MARKET SUMMARY
The U.S. equity market closed sharply lower on Friday, March 20, 2026, marking a deterioration in sentiment amid escalating geopolitical tensions and rising macroeconomic pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 443.96 points (-0.96%) to 45,576.36, the S&P 500 dropped 100.01 points (-1.51%) to 6,508.47—just narrowly avoiding a close below 6,500—and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 443.08 points (-2.01%) to 21,647.62. The selloff extended the market’s decline for the week, with all three major averages breaking further below their 200-day moving averages and posting YTD losses of 5.0% (S&P), 5.2% (Dow), and 6.9% (Nasdaq). The primary catalysts were a renewed surge in crude oil prices (WTI climbing $2.41 to $98.12/bbl) and intensifying Middle East tensions, including reports that the Pentagon is deploying three warships and thousands of troops to the region—and potentially preparing for ground operations in Iran. This risk-off environment drove a broad-based selloff, with mega-cap tech and rate-sensitive sectors bearing the brunt. Treasury yields rose across the curve, pressing real estate and utilities, while the financials sector emerged as the sole gainer (+0.2%) on strength in insurance names.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—————|————-|————|———-|
| DJIA | 45,576.36 | -443.96 | -0.96% |
| S&P 500 | 6,508.47 | -100.01 | -1.51% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 21,647.62 | -443.08 | -2.01% |
| NYSE Adv/Dec | 416 / 2,632 | — | — |
| Nasdaq Adv/Dec| 1,139 / 3,673 | — | — |
| NYSE Volume | 4.69B | — | — |
| Nasdaq Vol. | 12.06B | — | — |
WaveFinder Breadth (20-Mar-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls: 447 | Bears: 787
- 4% Bull/Bear: 134 / 569
- % Above 20-SMA: 22%
- % Above 40-SMA: 18.78%
- 9-Month Bull/Bull Follow-Through: 5 / 11.54%
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
From most to least resilient:
1. Energy (+0.2% intraday → flat close; ATR +4.70%, rising, P74)
2. Financials (+0.2% gain; outperformed on insurance strength: MRSH +3.26%, AON +2.73%)
3. Consumer Staples (-0.2%; weak relative performance despite being best of the rest)
4. Utilities (-4.1% worst performer; VST -12.65%, CEG -10.90%)
5. Real Estate (-3.2%; pressured by rising yields: 10Y +11 bps to 4.39%)
6. Information Technology (-2.2%; SMCI -33.32%, MEM storage names down)
7. Communication Services (-1.5%; mega-cap drag)
8. Consumer Discretionary (-1.9%; broad weakness)
9. Industrials (ATR -1.28%, falling, P0)
10. Materials (ATR -2.71%, falling, P0)
11. Health Care (ATR -3.12%, falling, P0)
Note: Industry Watch list originally flagged Financials and Energy as “Strong,” and listed ten sectors as “Weak”—including Financials (likely reflecting sector-wide sub-group divergence: banking up, asset mgmt down). Final sector rankings align with WaveFinder sector ATR and intra-day movements.
