Market Summary — Midday — 2026-03-29

Market Summary

U.S. equities extended their week-long selloff on Friday, closing with broad losses across major indices amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793.47 points (-1.73%) to 45,165.53, the S&P 500 dropped 108.31 points (-1.67%) to 6,370.84, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 459.72 points (-2.15%) to 20,948.37. The weakness followed a similar pattern from Thursday, completing a volatile week in which oil-driven risk aversion and mega-cap weakness offset earlier gains. The market entered the session bearish with weak premarket futures, and pressure intensified as WTI crude climbed $5.08 (+5.4%) to $99.51/bbl—near $100/barrel for the first time since early March—amid unconfirmed reports of additional U.S. ground troops being deployed to the Middle East and ongoing doubts about de-escalation in the Iran conflict.

A pronounced rotational dynamic defined the session: defensive sectors—Energy (+1.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), and Utilities (+0.6%)—outperformed amid heightened volatility, while cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors, including Consumer Discretionary (-3.1%), Information Technology (-2.0%), Communication Services (-2.3%), Financials, Industrials, Health Care, and Real Estate, posted sharp declines. Mega-cap growth stocks were broadly under pressure, with all “Magnificent Seven” names finishing lower; Meta Platforms (-3.99%) led losses following a adverse jury verdict in a social media addiction case, while Amazon (-3.95%) and Tesla (-2.76%) also underperformed. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 fell -1.8% and -1.6%, respectively, despite earlier-week resilience. The CBOE Volatility Index surged 13.3% to 31.08, reflecting elevated anxiety ahead of the weekend.

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Market Snapshot

| Index | Level | Change (pts) | Change (%) |
|——————|————-|————–|————|
| Dow Jones (DJIA) | 45,165.53 | -793.47 | -1.73% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,370.84 | -108.31 | -1.67% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 20,948.37 | -459.72 | -2.15% |
| 10-yr Note Yield | 4.44% | +2 bps | — |

• NYSE: Advancers 599 / Decliners 2,153 | Volume 1.26 bln
• Nasdaq: Advancers 980 / Decliners 3,784 | Volume 8.77 bln
• WaveFinder Breadth (2026-03-27):

– Primary Sentiment: Bearish (4%: Very Bearish)
– Primary Bulls: 395 / Bears: 810
– % of Stocks Above 20 SMA: 37%
– % of Stocks Above 40 SMA: 22.43%

• YTD (as of 3/27):

– DJIA: -6.0%
– S&P 500: -7.0%
– Nasdaq: -9.9%
– Russell 2000: -1.3%
– S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.2%

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Sector Performance

| GICS Sector | Daily Change | Weekly Change | YTD Change | ATR (WaveFinder) | Trend |
|—————————-|————–|—————|————|——————|——-|
| Energy | +1.9% | +6.3% | +10.5% | +5.96% (rising) | Strong |
| Consumer Staples | +0.8% | +1.2% | — | -2.15% (falling) | Strong |
| Utilities | +0.6% | +2.9% | — | -0.79% (falling) | Strong |
| Materials | — | +4.2% | — | -1.64% (flat) | — |
| Communication Services | -2.3% | -7.2% | — | -1.62% (falling) | Weak |
| Information Technology | -2.0% | -3.5% | — | -1.25% (falling) | Weak |
| Consumer Discretionary | -3.1% | — | — | -2.45% (flat) | Weak |
| Financials | -2.0%* | — | — | -2.23% (rising) | Weak |
| Health Care | — | — | — | -2.99% (flat) | Weak |
| Industrials | — | — | — | -1.59% (falling) | Weak |
| Real Estate | — | — | — | -2.18% (falling) | Weak |

\ Financials sector estimated from component-level data: all but one component traded lower; Citigroup, Coinbase, and Robinhood were major drags.*

Energy was the sole gainer (+6.3% weekly), while Consumer Discretionary led weekly decliners (-7.2%). Sector rotation reflected strong inflows into defensive and commodity-linked equities amid oil-driven inflation fears.

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Key Earnings & Movers

• Entergy (ETR): $109.88 (+6.82%) — Top S&P 500 gainer; expanded agreement with Meta Platforms to support hyperscale data center in NE Louisiana
• Brown-Forman (BF-B): $27.24 (+5.83%) — Extension of Thursday’s gains after confirming acquisition interest from Pernod-Ricard
• Meta Platforms (META): $525.72 (-3.99%) — Worst performer among Magnificent Seven; extended Thursday’s selloff after jury found company liable in social media addiction trial
• Amazon (AMZN): $199.34 (-3.95%) — Weaker than broader market; contributing to IT/Comm Services drag
• Tesla (TSLA): $361.83 (-2.76%) — Underperformed; second consecutive down day after Thursday’s 3.5% gain
• Carnival (CCL): $24.19 (-4.31%) — Fell despite beating Q1 EPS and revenue; Q2/FY26 guidance weak on fuel cost assumptions ($90/bbl oil assumptions)
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): $18.49 (-6.85%) — Worst performer in Consumer Discretionary; peer selloff following Carnival’s guidance cut
• Coinbase (COIN): $161.14 (-7.06%) — Volatility from crypto; Bitcoin down 4%
• Robinhood (HOOD): $66.02 (-6.15%) — Linked to crypto weakness
• Datadog (DDOG): $114.48 (-7.90%) — Among worst S&P 500 components; software sector hit hard (IGV -3.6%)
• Citigroup (C): $107.32 (-4.53%) — Laggard after Bloomberg report (later denied) on regional bank acquisition interest

