Market Summary
Equities are trading broadly higher at midday on Wednesday as investors position ahead of the FOMC’s 2:00 p.m. ET policy decision. The S&P 500 is up 32.81 points (+0.43%) to 7618.54, the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming with a gain of 203.92 points (+0.78%) to 26206.54, while the DJIA lags with a modest advance of 33.09 points (+0.06%) to 52126.20. The market is widely expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, with attention also turning to the Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference for signals on the pace of hikes into year-end.
A sharp pullback in crude oil is providing broad support, with WTI down roughly $4.00 (-3.8%) to $101.82/barrel at midday after settling above $105 yesterday. Semiconductor stocks are leading the tape higher, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 1.7-1.8% following a rebound from Monday’s slide that had fizzled in yesterday’s session. Information Technology (+0.9%) sits atop the sector leaderboard, aided by strength in AMD, Intel, and SK hynix, while Energy (-2.6%) and Financials (-0.6%) are the lone laggards as oil retreats.
Freight names are a notable pocket of weakness after J.B. Hunt flagged a meaningful fuel-cost headwind to Q3 earnings, dragging shares down nearly 13% and pressuring peers including Old Dominion, FedEx Freight, and UPS. Market breadth remains mixed: NYSE advancers lead decliners 1654 to 955, and Nasdaq advancers lead 2331 to 1699, though WaveFinder’s longer-term breadth gauges remain deeply stretched, with Primary Sentiment reading “Very Bearish” and only 13% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| S&P 500 | 7618.54 | +32.81 | +0.43% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26206.54 | +203.92 | +0.78% |
| DJIA | 52126.20 | +33.09 | +0.06% |
Advance/Decline (NYSE): 1654 advancers, 955 decliners, volume 214.16 mln
Advance/Decline (Nasdaq): 2331 advancers, 1699 decliners, volume 4.43 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 805 / Bears 943)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 122 / Bears 87)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- % of stocks above 20-day SMA: 13%
- % of stocks above 40-day SMA: 28.27%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 14 / 14 (Bull Follow-Through: 45.45%)
YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +15.7%, Nasdaq Composite +11.8%, S&P 500 +10.8%, S&P Mid Cap 400 +10.8%, DJIA +8.4%
Sector Performance
Based on Briefing.com’s Industry Watch and intraday commentary:
Strong (Outperforming):
1. Information Technology — +0.9% (leading the market; semiconductors up 1.7-1.8% on PHLX index)
2. Communication Services — outperforming (no specific % provided)
3. Industrials — +0.2% (mixed, as freight weakness offset broader strength)
4. Real Estate — outperforming (no specific % provided)
Weak (Underperforming):
- Energy — -2.6% (pressured by falling oil prices)
- Financials — -0.6%
Volatility Context (WaveFinder ATR, sector risk gauge, not performance):
Health Care shows the highest ATR reading (1.11%, falling, P11), followed by Communication Services (0.72%, falling, P21) and Energy (0.61%, falling, P0). Utilities (-2.99%) and Real Estate (-2.56%) show the most compressed/falling volatility readings, while Industrials (-2.04%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.90%) also show declining ATR alongside falling percentile ranks.
Note: Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Utilities were not explicitly ranked in today’s Industry Watch strong/weak categorization.
Key Earnings & Movers
- AMD (525.34, +21.14, +4.19%) — Rebounding alongside semiconductor peers after Monday’s selloff tied to AI-pacing concerns; data center accelerator TAM seen reaching ~$1.4 trln by 2030.
- Intel (INTC 101.58, +4.44, +4.57%) — Higher on reports of exploratory talks with SK hynix for a potential U.S. fab partnership tied to the delayed Ohio project.
- SK hynix (SKHY 179.38, +4.55, +2.60%) — Gaining on the same Intel partnership speculation plus resolution of a separate labor dispute.
- J.B. Hunt (JBHT 237.75, -35.30, -12.93%) — Sharply lower after guiding Q3 EPS to ~$1.72-1.81 (5-10% sequential decline) on a fuel-cost headwind estimated at $10 mln+ from Q2 to Q3.
- Old Dominion (ODFL 176.41, -4.55, -2.51%), FedEx Freight (FDXF 122.58, -4.36, -3.43%), UPS (99.80, -2.55, -2.49%) — Freight peers pressured on JBHT read-through.
- Karman Space & Defense (KRMN) — Trading modestly lower despite record $1.32 bln backlog and 58.2% yr/yr Q2 revenue growth; pullback reflects valuation reassessment amid aggressive M&A and negative 1H26 operating cash flow (-$3.0 mln).