KEY EARNINGS & MOVERS
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): -10.26 (-33.32%) @ $20.53 — CNBC report of employee charges related to chip smuggling into China
- Vistra Corp (VST): -21.17 (-12.65%) @ $146.20 — worst performer among utilities
- Constellation Energy (CEG): -34.48 (-10.90%) @ $281.99 — second-largest utility decliner
- FedEx (FDX): +2% — Q3 beat (EPS/revenue ↑8.3% YoY to $24.0B); raised full-year EPS & revenue guidance
- Unilever (UL): Under attention after confirming unsolicited $32–36B Foods business offer from McCormick (MKC)
- Planet Labs (PL): Gapped higher — Q4 EPS breakeven vs. loss expectation; revenue +41% YoY to $86.8M; FY27 rev guidance $415–440M (+39% YoY mid)
- Marsh McLennan (MRSH): +5.57 (+3.26%) @ $176.48
- Aon (AON): +8.64 (+2.73%) @ $325.63
STOCK SPOTLIGHT
Planet Labs (PL) delivered its third consecutive quarter of earnings beats, with shares surging to all-time highs after reporting Q4 FY26 results. The company reported breakeven EPS (vs. loss expectations), revenue up 41% YoY to $86.8M, and FY27 revenue guidance of $415–440M (+39% YoY at midpoint). Backlog rose 79% YoY to $900M, and RPO surged 106% YoY to $852M. The strong performance was driven by robust demand from defense, intelligence, and civil government customers amid heightened geopolitical and security needs, alongside a strategic pivot toward sovereign satellite services and AI-enabled geospatial analytics. While gross margin dipped to 57% (from 65% YoY) due to investment in new capabilities, PL remains EBITDA profitable (fifth consecutive quarter) and expects FY27 EBITDA between breakeven and $10M. The stock’s trajectory reflects growing recognition of PL as a scaled, strategic Earth intelligence platform—though continued margin pressure remains a key risk.
BOND MARKET & TREASURIES
Treasuries extended their three-week selloff, pushing yields to multi-month highs. As of 15:28 ET, yields rose:
- 2-yr: +6 bps to 3.89% (+16 bps this week)
- 5-yr: +9 bps to 4.01%
- 10-yr: +11 bps to 4.39% (+10 bps this week)
- 30-yr: +11 bps to 4.96%
The move reflects intensifying inflation concerns tied to energy prices (WTI >$98) and geopolitical risk. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns ~25% probability to a December hike, and the 10Y yield hit its highest level since late July. The USD rose 0.4% to 99.64, while EUR/USD fell to 1.1556.
COMMODITIES
- WTI Crude: +$2.41 (+2.5%) to $98.12/bbl
- Gold: -0.9% to $4,574.30/ozt
- Copper: -2.0% to $5.37/lb
Note: Gold sold off on rising real yields; copper weakness reflects broad risk-off demand destruction.
OVERSEAS MARKETS
While not detailed in the provided data, the Bond Market Update references international developments:
- China held LPRs steady (1Y: 3.00%, 5Y: 3.50%)
- ECB faces mounting pressure for a June hike (market now speculating April)
- UK 2Y yield up 16 bps (implied from US yield parity trend), and U.K. February Public Sector Net Borrowing beat (GBP14.30B vs. GBP8.70B expected)
- Eurozone trade surplus widened in January (EUR37.9B vs. EUR17.2B expected)
- Germany February PPI: -0.5% MoM (-3.3% YoY)
- New Zealand trade deficit narrowed sharply (NZD257M vs. expected NZD740M)
- Market pricing indicates 5Y UK gilt yields breached 5.00% (as of 20-Mar-26), and Australian 10Y yields topped 5.00% for the first time since mid-2011.
LOOKING AHEAD
Key calendar items (21–25 Mar 26):
- Mon (23Mar): Jan Construction Spending (10:00 ET)
- Tue (24Mar): Revised Q4 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (08:30); Flash S&P Global PMIs (09:45); $69B 2Y T-Note auction (13:00)
- Wed (25Mar): MBA Mortgage Index (07:00); Q4 Current Account (08:30); Import/Export Prices (08:30); Crude Inventories (10:30); $70B 5Y T-Note auction (13:00)
- Thu (26Mar): Initial/Continuing Claims (08:30); Natural Gas Inventories (10:30); $44B 7Y T-Note auction (13:00)
- Fri (27Mar): Final March U. of Michigan Sentiment (10:00)
Earnings watch: Micron (MU) earnings expected after close on Thursday (20Mar), following strong pre-market in WDC, SNDK.
Macro narrative risk: Oil price volatility, Pentagon deployment developments, and any shifts in Fed narratives ahead of Thursday’s FOMC minutes (March meeting held 18Mar). The market is now pricing in higher-for-longer, with growing attention to Q2 EPS resilience amid tightening financial conditions.