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Stock Spotlight

Unity Software (U) rallied sharply after raising Q1 revenue guidance to $505–$508M (vs. prior $480–$490M) and EBITDA to $130–$135M (implying 58% YoY growth vs. 18% in Q4). The outperformance stems from strength in Unity Vector, its AI-driven advertising platform, now expected to grow 15% sequentially (vs. prior 10%) and up 53% in its first three quarters. The company is exiting the declining ironSource Ads Network, shifting focus to higher-margin AI platforms. Strategic Grow (excluding ironSource) revenue is expected to rise 48% YoY, while Create revenue is up 3% to $155M, led by Strategic Create (+14% YoY). Despite strong execution, Unity remains vulnerable to AI disruption narratives—though management now views AI as a tailwind, not a threat.

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Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries ended a volatile week mixed, with yields hovering near 2026 highs. The 10-year yield closed at 4.44% (+2 bps, +5 bps weekly), while the 2-year yielded 3.92% (-6 bps daily, +3 bps weekly). The curve steepened slightly, with 2s10s spread expanding 2 bps to 52 bps.

• Key drivers: Iran-related uncertainty persisted into the weekend despite Trump’s extension of military deadline to April 6 and delaying energy strikes. Pentagon reports of additional troop deployment offset optimism from de-escalation hopes.
• Treasuries reopened losses early, then rebounded on 2-year strength, but long-end (30-yr +5 bps to 4.98%) lagged and finished negative for the week.
• Currencies: USD/JPY +0.4% to 160.27 (yen weakest since mid-2024); EUR/USD -0.2% to 1.1512
• Fed Watch: 37% probability of December 2026 rate hike (up from ~0% at year-end).

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Commodities

| Commodity | Price (3/27) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|———–|————–|————–|—————|
| WTI Crude | $99.51/bbl | +$5.08 (+5.4%) | +45% |
| Gold | $4,492.80/oz | +$113 (+2.6%) | — |
| Copper | $5.50/lb | +$0.03 (+0.6%) | — |
| Gasoline | $3.98/gal | — | — |

WTI closed just below $100 for the first time since March 3, reflecting renewed fears over Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions. Gold rose on geopolitical risk aversion and real yield pressures, while copper held firm on supply concerns.

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Overseas Markets

• Monday (3/23): Broad rally across Asia/Europe after Trump’s Truth Social post paused energy strikes. S&P 500 and DJIA briefly reclaimed 200-day MA; however, Iranian officials denied negotiations, derailing the rally.
• Weekly context: European and Asian markets were more severely impacted by energy supply shocks (greater import dependence). The MSCI EAFE underperformed U.S. indices by ~1.2% for the week.
• Japan: USD/JPY approached 160, prompting warning of possible intervention from Finance Minister Katayama.
• China: February Industrial Profit +15.2% YTD (vs. 0.6% in Jan), but U.S./Iran tensions are dampening export optimism.

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Economic Data

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, March):

• 53.3 vs. Prelim 55.5 / Consensus 55.5 / Prior 56.6
• Key driver: Large sentiment drops among middle/high-income households due to rising gas prices and falling equity values amid Iran war tensions
• Impact: Reinforced market concerns over consumer-driven demand slowdown in energy-intensive environment

Other releases (Friday):

• U.S. Dollar Index rose +0.3% daily to 100.15 (+0.7% weekly)
• Natural gas inventories: +54 bcf (vs. prior -54 bcf)

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Looking Ahead

Key events for the week of 3/30–4/3, 2026:

• Tuesday (3/30): January FHFA HPI, S&P Case-Shiller, March Chicago PMI, February JOLTS, March Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday (3/31): Weekly MBA Mortgage Index, ADP Employment Change, February Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing, EIA Crude Inventories
• Thursday (4/1): Initial Jobless Claims, February Trade Balance, January Business Inventories, Weekly Natural Gas Inventories
• Friday (4/2): Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 51K), Unemployment Rate (4.4%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.4% MoM)

Market catalysts:

• Resolution (or escalation) of Iran-U.S. diplomatic talks by April 6 deadline
• Fed’s tapering of T-bill purchases post–April 15 tax deadline
• Potential reassessment of earnings outlooks as oil remains near $100
• BTC stability post-4% rally in crypto following Friday’s selloff

Note: If Iran confirms de-escalation—including guaranteed Strait of Hormuz passage—the market may rally strongly on Monday. Absent clarity, volatility is likely to persist.