Stock Spotlight
J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT 237.75, -35.30, -12.93%) is the session’s most significant mover after warning at a Morgan Stanley conference that Q3 earnings will decline 5-10% sequentially from Q2, implying EPS of roughly $1.72-1.81 — well below prior analyst expectations. Management cited some of the most abnormal fuel-price swings in company history, including record-high diesel costs, creating an estimated $10 mln+ sequential headwind. While fuel surcharges should eventually offset higher diesel costs, the lag between cost increases and pricing pass-through is pressuring near-term margins.
Importantly, JBHT indicated underlying freight demand remains strong, with Intermodal a particular bright spot driven by highway-to-rail conversion in its Eastern network and strength in the Transcon business; Final Mile was cited as the one notable soft spot. The guidance is reverberating across the freight sector, with direct read-throughs seen for ARCB, KNX, and SNDR (truckload/intermodal exposure) and potential pressure on LTL-focused names ODFL, SAIA, and XPO if elevated fuel costs aren’t fully offset by pricing. Briefing.com’s analysts flagged that other freight names could issue similar downside guidance heading into Q3 earnings season.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are modestly higher, padding early gains ahead of the FOMC decision. As of the 10:18 a.m. ET update:
- 2-yr: 4.63% (-3 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.72% (-4 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.79% (-4 bps)
- 10-yr: 4.967% (-3 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.34% (-2 bps)
The move follows Tuesday’s selloff, in which the 10-yr yield rose 4 bps to settle at 5.00% and the 2-yr rose 3 bps to 4.66%. Today’s stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report (+1.2% vs. 0.9% consensus) was initially digested without much yield pressure, and Treasuries extended gains over the following hour, aided by the pullback in oil prices. USD/JPY trades at 155.20 and EUR/USD at 1.1533. The market’s focus now shifts to the 2:00 p.m. ET rate decision and 2:30 p.m. ET press conference from Fed Chair Warsh for guidance on the future rate path.
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $101.82/barrel, down ~$4.00 (-3.8%) intraday (midday); yesterday settled $105.82 (+4.5%)
- Gold: Yesterday settled $4333.60/ozt (-18.70); overnight quote showed +1.4% to $4391.10/ozt
- Silver: Yesterday settled $63.84/ozt (-0.32)
- Copper: Yesterday settled $6.44/lb (+0.03); overnight quote showed +1.2% to $6.52/lb
- Nat Gas: Yesterday settled $2.92 (+0.03)
The sharp reversal in crude oil — down nearly 4% today after a ten-session run that took it to a late-May high above $105 — is a key tailwind for equities, easing inflation-adjacent cost concerns ahead of the Fed decision.
Overseas Markets
Europe (Tuesday close): DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.3%
Asia (Wednesday): Nikkei flat, Hang Seng -1.0%, Shanghai -0.5%
Key overseas developments: U.K. August CPI rose 3.1% yr/yr (second consecutive acceleration) with core CPI holding at 2.6% yr/yr for a fourth straight month; the Bank of England decision is due tomorrow, with no rate hike expected but a possible announcement of an end to active Gilt sales. Japan’s August trade deficit came in at JPY840 bln, narrower than the expected JPY1.00 trln deficit, as exports rose 19.3% yr/yr and imports rose 28.0% yr/yr. Eurozone July Industrial Production fell 0.1% m/m (in line), while Q2 Wages rose 3.0% yr/yr.
Economic Data
- Retail Sales (August): +1.2% m/m vs. +0.9% consensus; July revised up to -0.5% from -0.6%. Ex-auto sales surged +1.4% vs. +0.5% consensus. Core sales (ex-autos, gasoline, building materials, food services) jumped 1.4%, underscoring resilient consumer spending on goods.
- Import/Export Prices (August): Import prices +0.7% m/m (+7.0% yr/yr); ex-fuel +0.8% m/m (+5.5% yr/yr). Export prices +0.6% m/m (+8.6% yr/yr); ex-agriculture +0.7% m/m (+8.9% yr/yr).
- MBA Mortgage Index: -4.1% (prior -2.7%)
The stronger-than-expected retail sales data reinforced expectations for the Fed to proceed with today’s anticipated rate hike, with some speculation it could also support a further hike before year-end.
Looking Ahead
- 2:00 p.m. ET Today: FOMC policy decision and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — market expects a 25-bp hike to 3.75-4.00%.
- 2:30 p.m. ET Today: Fed Chair Warsh press conference — key focus on whether the hike is characterized as “hawkish” or “dovish” and guidance on the rate path into year-end.
- Thursday, Sep 17: Bank of England policy decision — no hike expected; possible announcement on halting active 20- and 30-year Gilt sales.
- Q3 Earnings Season Watch: Freight peers ARCB, KNX, SNDR, ODFL, SAIA, and XPO face scrutiny following J.B. Hunt’s fuel-cost guidance warning.