 500 (−0.37%), Nasdaq Composite (−0.84%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (−0.18%) all closed in the red despite recovering from earlier losses, as strength in defensives and mid/small-caps partially offset mega-cap tech weakness. The market opened broadly lower but climbed into the afternoon, with the broader market—ex-Magnificent Seven—showing resilience; however, losses in Alphabet (−3.28%), Microsoft (−2.68%), and Meta (−1.84%) capped gains. Oil rebounded +4.7% to $92.29/bbl after Monday’s 10% drop, driving a +2.1% rally in Energy, the top S&P sector, while Materials (+1.7%) and Utilities (+0.7%) also outperformed. In contrast, Communication Services (−2.5%) and Information Technology (−0.7%) were the weakest sectors, with software and AI-heavy names under pressure as the iShares GS Software ETF declined 4.2%. The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) significantly outperformed the large-cap benchmarks. Yields rose across the curve, with the 10-yr Treasury yield settling at 4.39% (+6 bps), reflecting Treasury auction weakness and hawkish Fed sentiment amid revised productivity data and persistent geopolitical risk.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|———–|———–|————|————–|
| DJIA | 46,122.95 | −84.41 | (−0.18%) |
| S&P 500 | 6,558.36 | −24.63 | (−0.37%) |
| Nasdaq | 21,761.90 | −184.87 | (−0.84%) |
| Russell 2000 | — | — | +0.5% |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | — | +0.8% |
Market Breadth (NYSE/NASDAQ):
- NYSE: Advancers 1,360 | Decliners 1,394 | Volume 1.41B
- Nasdaq: Advancers 1,864 | Decliners 2,883 | Volume 8.55B
WaveFinder Metrics (24-Mar-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish
- % Stocks >40 SMA: 25.85%
- % Stocks >20 SMA: 26%
- Primary Bulls: 496 | Bears: 668
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 17.14%
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Top Performing S&P 500 Sectors (Daily):
1. Energy (+2.1%) — Oil rebound drove gains; Chevron and others advanced
2. Materials (+1.7%) — CF Industries (+5.61%), Mosaic (+4.73%) led
3. Utilities (+0.7%)
4. Consumer Staples (+0.1%) — Though gains pared in afternoon
5. Industrials — Near breakeven (per Industry Watch “Strong”)
6. Financials — Near breakeven (per Industry Watch “Strong”)
Underperforming Sectors:
7. Real Estate — (per Industry Watch “Weak”)
8. Consumer Discretionary (per Industry Watch “Weak”)
9. Information Technology (−0.7%) — Hardware (Lumentum +10.02%, Corning +8.49%) offset software weakness
10. Communication Services (−2.5%) — Alphabet (−3.28%), Meta (−1.84%) dragged
11. Health Care — ATR data indicates falling volatility (−2.65%); no daily sector return cited, but implied laggard
WaveFinder Sector ATR Volatility (24-Mar-26):
- Energy: +5.26% (flat, P100 → highest volatility)
- Health Care: −2.65% (falling)
- Consumer Staples: −2.32% (falling)
- Materials: −1.65% (falling)
- Tech, Discretionary, Comm Services, Real Estate: ATRs flat or falling
KEY EARNINGS & MOVERS
- Alphabet (GOOG): $289.20, −$9.82 (−3.28%) — Largest drag among Magnificent Seven
- Meta Platforms (META): $592.92, −$11.14 (−1.84%)
- Microsoft (MSFT): $372.74, −$10.26 (−2.68%)
- Estee Lauder (EL): $71.47, −$7.82 (−9.86%) — on confirmation of business combination talks with Puig
- CF Industries (CF): $126.92, +$6.74 (+5.61%) — top fertilizer gainer amid Strait of Hormuz volatility
- Mosaic (MOS): $25.22, +$1.14 (+4.73%)
- Lumentum (LITE): $801.99, +$73.04 (+10.02%)
- Corning (GLW): $142.09, +$11.12 (+8.49%)
- Dell (DELL): $176.98, +$12.39 (+7.53%)
- Tesla (TSLA): $384.25, +$3.40 (+0.89%) — only other M7 stock besides Apple to gain
- Apple (AAPL): $252.32, +$0.83 (+0.33%) — developing dedicated Siri app
After-Hours Highlights:
- Braze (BRZE): +18.5% — beats Q4 EPS, upgrades guidance, $100M share repurchase
- Arm Holdings (ARM): +6.6% — reaffirms Q4 guidance; $15B FY31 CPU revenue target
- AAR (AIR): +0.5% — Q1 EPS beat, strong Q4 revenue guidance
- KB Home (KBH): −4.9% — misses Q4 EPS and revs
- GameStop (GME): −0.1% — Q4 results reported
STOCK SPOTLIGHT
Concentrix (CNXC) plunged after Q1 earnings revealed significant margin compression: Non-GAAP EPS fell 6.5% YoY to $2.61, with operating margin sliding 180 bps to 11.8%—driven by AI investments (near-term dilution), offshore shift, and lower volumes in healthcare and tech. Q2 EPS guidance ($2.57–$2.69) and revenue ($2.46–$2.49B) disappointed, implying minimal top-line growth (1–2%) and persistent margin pressure. While full-year guidance was reaffirmed and AI pipeline remained strong, investors reacted to near-term earnings leverage being delayed, highlighting the trade-off between strategic repositioning and short-term profitability. Management cited “geopolitical uncertainty” and uneven demand as persistent headwinds—mirroring broader market concerns.
BOND MARKET & TREASURIES
- 2-yr yield: +10 bps to 3.93%
- 10-yr yield: +6 bps to 4.39%
- 30-yr yield: +3 bps to 4.94%
Treasuries reversed Monday’s gains, hitting fresh 2026 highs across maturities after the $69B 2-yr note auction tailed: high yield of 3.936% (1.8 bps over when-issued), bid-to-coverage of 2.44x (below 2.61x average), and direct bid share at 16.5% (vs. 29.7% avg). The reversal was exacerbated by renewed private credit concerns (Apollo/FSK redemption restrictions) and geopolitical risk. Currency markets saw USD strength (USD/JPY +0.4% to 158.94), while EUR/USD fell to 1.1586. The 2-yr note yield’s sharp rise signals tightening financial conditions and reduced Fed easing expectations.
COMMODITIES
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | % Change |
|—————|———–|——————|————–|
| WTI Crude | $92.29/bbl | +$4.10 | +4.7% |
| Natural Gas | $2.91 | +$0.02 | +0.69% |
| Gold | $4,401.00/oz | −$6.20 | −0.14% |
| Silver | $69.49 | −$0.19 | −0.27% |
| Copper | $5.46/lb | −$0.01 | −0.18% |
Crude oil rebounded sharply from Monday’s 10% drop amid uncertainty over Iran-U.S. talks and reports of non-hostile vessels regaining Strait of Hormuz access (per FT, 15:35 ET update), though that relief proved short-lived as talks remained stalled.
OVERSEAS MARKETS
Europe (24-Mar-26):
- DAX: −0.1%
- FTSE: +0.7%
- CAC: +0.2%
Asia (24-Mar-26):
- Nikkei: +1.4%
- Hang Seng: +2.8%
- Shanghai: +1.8%
Global equities showed resilience overnight despite rising oil and yields, supported by stronger-than-expected European manufacturing PMIs (Eurozone flash 51.4 vs. 49.4 expected), but Asian data (Korea, Australia, India services PMIs) were softer. Japan introduced gasoline subsidies and considered oil futures interventions, while China pledged fiscal support if oil remains elevated.
ECONOMIC DATA
- Q4 Productivity: Revised to 1.8% (vs. 2.5% consensus, prior 2.8% → 4.9%)
- Q4 Unit Labor Costs: Revised to 4.4% (vs. 3.1% consensus, prior 2.8% → −1.9%)
→ Impact: Confirmed structural cost pressures, reinforcing Fed’s “higher for longer” stance and delaying rate cut expectations.
- March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (vs. 51.6 prior)
- March S&P Global U.S. Services PMI: 51.1 (vs. 51.7 prior)
→ Impact: Modest resilience in both sectors; services dip suggests softening consumer demand.
LOOKING AHEAD
Key Events (25–26 Mar 26):
- 24-Mar (after hours): MDT Q4 EPS guidance (lowered)
- 25-Mar:
– 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index
– 8:30 ET: Q4 Current Account Balance, Feb Import/Export Prices
– 10:30 ET: Weekly EIA Crude Inventories (prior +6.16M)
– 13:00 ET: $70B 5-yr Treasury note auction results
- 26-Mar:
– March ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI
– Construction Spending,jobless claims
Earnings Watch:
- Medtronic (MDT): Q4 EPS guidance lowered
- KB Home (KBH): Weak Q4 results; shares down 4.9% in AH
- Concentrix (CNXC): Q1 earnings with Q2 downside guidance
Geopolitical developments remain the dominant near-term catalyst—especially progress (or lack thereof) in U.S.–Iran de-escalation. The Fed’s next move hinges on inflation data, oil stability, and labor market resilience, with market pricing now implying no cuts in 2026 and a 40%+ chance of a hike by October.